Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Aces

After several misplayed hands, I am starting to see that the old adage “win a small pot or lose a big pot with aces” is really true. Here is one trouble hand:

Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 5: SpeakEasy_ ( $219.10 )
Seat 4: Villain ( $197.25 )
SpeakEasy_ posts small blind [$1].
Rogue166 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SpeakEasy_ [ Ad As ]
Everyone fold to Button
Villain raises [$6].
SpeakEasy_ raises [$14].
BB folds.
Villain calls [$9].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2h, Qs, 6s ]
SpeakEasy_ bets [$18].
Villain calls [$18].

** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
SpeakEasy_ bets [$65].
Villain calls [$65].

** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
SpeakEasy_ is all-In [$121.10]
Villain is all-In [$99.25]
SpeakEasy_ shows [ Ad, As ] a pair of aces.
Villain shows [ Kc, Qh ] two pairs, kings and queens.
SpeakEasy_ wins $21.85 from side pot #1 with a pair of aces.
Villain wins $393.50 from the main pot with two pairs, kings and queens.

Critical analysis of the way I played this hand:
First, I think my PF raise is OK. I want to build a bigger pot, but I really don’t want to scare him away. He could have a wide range of hands, but if he calls its probably something other than complete junk. I could have raised more, to maybe $20, but I don’t think that would have changes the outcome.

On the flop, I almost certainly have the best hand. I probably bet too small, but he also probably calls a pot-sized bet anyway. So, this is somewhat of a mistake on my part, but it still gives me the information that I need to proceed -- he very likely has a queen. At this point, I’d put him on AQ, KQ, QJ or QT, probably not QQ, but that’s also possible. A heart draw is also likely. He could also have a set or AK, but that’s less likely.

I kind of goof on the turn. I think a smaller bet here gives me all the info that I need. I bet the pot, but if I bet maybe a 2/3 bet and get called this should still signal trouble. A 2/3 bet is enough to correctly price out the heart draw. If I make a slightly smaller bet here and get called, I should be thinking about seeing the cheapest possible showdown from this point forward and cross my fingers. AK becomes a possibility, because I would probably call here with AK also, but KQ is now a serious concern.

My river push is just awful. I should be trying to see the showdown without putting in any more money. He’s only going to call this if he has me beat, or possibly if he has AK. At the time, I was thinking that he was calling the turn with either a draw or AK. I didn’t think this through enough to give KQ enough serious consideration. A smaller bet would induce a bad call with AK, which I want. Just a horrible play on the river.

I’ve stacked players with similar hands. The most recent was my KJ vs AA. I raised in MP PF. Villain re-raised a substantial amount on the button, which I actually liked because I immediately thought AA. I flopped 2 pair, checked the flop, and he pushed.

Focusing on the bigger picture, AA usually just remains a one-pair hand all the way to the river. Most of my profit in NL cash games comes from sneaky sets, straights and flushes. I have learned to avoid big pots with one pair and even two-pair hands. A decent amount of my wins comes from playing the flop aggressively when I whiff, such as raising PF with AK or AQ, getting a raggedy flop, and simply betting big to represent a big PP. Usually this results in a fold unless my isolated opponent flopped a sneaky big hand or also has a decent overpair (TT or better).

But AA leads to frequent overplaying. My mentality is to continue to treat AA the same way as if I flopped a set, which is just assigning too much strength on the flop. The hand above is a perfect example. If I had JJ or TT instead of AA, I would naturally be much more cautious, and absolutely would not put my stack at risk. I think the best plan with AA going forward is to make the price seriously steep PF, and then treat my hand as I would treat TT or JJ on the flop, in terms of relative strength.

This way, I’m much less likely to get stacked in this manner again, and I’m getting my money into the pot when I am the clear favorite rather than when I might be the favorite. In a NL cash game, AA is the only hand where I should move the ‘pressure point’ to PF action, in order to avoid trouble and misplaying later, at the risk of telling the table what I’ve got PF. I’ll win the big money later with bigger hands.

Sunday, August 27, 2006

When Not To Push

Something to remember...

