Monthly Blog Dump

I’ve been typing these posts in Word over the last few weeks. Rather than posting periodically, I’ve collected them. And now, I take a blog dump for your reading pleasure.

Random but Useful Poker Thoughts

Whenever I have to think for a long time about whether I should call a big bet, I am almost always behind. Like 99% of the time. If I can make a decision to call quickly, I am usually right.

Practice at a full cash table erodes my ability to play at 6-seat tables. I should practice both more often, in order to make the adjustment better. I played in a 6-seat table this last weekend [several weeks ago], and I found myself folding way too much and getting completely run over by re-raises pre-flop. When I played a hand to showdown, the starting-hand quality of the PF re-raiser was amazingly poor. I give way too much credit to a PF re-raiser in a 6-seat game.

Whenever I need to regain my balance or confidence in cash games, there is one solution that always works for me: tighten up. If I tighten up for a brief period (like a session or two, or maybe the first half of each new session), it’s usually a solid way to drag a few pots (although less frequently) and regain confidence. There are times, after taking a series of beats, where my sole goal is to simply win a pot and leave the table on the plus-side. Then repeat a few times, until confidence is restored.

If you can get your money in 10 times in a row as an 80-20 favorite, you might lose every one of those 10 hands. Bankroll management is the only way to compensate for these stretches.

****************

A Good Call

$2/4NL on FullTilt, I’m to the left of a player with a double stack that is habitually overbetting the pot. Massive overbetting. A hand usually went like this -- Overbettor raises to 4xBB in MP, 1 or 2 callers including BB. Flop is low cards, BB bets about 2/3 pot, which makes the pot about $80, and Overbettor pushes for $810. Everyone folds. He is building a massive stack because no one is willing to risk their stack with just a pair (and no one has flopped a great hand against him yet).

This is a giant on-line tell.

The hand:
Overbettor raises to 4xBB in EP, and I min-re-raise to 10xBB with AKo, to isolate. It works, everyone else folds and he calls, and we’re heads-up. Pot is about $86. Flop is 2-3-4r. Overbettor pushes for over $800 and has me covered. The moment I’ve been waiting for. I run through this analysis:

1. He does not have AA or KK, or he absolutely would have repopped PF. So, 2 aces and 3 kings are likely good outs if he even has a PP.

2. He probably would not just push here with a PP like 88, 99 or TT, because there is a very good chance with my re-raise PF that I have him crushed with a bigger PP. SO, I’m putting him on Ax, or a weaker random hand like JTs. But, it really feels like Ax.

3. I may have as many as ten outs if, by chance, he’s pushing with a PP (3 aces, 3 kings, 4 fives). So, my pot equity is probably at least 40%, and maybe much better if my read is right.

4. This fits his pattern of massive overbets when he whiffs.

I call. He shows ATs. But, the turn is a five and we chop. A moral victory, but damn it!

I’ve been the first player at this table to respond appropriately against his overbets, so he is pissed. He proceeds to berate me in the chat box, that I called with “nothing,” I’m a terrible player, etc. This made it all the more humorous, because it was one of my best on-line reads in a long time, and was due mainly to paying attention to his betting patterns for about an hour. I just wish there was a financial payoff from this skirmish. He left the table within one more orbit.

****************

WPT Championship -- 7 players left

From the Cardplayer blog:
“Thu Apr 26 23:13:00 PDT 2007
Mike Wattel raises to $420,000 and Paul Lee calls. Thomas Wahlroos re-raises all in for $4.35 million more from the big blind. Wattel quickly mucks and Lee calls with A Q . Wahlroos shows A 10 and the board comes J 8 2 2 5 . Wahlroos fails to improve and is eliminated in 7th place for $278,465. Exact chip counts for the remaining 6 players in the WPT $25,000 NLHE championship will follow. “

Are you fucking kidding me? On the WPT Championship TV bubble and this dude pushes with ATs, but he has 27 BBs left and 3 players have smaller stacks? If I were in his place, I would need to have less than 10BBs left to make this play with these cards. That is at least a $31,000 mistake based on the cash difference between 7th and 6th, and certainly a lot more in overall tournament equity.

I read some threads on 2+2 where some argued that this was a good, or great, move given the situation. Yeah, maybe if this was a $100 on-line tournament, and not the WPT Championship TV bubble with $31,000 on the line for 6th vs. 7th, and the opportunity for millions as the 3rd biggest stack at the table.

*******************

WPT Championship winner

Carlos Mortensen won it. This is the first time for me that I was actively rooting for a player to win a tournament. I was following the action closely on Cardplayer, and really pulling for Mortensen.

Back before the WPT, I watched an ESPN show on the WSOP 2001 Final Table. It was before the hole-cams, and a lot of the show focused on some guy they called “Big Country”, but it was the year that Mortensen won. As far as I can remember, it was the first poker show that I ever watched. I still have it on tape. I had been playing with friends in home games for about 8 years at that point, but it introduced me to the WSOP and big poker. I was hooked, and I really liked Mortensen’s demeanor at the table and in interviews. Since then, he’s been one of my favorite players. Until this 2007 WPT championship tournament, I’ve followed poker but never really pulled for anyone.

The WPT Championship is my dream tournament, and I will play in it some day. If someone offered me a free big tournament, I would take this tournament over the WSOP main event, and not just for the buy-in amount.

