Aces

After several misplayed hands, I am starting to see that the old adage “win a small pot or lose a big pot with aces” is really true. Here is one trouble hand:

Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 5: SpeakEasy_ ( $219.10 )
Seat 4: Villain ( $197.25 )
SpeakEasy_ posts small blind [$1].
Rogue166 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SpeakEasy_ [ Ad As ]
Everyone fold to Button
Villain raises [$6].
SpeakEasy_ raises [$14].
BB folds.
Villain calls [$9].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2h, Qs, 6s ]
SpeakEasy_ bets [$18].
Villain calls [$18].

** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
SpeakEasy_ bets [$65].
Villain calls [$65].

** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
SpeakEasy_ is all-In [$121.10]
Villain is all-In [$99.25]
SpeakEasy_ shows [ Ad, As ] a pair of aces.
Villain shows [ Kc, Qh ] two pairs, kings and queens.
SpeakEasy_ wins $21.85 from side pot #1 with a pair of aces.
Villain wins $393.50 from the main pot with two pairs, kings and queens.

Critical analysis of the way I played this hand:
First, I think my PF raise is OK. I want to build a bigger pot, but I really don’t want to scare him away. He could have a wide range of hands, but if he calls its probably something other than complete junk. I could have raised more, to maybe $20, but I don’t think that would have changes the outcome.

On the flop, I almost certainly have the best hand. I probably bet too small, but he also probably calls a pot-sized bet anyway. So, this is somewhat of a mistake on my part, but it still gives me the information that I need to proceed -- he very likely has a queen. At this point, I’d put him on AQ, KQ, QJ or QT, probably not QQ, but that’s also possible. A heart draw is also likely. He could also have a set or AK, but that’s less likely.

I kind of goof on the turn. I think a smaller bet here gives me all the info that I need. I bet the pot, but if I bet maybe a 2/3 bet and get called this should still signal trouble. A 2/3 bet is enough to correctly price out the heart draw. If I make a slightly smaller bet here and get called, I should be thinking about seeing the cheapest possible showdown from this point forward and cross my fingers. AK becomes a possibility, because I would probably call here with AK also, but KQ is now a serious concern.

My river push is just awful. I should be trying to see the showdown without putting in any more money. He’s only going to call this if he has me beat, or possibly if he has AK. At the time, I was thinking that he was calling the turn with either a draw or AK. I didn’t think this through enough to give KQ enough serious consideration. A smaller bet would induce a bad call with AK, which I want. Just a horrible play on the river.

I’ve stacked players with similar hands. The most recent was my KJ vs AA. I raised in MP PF. Villain re-raised a substantial amount on the button, which I actually liked because I immediately thought AA. I flopped 2 pair, checked the flop, and he pushed.

Focusing on the bigger picture, AA usually just remains a one-pair hand all the way to the river. Most of my profit in NL cash games comes from sneaky sets, straights and flushes. I have learned to avoid big pots with one pair and even two-pair hands. A decent amount of my wins comes from playing the flop aggressively when I whiff, such as raising PF with AK or AQ, getting a raggedy flop, and simply betting big to represent a big PP. Usually this results in a fold unless my isolated opponent flopped a sneaky big hand or also has a decent overpair (TT or better).

But AA leads to frequent overplaying. My mentality is to continue to treat AA the same way as if I flopped a set, which is just assigning too much strength on the flop. The hand above is a perfect example. If I had JJ or TT instead of AA, I would naturally be much more cautious, and absolutely would not put my stack at risk. I think the best plan with AA going forward is to make the price seriously steep PF, and then treat my hand as I would treat TT or JJ on the flop, in terms of relative strength.

This way, I’m much less likely to get stacked in this manner again, and I’m getting my money into the pot when I am the clear favorite rather than when I might be the favorite. In a NL cash game, AA is the only hand where I should move the ‘pressure point’ to PF action, in order to avoid trouble and misplaying later, at the risk of telling the table what I’ve got PF. I’ll win the big money later with bigger hands.

When Not To Push

Something to remember...

In this hand, my big turn bet looked like I was on a diamond draw, and also had the effect of getting lots of money in when I was the favorite. This then induces his river push (with a pitifully small remaining stack, unfortunately), because he thinks I missed my diamond draw. If I had pushed the turn, its almost 100% that he folds.