In this hand, my big turn bet looked like I was on a diamond draw, and also had the effect of getting lots of money in when I was the favorite. This then induces his river push (with a pitifully small remaining stack, unfortunately), because he thinks I missed my diamond draw. If I had pushed the turn, its almost 100% that he folds.

Now if I can only make this play work against a bigger stack.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Setting a Solid Player on Tilt

Here is the hand of the night (not the biggest pot, but the most interesting to analyze) from last Thursday night.

First, the set-up:

Villain is the same guy from this hand. Excellent player, sitting to my immediate left. He moved from another table when two short-handed tables consolidated. He’s clearly stuck, and he’s playing big pots with solid hands in an effort to double up.

On one prior hand, I has Ac-Kc in the SB. 6 limpers around to be. I think about raising, but just call. Villain then raises to $30. All but one other player folds. Villain has about $250 or so behind. I think about just pushing, because I think he’s on a steal. I should have pushed, but I just call. Flop is 8-4-2, and Villain pushes. Other player folds.. I think for a while then fold. I show him my AKs and say, “This could have been a fun hand.”

He looks surprised, and then shows me a deuce. I ask what he would have done if I had just pushed PF after his raise. He says, “Well, if I had pocket deuces I would have definitely called.”

I replied, “Yeah, like you didn’t.” He just smiles, confirming (I believe) that he hit a set of deuces on the flop. But that was an odd push rather then check if he hit his set, so maybe he really had junk, like the Hammer or something...

So, back to the hand in question.

I have about $1100 and have everyone covered. I am UTG with Kd-Qs, and I raise to $20. Four callers, including Villain. Pot is about $85.

Flop is Td-9d-3s. I bet out $40. Villain pushes. Everyone else folds. Pot is now $289, and its $129 more for me to call. I think for a long time, and here’s where I end up:

Villain has either has (1) a diamond flush draw, or (2) a decent but not great hand, like maybe a pair of tens, something like JT or AT. Since he’s stuck, I believe he would push a diamond flush draw. I don’t think he has a great land like a set or two pair because I’m fairly certain that he would have checked to induce a bet, and then pushed. I don’t think he has a big overpair, like AA through JJ -- I think he would have checked either of those hands, also, to induce a bet and then push.

So where does that leave me? I think that I have between 7 and 10 outs -- any J for the straight (maybe less the Jd), any K and any Q (maybe less then Qd). I run some calculations for all of these possibilities in my head and then say, “I’m getting over 2 to 1 on my money, so I think I have to call.”

He replies, “Ace king?”

I say, “No, not that good.” I show my K-Q and he reveals Q-T, no diamonds. Just about exactly one of the two hands that I put him on. So I actually have 7 outs, or runner-runner flush.

The final board is Td-9d-3s-Kc-8h, and I win with a pair of kings.

Villain starts berating me. “What a terrible call! Horrible!” He proceeds to stomp out of the poker room. Very uncharacteristic behavior -- he’s always been Mr. Cool. I guess he’s not used to losing. I wish he would have rebought, but it was late.

So I’ve been wondering ever since whether I calculated correctly and if the math backs up my decision. Was my call right? With calculator and pencil in hand, here’s what I come up with:

First his range of hands. Since I’m torn between flush draw and one pair, I’ll say 50% flush draw and 50% one pair. I think he would push with the nut flush draw or a lower flush draw. To run some calculations for the hands I’m guessing, lets say he has these combinations:

Ad-Xd -- 25% probability
6d-7d -- 25%
Q-T -- 50%

My equities for each hand:

Against Ad-Xd, he is a 75/25 favorite.
75% x -129 = -97
25% x +297 = 74
My total equity = -23

Against 6d-7d, he is a 55/45 favorite.
55% x -129 = -71
45% x +297 = 134
My total equity = 63

Against Q-T, he is a 69/31 favorite.
69% x -129 = -89
31% x +297 = 92
My total equity = 3

-23 x 25% = -6
63 x 25% = 16
3 x 50% = 1
My total equity for the hand is about +11. This is close to a coin flip, but this justifies a call.