****************

Thursday Night Live Tournament + Cash Game

The Tournament

With my renewed interest in tournament poker, I played in the Thursday night Ameristar tournament. Each level is 20 minutes. During the first hour, 3 levels, I was the boss. I was playing great small-ball poker. I would raise to 3xBB with any playable hand (any pair, any two big cards, any suited connectors). I typically got one, maybe two callers. I would make a continuation bet, or raise if it was opened in front of me. During the first level, I showed down KK for the winner, T8s for the winner (flopped 2-pair) and 67s for the winner (straight on the turn). With this full range of hands, I had the table believing that I would play just about any two cards (and I was), and my betting patterns were consistent throughout, so no one had a clue about my hand and every flop was potentially scary.

I think I won maybe 20-30% of the hands during this hour. I was raising liberally and taking down pots constantly with modest continuation bets. I had a good read on the table and had a decent feel where everyone was at in each hand. I was focused and paying attention to all hands, even those that I did not play.

Just before the break, I raised UTG with AKs. Weakish player re-raises with a stack of about 900. He kinda looked like he was getting pissed off with my play, so maybe he was making a play back. I pushed, he called with QQ, and we race. I lose, and he takes a 900-chip bite out of my ass. The trouble with small-ball poker is that it doesn’t result in huge profits, and the big losing hands still significantly damage your stack.

So I was back to about where I started, and during the second hour the blinds escalate quickly to push-fest levels. No one had a stack for me to play small-ball poker, because either I was pushing, or any player that might call was forced to push due to his stack size. Also, during the second hour, I was completely card dead, an endless stream of J4 and K2 type hands. There was no room for maneuvering. Get a good hand and push, or fold. I dwindle down and busted shortly into the third hour. Tournament poker sucks again.

The Cash Game

So, I sat in the $2/5 NL cash game. The game was friendly and very loose pre-flop. Nearly the whole table routinely called. Occasionally, someone would raise the field with a premium hand, and all but maybe one would scatter. Otherwise, it was a decent table for post-flop play, which is what I really like.

I was nearing the end of my session. Every player but one limped to me in the BB, and I wake up with AA. Now here’s the dilemma with AA in this situation. I have two basic choices: (1) raise to something like $40 and chase everyone out, winning $5 from each player, or (2) raise a modest amount, to maybe $25, and invite the whole table in for a monster pre-flop pot. I chose the latter, since I had a good read on the table, and got 5 callers. Eep.

The flop was something harmless like K-8-4 rainbow, and I check-raised one MP player on the flop, winning a decent pot on the flop and escaping unharmed.

I decide to play one more orbit and then pack it in for the night. On the very next hand, the entire table limps to me in the SB, and I look down to see AA again! Same dilemma, compounded by the fact that I may have to make the same play again from the blinds. I again raise to just $25, and get only two callers (the guy to my right, on the button, actually said, “Not again. That’s enough with the bleeding chip thing to you.”)

The flop was Kh-Qh-8c. I open for $80. BB raises to $180 total, third player folds. I check things out, and BB looks nervous. I ask him to raise his arm, to see his chips, but he quickly counts out to exactly $235 behind. [Tell Theory: What does it mean when you just ask to see a stack that’s hidden, and the player counts out the stack without being asked?] If I just call, its probably all going in on the turn anyway. I think there’s about 50% chance that he has a flush draw with AhXh, maybe 40% chance that he has KQ, and 10% chance that he has AK. Here is a key decision-point of my read: I do not have the A-hearts, making it much more likely that he is on the nut-flush draw with the Ah.

So, I pushed. He called with KQ. Eep, again. Fortunately, I suck out with an Ace on the river, and I win about an $840 pot. My night is over and I end happy. Cash games rule.

**************

Swing Back to Tournaments

Cash games have gone somewhat cold for me, but my on-line SNG/tournament performance has picked up. Again, I am at a loss to explain why these swings occur.

During my February Vegas trip and for about two months thereafter, I absolutely sucked at tournaments/SNGs, but could do no wrong in cash games. My cash game play felt solid, the competition seemed weaker, and I was stacking players on a regular basis. My on-line bankroll hit an all-time high from cash games. I avoided SNGs and tournaments altogether.

About two weeks ago [now three], my cash game results slipped. I would open two tables and after about a half-hour I would be down about 10-15 BBs on each table. Generally nothing horrible, just not gaining any traction. Then, during one session, I dropped two buy-ins on two tables in quick succession. So the thought occurred to me that maybe it was time to switch back to SNGs.

And suddenly, I’m back on track with SNGs and tournaments. I’m cashing in about 6070% of my single table SNGs, and I’m winning about 4 of every 5 $50+2.50 heads-up SNGs.

There’s obviously distinct differences about the flow of cash games and SNGs/tournaments, but I still can’t put my finger on why I swing back and forth with strong performances between the two, but don’t perform well with both at the same time. My play is taking on about a three-month cycle. I’m learning to identify when the cycle is about to swing. Maybe I can anticipate when the swing will happen again, and make the switch before I drop on either. For example, when I initially experienced a slide in my cash game performance a few weeks back, I should have switched back to SNGs right away and avoided dropping a couple of buy-ins at the cash tables.