Now if I can only make this play work against a bigger stack.

Setting a Solid Player on Tilt

Here is the hand of the night (not the biggest pot, but the most interesting to analyze) from last Thursday night.

First, the set-up:

Villain is the same guy from this hand. Excellent player, sitting to my immediate left. He moved from another table when two short-handed tables consolidated. He’s clearly stuck, and he’s playing big pots with solid hands in an effort to double up.

On one prior hand, I has Ac-Kc in the SB. 6 limpers around to be. I think about raising, but just call. Villain then raises to $30. All but one other player folds. Villain has about $250 or so behind. I think about just pushing, because I think he’s on a steal. I should have pushed, but I just call. Flop is 8-4-2, and Villain pushes. Other player folds.. I think for a while then fold. I show him my AKs and say, “This could have been a fun hand.”

He looks surprised, and then shows me a deuce. I ask what he would have done if I had just pushed PF after his raise. He says, “Well, if I had pocket deuces I would have definitely called.”

I replied, “Yeah, like you didn’t.” He just smiles, confirming (I believe) that he hit a set of deuces on the flop. But that was an odd push rather then check if he hit his set, so maybe he really had junk, like the Hammer or something...

So, back to the hand in question.

I have about $1100 and have everyone covered. I am UTG with Kd-Qs, and I raise to $20. Four callers, including Villain. Pot is about $85.

Flop is Td-9d-3s. I bet out $40. Villain pushes. Everyone else folds. Pot is now $289, and its $129 more for me to call. I think for a long time, and here’s where I end up:

Villain has either has (1) a diamond flush draw, or (2) a decent but not great hand, like maybe a pair of tens, something like JT or AT. Since he’s stuck, I believe he would push a diamond flush draw. I don’t think he has a great land like a set or two pair because I’m fairly certain that he would have checked to induce a bet, and then pushed. I don’t think he has a big overpair, like AA through JJ -- I think he would have checked either of those hands, also, to induce a bet and then push.

So where does that leave me? I think that I have between 7 and 10 outs -- any J for the straight (maybe less the Jd), any K and any Q (maybe less then Qd). I run some calculations for all of these possibilities in my head and then say, “I’m getting over 2 to 1 on my money, so I think I have to call.”

He replies, “Ace king?”

I say, “No, not that good.” I show my K-Q and he reveals Q-T, no diamonds. Just about exactly one of the two hands that I put him on. So I actually have 7 outs, or runner-runner flush.

The final board is Td-9d-3s-Kc-8h, and I win with a pair of kings.

Villain starts berating me. “What a terrible call! Horrible!” He proceeds to stomp out of the poker room. Very uncharacteristic behavior -- he’s always been Mr. Cool. I guess he’s not used to losing. I wish he would have rebought, but it was late.

So I’ve been wondering ever since whether I calculated correctly and if the math backs up my decision. Was my call right? With calculator and pencil in hand, here’s what I come up with:

First his range of hands. Since I’m torn between flush draw and one pair, I’ll say 50% flush draw and 50% one pair. I think he would push with the nut flush draw or a lower flush draw. To run some calculations for the hands I’m guessing, lets say he has these combinations:

Ad-Xd -- 25% probability
6d-7d -- 25%
Q-T -- 50%

My equities for each hand:

Against Ad-Xd, he is a 75/25 favorite.
75% x -129 = -97
25% x +297 = 74
My total equity = -23

Against 6d-7d, he is a 55/45 favorite.
55% x -129 = -71
45% x +297 = 134
My total equity = 63

Against Q-T, he is a 69/31 favorite.
69% x -129 = -89
31% x +297 = 92
My total equity = 3

-23 x 25% = -6
63 x 25% = 16
3 x 50% = 1
My total equity for the hand is about +11. This is close to a coin flip, but this justifies a call.

If his hands was turned up and I could see his actual hand, its still a call, as my equity vs. Q-T alone is roughly a coin-flip but just positive.

So, I did calculate correctly in the heat of battle and made the right call. However, I don’t think I could ever convince him that I was right...

Thursday Night Live Play

Had another opportunity to play live tonight. Cash games and the Ameristar tournament.