If his hands was turned up and I could see his actual hand, its still a call, as my equity vs. Q-T alone is roughly a coin-flip but just positive.

So, I did calculate correctly in the heat of battle and made the right call. However, I don’t think I could ever convince him that I was right...

Friday, August 18, 2006

Thursday Night Live Play

Had another opportunity to play live tonight. Cash games and the Ameristar tournament.

First I started with some NL, won a few hundred. Then in the tournament, I came out of the gates firing. I played 3 of the first 4 pots. On the fourth hand, I hit a flush on the turn with Qd-7d, we got all the chips in the middle in a very large pot with lots of dead money, and one guy called my all-in bet with 2 pair. He hit a 4-outer for a boat on the river, and I was out in about 5 minutes of play.

The was actually fortunate. Next I sat in the $15/30 limit game, waiting for a NL seat. Won about a hundred. Then moved to a NL table with a bunch of old farts and one younger guy. I stacked the younger guy, then requested to move to the action table with lots of young guns.

I mopped up at that table. I started by played relatively loose pre-flop, tight on the flop, and just punished one guy mercilessly. He's a yappity guy that plays all the time, and acts very cocky. I initially took his stack of about $400, then he rebought out of frustration to come after me. I took some more of that. He eventually crapped out to someone else.

I'm not sure how much I won for the night -- I'll count tomorrow. The funny thing at this last table was that after I built up a stack of about $1400, I got junk for a really long time and didn't play anything. During one stretch, I think I folded for 3 straight orbits, while everyone else kept limping and calling standard raises. I was playing the tightest at the table with the biggest stack. There's just nothing good about playing T-2, J-5, 9-4, etc. There was so much limping with junk and calling that bluffing would have been useless.

When I did play a hand, it was relatively good, but still players kept calling when they were beat. One guy finally called out that I was playing pretty tight, and I was able to use his perception of my image to bluff him out of a good pot on the river. Paying attention to how others perceive you at the table is always important.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Saturday Night Variance

Before Saturday night, I’d been running good in August in NL cash games. I’ve posted wins in 12 of my 15 prior sessions in August for a total win of 253BBs.

Saturday night, I played in a multi-table SNG on FullTilt. I am at the final table with a 3800 stack. Blinds are a huge 300-600, in relation to the stacks. (The more I play SNG or tournaments on FullTilt, the less I like them – the levels are way too short.) Everyone but 2 or 3 players is in the “push or fold” zone. Folded to me on the button with KhJd. I push as a 60-40 favorite against a random hand, but BB calls with QQ so I am actually a 72-28 dog, and I’m out.

Soon thereafter, in a $1/2NL cash game, I flop a set of 555 in the BB in a 6-handed limped pot. I have less than a full stack. Board is 8-K-5 rainbow. I check, UTG bets the pot. I C/R all-in when it gets back to me after one caller. UTG calls with a set of 888, so I lose a buy in. I hate set over set – there’s just no way to avoid losing a big pot.

PartyPoker $1/2NL, I have AA in the cutoff with more than a full buy-in. Folded to me and I raise to $7. Button raises to $37. Folded around to me, I flat call, thinking he has AA, KK, AK, or maybe QQ with such a large PF raise. Flop is Ks-Qs-8d. Yuck, unless he has AK. I bet 2/3 pot, he raises the pot. I call, then push the turn of (Ks-Qs-8d)-3s. He calls with a set of KKK. I clearly should have folded to any aggression on the flop – my instincts immediately said “SET” on the flop, but I just ignored it in favor of AK, because my flat call could have made him think I had something less, like maybe JJ which would lead to his aggression with AK.

The damage for the night was about $370.

Now as I type this on Sunday, I’m over $600 on one $1/2NL table, so all is right again.

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Critical Self-Analysis

In a rare moment of openly critical self-evaluation, here are leaks and how I can improve my play. What are the causes of most of my losses and losing sessions?

Playing Tired --
On-line, I only play at night, after the kids are in bed. This is usually after 9:30 or 10:00. At this point in the evening, especially after a full day of work, I’m always tired to some degree. I should avoid playing on those nights when I’m really tired. I also have a tendency to play after midnight if the table is really good, or if I’m behind. I should set a mandatory quitting time at midnight and stick to it. If I’m ahead at the midnight hour is approaching, I should just stop and book a win.

For the rare live session, I only play on weekend evenings, and occasionally the Thursday night tournament at Ameristar. Since live sessions are such a rare event, I just play no matter how I’m feeling. To avoid being tired during these sessions, I should focus on getting some extra sleep in the few days before a live session. Maybe this means no on-live play in the night or two before a planned live session.

Play immediately after a bad beat --
This only applies to on-line play. Immediately after a bad beat, I am more prone to loosen up and ramp up my aggression. Its not really ‘tilt’, but it has some of the symptoms of tilting. For example, in my last on-line session, I took a beat with my QQ vs TT. After carefully coaxing his stack into the pot though action on all streets, villain spiked a ten on the river. A few hands later on another table, I overplayed J9 on a jack-high board, and villain called with KJ, beating me with a better kicker. On the river, he checked and I pushed (my remaining stack was about 60% of the pot size) -- my judgment was clouded and my only thought was that he missed a flush draw. I would not have built such a big pot with J9, and I would have checked behind on the river, if I had not just taken a bad beat. My punishment for this leak on this particular hand was nearly a full buy-in. Ouch.

Playing above my bankroll --
On-line, I still have the urge to play at the higher levels, since that’s closer to my play in live games. My July disaster as a result of playing above my on-line bankroll is well-documented in another post. I have to stay at the appropriate level until I build the bankroll back up, no matter how good I think I’m playing on any particular night.

Taking advantage of a problem --
One trend that I’ve noticed in my play is the psychological affect of the magic $1000 mark. If I have $700 in one particular account, for example, I play my very best poker in an effort to get that account up to $1000. This applies to tournaments, SNGs and cash games. Then when I get it up to $1200 or $1300, my play becomes more sloppy, because the next thousand-dollar increment, at $2000, is much farther away. To both combat this problem AND to take advantage of it, after I cross a $1000 increment, I should transfer funds to another site to keep that account a few hundred below the next $1000 mark. This way, I’m always striving to cross the $1000 threshold through better play, which is just within my reach. As I write this now, I realize how silly this is. But, its still true. I can take advantage by turning my problem into a game strategy.

August Goals

Stay with the Running Back Plan -- 2% bankroll wins per session.

Play about 60 table-hours in August.

Continue playing $.50/1 and recover from the mid-July “Playing Over My Bankroll” debacle until I reach $2000 on Party. Then, move back up to the $1/2NL game on Party. Continue to pound the $1/2NL game for 20+BB/table-hour on Party.

Get Party bankroll to $3000 by the end of August
Get FullTilt and Pstars bankrolls each to $1000+ by the end of August.

When my on-line bankroll reaches $5000, pull some $$ out and buy a Dell laptop and wireless modem. Continue to pound the $1/2NL games from other locations in my home.

Play at least one live Thursday night tournament at Ameristar. [DONE]
Play two live NL cash sessions.
Win at least $600 in live games/tournaments.

Play the CT Thursday night tournaments with more focus.

Don’t move up in levels too fast, and especially don’t move up when I hit a bad beat. Do not chase bad beat losses.

Build up the bankroll to play in bigger live games and tournaments, to pay for trips to Vegas and other fun stuff as rewards for my play.

Worst Fold Ever

This is easily the worst fold I've ever seen: http://www.pokerhand.org/?443630 . The pot is $366 and its another sixty cents for Villain to call. I'm sure I had him beat, but this is just a silly fold.

I put him on AK with my raise on the flop, but with his call maybe he had a jack. Then he bets the turn, so it could still be either of these hands, but less likely that he has AK with my flop raise. He must have assumed I had the flush on the river, but then why bet? Unless he has complete air, this is just a horrible fold. Even AK is obviously worth a call.