First I started with some NL, won a few hundred. Then in the tournament, I came out of the gates firing. I played 3 of the first 4 pots. On the fourth hand, I hit a flush on the turn with Qd-7d, we got all the chips in the middle in a very large pot with lots of dead money, and one guy called my all-in bet with 2 pair. He hit a 4-outer for a boat on the river, and I was out in about 5 minutes of play.

The was actually fortunate. Next I sat in the $15/30 limit game, waiting for a NL seat. Won about a hundred. Then moved to a NL table with a bunch of old farts and one younger guy. I stacked the younger guy, then requested to move to the action table with lots of young guns.

I mopped up at that table. I started by played relatively loose pre-flop, tight on the flop, and just punished one guy mercilessly. He's a yappity guy that plays all the time, and acts very cocky. I initially took his stack of about $400, then he rebought out of frustration to come after me. I took some more of that. He eventually crapped out to someone else.

I'm not sure how much I won for the night -- I'll count tomorrow. The funny thing at this last table was that after I built up a stack of about $1400, I got junk for a really long time and didn't play anything. During one stretch, I think I folded for 3 straight orbits, while everyone else kept limping and calling standard raises. I was playing the tightest at the table with the biggest stack. There's just nothing good about playing T-2, J-5, 9-4, etc. There was so much limping with junk and calling that bluffing would have been useless.

When I did play a hand, it was relatively good, but still players kept calling when they were beat. One guy finally called out that I was playing pretty tight, and I was able to use his perception of my image to bluff him out of a good pot on the river. Paying attention to how others perceive you at the table is always important.

Saturday Night Variance

Before Saturday night, I’d been running good in August in NL cash games. I’ve posted wins in 12 of my 15 prior sessions in August for a total win of 253BBs.

Saturday night, I played in a multi-table SNG on FullTilt. I am at the final table with a 3800 stack. Blinds are a huge 300-600, in relation to the stacks. (The more I play SNG or tournaments on FullTilt, the less I like them – the levels are way too short.) Everyone but 2 or 3 players is in the “push or fold” zone. Folded to me on the button with KhJd. I push as a 60-40 favorite against a random hand, but BB calls with QQ so I am actually a 72-28 dog, and I’m out.

Soon thereafter, in a $1/2NL cash game, I flop a set of 555 in the BB in a 6-handed limped pot. I have less than a full stack. Board is 8-K-5 rainbow. I check, UTG bets the pot. I C/R all-in when it gets back to me after one caller. UTG calls with a set of 888, so I lose a buy in. I hate set over set – there’s just no way to avoid losing a big pot.

PartyPoker $1/2NL, I have AA in the cutoff with more than a full buy-in. Folded to me and I raise to $7. Button raises to $37. Folded around to me, I flat call, thinking he has AA, KK, AK, or maybe QQ with such a large PF raise. Flop is Ks-Qs-8d. Yuck, unless he has AK. I bet 2/3 pot, he raises the pot. I call, then push the turn of (Ks-Qs-8d)-3s. He calls with a set of KKK. I clearly should have folded to any aggression on the flop – my instincts immediately said “SET” on the flop, but I just ignored it in favor of AK, because my flat call could have made him think I had something less, like maybe JJ which would lead to his aggression with AK.

The damage for the night was about $370.

Now as I type this on Sunday, I’m over $600 on one $1/2NL table, so all is right again.

Critical Self-Analysis

In a rare moment of openly critical self-evaluation, here are leaks and how I can improve my play. What are the causes of most of my losses and losing sessions?

Playing Tired --
On-line, I only play at night, after the kids are in bed. This is usually after 9:30 or 10:00. At this point in the evening, especially after a full day of work, I’m always tired to some degree. I should avoid playing on those nights when I’m really tired. I also have a tendency to play after midnight if the table is really good, or if I’m behind. I should set a mandatory quitting time at midnight and stick to it. If I’m ahead at the midnight hour is approaching, I should just stop and book a win.

For the rare live session, I only play on weekend evenings, and occasionally the Thursday night tournament at Ameristar. Since live sessions are such a rare event, I just play no matter how I’m feeling. To avoid being tired during these sessions, I should focus on getting some extra sleep in the few days before a live session. Maybe this means no on-live play in the night or two before a planned live session.

Play immediately after a bad beat --
This only applies to on-line play. Immediately after a bad beat, I am more prone to loosen up and ramp up my aggression. Its not really ‘tilt’, but it has some of the symptoms of tilting. For example, in my last on-line session, I took a beat with my QQ vs TT. After carefully coaxing his stack into the pot though action on all streets, villain spiked a ten on the river. A few hands later on another table, I overplayed J9 on a jack-high board, and villain called with KJ, beating me with a better kicker. On the river, he checked and I pushed (my remaining stack was about 60% of the pot size) -- my judgment was clouded and my only thought was that he missed a flush draw. I would not have built such a big pot with J9, and I would have checked behind on the river, if I had not just taken a bad beat. My punishment for this leak on this particular hand was nearly a full buy-in. Ouch.

Playing above my bankroll --
On-line, I still have the urge to play at the higher levels, since that’s closer to my play in live games. My July disaster as a result of playing above my on-line bankroll is well-documented in another post. I have to stay at the appropriate level until I build the bankroll back up, no matter how good I think I’m playing on any particular night.

Taking advantage of a problem --
One trend that I’ve noticed in my play is the psychological affect of the magic $1000 mark. If I have $700 in one particular account, for example, I play my very best poker in an effort to get that account up to $1000. This applies to tournaments, SNGs and cash games. Then when I get it up to $1200 or $1300, my play becomes more sloppy, because the next thousand-dollar increment, at $2000, is much farther away. To both combat this problem AND to take advantage of it, after I cross a $1000 increment, I should transfer funds to another site to keep that account a few hundred below the next $1000 mark. This way, I’m always striving to cross the $1000 threshold through better play, which is just within my reach. As I write this now, I realize how silly this is. But, its still true. I can take advantage by turning my problem into a game strategy.

August Goals

Stay with the Running Back Plan -- 2% bankroll wins per session.

Play about 60 table-hours in August.

Continue playing $.50/1 and recover from the mid-July “Playing Over My Bankroll” debacle until I reach $2000 on Party. Then, move back up to the $1/2NL game on Party. Continue to pound the $1/2NL game for 20+BB/table-hour on Party.

Get Party bankroll to $3000 by the end of August
Get FullTilt and Pstars bankrolls each to $1000+ by the end of August.

When my on-line bankroll reaches $5000, pull some $$ out and buy a Dell laptop and wireless modem. Continue to pound the $1/2NL games from other locations in my home.

Play at least one live Thursday night tournament at Ameristar. [DONE]
Play two live NL cash sessions.
Win at least $600 in live games/tournaments.

Play the CT Thursday night tournaments with more focus.

Don’t move up in levels too fast, and especially don’t move up when I hit a bad beat. Do not chase bad beat losses.

Build up the bankroll to play in bigger live games and tournaments, to pay for trips to Vegas and other fun stuff as rewards for my play.

Worst Fold Ever

This is easily the worst fold I've ever seen: http://www.pokerhand.org/?443630 . The pot is $366 and its another sixty cents for Villain to call. I'm sure I had him beat, but this is just a silly fold.

I put him on AK with my raise on the flop, but with his call maybe he had a jack. Then he bets the turn, so it could still be either of these hands, but less likely that he has AK with my flop raise. He must have assumed I had the flush on the river, but then why bet? Unless he has complete air, this is just a horrible fold. Even AK is obviously worth a call.

Best Hand So Far

I played live last Thursday – my single best night ever. About 30 minutes of $3/6 limit to pass the time while waiting for some real tables – down about $75. 1 hour of $2/5 NLHE cash games – won over $500. I absolutely tore that table up, and it was very hard to leave. Then the Ameristar Thursday evening 60 player tournament ($120 buy in), made the final table 2nd in chips, and 10 players chopped up the prize pool, with 1st and 2nd taking $1000.

Total win on the night was $1336. I’ve had bigger wins in a single evening (or during a single day in Vegas), but this was by best evening ever in terms of the quality of my play.

I was in a zone. With the exception of a couple of mistakes, my reads were dead on, and I was very patient. In the tournament, I played the aggressive bully when I was the big stack, which is so fun. I was never all-in for my tournament life. I didn’t get exceptionally lucky, I avoided getting unlucky, and generally I avoided relying on luck to weave my way through the tournament.

During the middle stage of the tournament, with blinds at 50/100, this hand came up:

I am BB. Folded to Villain on the button, who just limps in. I have played with Villain many times, and he is one of the best 3 or 4 players in KC that I have played against. I’ve played against with him at the $2/5 and $5/10 NL games, and I’ve watched him absolutely mop up. I’ve seen him leave with over $8000 in the $5/10 game. Extremely aggressive, very hard to read, calm as Phil Ivey, very observant. (He owns a chain of barbeque restaurants in KC, and the rumor is that he’s very well off.) I have him covered by a bit, but he is 2nd or 3rd in chips at the table behind me.

SB folds, and I check. I have no idea what Villain holds. Flop is Ah-Qs-8h. I check, and Villain bets 300. I call.

Turn is (Ah-Qs-8h)-3h. I lead out for 850 – the size of the pot. Villain thinks for about 10 seconds, and then folds KK face up and says, “That’ll teach me for trying to get cute.”

Looking back, I’m not exactly sure why I called on the flop. Something told me that I could possibly take this pot away later, or maybe that he was scared of the ace. When the turn card came out, I remember looking at him briefly and then making a pot-sized bet based on my read. I had no deep analytical thought about the hand – it was pure instinct. Without this type of strong read, I would have normally checked and probably abandoned ship. This is why I want to get more time at live play – to improve my reads and act at an instinctual level, without having to internally verbalize an analysis of the hand.

This may seem like a routine hand and it was actually a very minor skirmish in the tournament, but after he folded I was extremely proud of acting strongly based on my read. Especially since he is one the best players I’ve played against in KC, and he was easily the best player at my table.

I had 5d-5c.

A Classic Blunder

So I have been crushing the $1/2NL on Party, and last Thursday night I decide, “You know, I’m kind of bored with vanilla poker. I’m easily as good as the players at $2/4, $3/6, and probably $5/10. The $5/10 game is more the level that I play live. I can hang in those games on-line, easy.”

Well, that may be true, but when you only have several buy-ins and hit a bad stretch, it can be a bankroll crusher. So, in the course of 2 nights, I proceeded to dump back almost all of the profits since the beginning of June. A few bad beats lead to over-aggressive play to “get is back,” and poof, I’m back where I started.

A classic, stupid, bankroll management mistake. And the Running Back Plan has been working perfectly.

“Clearly, much of the stress and anxiety occurring in poker is a short
bankroll. This stems from a kind of paradox: In order for a win to have
meaning, we overplay our bankroll. But this in turn brings the
annoyance/anger factor into play and takes us off our dispassionate, detached
view.”

Zen and the Art of Poker, p.52.

Bingo. This is exactly what I was feeling. I need a bigger challenge. If I can make 23 BB at $1/2, then I can double or triple my net $win that at the next levels, right?. Well, maybe. But, I lost sight of the fact that if I hit a few bad beats it can have a devastating effect on my bankroll, especially if I amp up the aggression to get it back quickly.

So, its back to baby steps on the Running Back Plan. I’m resetting, and I commit to stick to the level that’s appropriate for my bankroll. Crush the level I’m on until I have enough to very comfortably move up and take several bad beats without the slighted affect on my overall bankroll.

The System at Work

The Running Back Plan results thus far:
10 days of play
30 levels achieved (2% of on-line bankroll per level)
23.5 table-hours
$1460 won at $1/2NL
$46 per table/hour
23 BB won per table hour

Since I started the “Running Back Plan,” my results have been like magic. I started this plan on June 20th, and I took a week vacation in there. I’ve played on 10 different days. On these 10 days, I’ve increased 31 “levels,” with each level being a win of 2% of my total on-line bankroll, rounded to the nearest $10.

At the start, 2% was $40. At the current level I’m working on (level 31), 2% is $70. My total win in these 10 days has been $1460. Most importantly, I’ve had 19 winning sessions out of 21 sessions. The way I’ve been recording things, a session is any time I have at least one cash table open. I’ve recorded more than one session on a single day by playing at more than one time in a day (only on the weekend), or playing one or more cash tables, then playing a SNG or tournament, and then opening up one or more cash tables again.

My complete focus has been simply winning a modest amount to book a win and reach the next level. With the constant focus of reaching the next level, I’ve been more focused than ever before at cash games. Traditionally, playing SNGs or a tournament provides focus – win the table or the tournament – while playing cash games just seems like a never-ending grind.

But, with the Running Back approach, I have a constant goal in cash games. I’m conscious of reaching the next level. These levels are simply a different method of characterizing progressive wins, but the levels provide a focus and a goal that really works for me. I enjoy the focus of winning enough in each session to reach the next “level,” then playing around to UTG and logging out to book a winning session and reach the next level. Then opening 1 or 2 tables and winning the next $60 to reach the next “level,” repeat, repeat.
I haven’t played perfect poker, and I haven’t been running especially good. Overall, I’m making more well-reasoned decisions, and thinking through each decision, because I’m conscious of the fact that each decision affects whether I reach the next level. Its really working.

Big Mother Bad Beat

Everyone bitches about bad beats. Statistically speaking, what is the worst possible bad beat?

I am proud to say that I have lived through what I believe to be the worst possible bad beat in hold ‘em. In a way, I’m kind of proud that this happened -- its like climbing to the summit of a 14,000-foot mountain. I have reached the pinnacle of bad beats, I have survived, and every other beat I will suffer in my poker career is just a minor irritant that dreams to be this truly horrendous beat, which I shall henceforth call the “Big Mother Bad Beat,” or just the Big Mother.

So, what is this Big Mother that I’m talking about? Let me describe it through this two-part analysis:

First, to set up the Big Mother, you need to flop a monster. Everyone likes to throw out the word “monster.”

“I flopped a monster!”

Oh yeah? What was it? A set? Maybe the nut flush? You call that a monster? I scoff at your puny monster.

The set up for the Big Mother is flopping a truly savage, evil, flesh-eating demon from Hell. A monster that children fear from under their bed, that they believe really exists. The Balrog from the Mines of Moria is close. Only a monster of enormous proportions qualifies for the Big Mother Bad Beat. I shall call this monster the “Sexy Beast,” and it consists of only two very select hands -- flopping quads or a straight flush.

Now, let’s take a moment to ponder the Sexy Beast. On those very rare occasions when we are blessed with a Sexy Beast, it is a bittersweet moment. You have an iron-clad lock on the hand, and your only concern is how to coax your opponent’s chips into the pot. Unfortunately, this is often impossible. When you flop a Sexy Beast, there is a very likely chance that your opponent has zilch, and he will dump the hand like yesterday’s girlfriend unless he feels the urge to run a bluff.

Second, now that we’ve flopped a Sexy Beast, how can this build into the Big Mother? Only one single scenario qualifies: your opponent is drawing dead except for two cards in the deck, which must appear in perfect succession on the turn and the river. Only if he catches perfect with those two cards, can he slay your Sexy Beast. Not a one-outer, which he has two chances to hit, but instead a two-outer that he has to hit in succession.

And, to make matters more difficult, the flop has to be an exact arrangement of cards that actually convinces him to put more chips into the pot on the flop rather than mucking. And, even more chips again on the turn, ideally his whole stack. This is nearly impossible, unless your opponent is just stupid.

What is the probability of the Big Mother occurring? I have no idea, but I know that its really improbable. Someone who’s better at statistics than me can calculate the odds of this happening.

By now you’re thinking, “Holy shit, man, that a lot of rambling for a single hand Can you get to the point?”

Okay, so now, I reveal to you the Big Mother Bad Beat.

Flopped quads beat by runner-runner quads. And I didn’t slow-play, either, so I should get bonus points.

After this hand, I wept tears of joy, for I had survived the Big Mother. And, fortunately, my opponent was on a shortish stack, so it all worked out nicely because I didn’t lose too much.

Twice I have suffered a one-out beat on the river for really big pots, but neither of those hands is as improbable as your opponent hitting two perfect cards on the turn and river.

The Running-Back Attack

I am implementing a new bankroll growth plan. I thought of a football analogy. Often in poker, no-limit cash game play resembles an aggressive passing attack in football. Players often take higher-risk shots at big money, like a long bomb that has a lower chance of completion but a higher reward in terms of yardage. Most poker players, by their nature, are always striving for the quick, big score. It’s the American way, right?

On the other hand, there is the running attack in football. If you have a rock-solid running back that can pound out an average of 3.5 yards per carry, you can slowly march down the field, wear down the opponent, and punch it in for the score.

It has occurred to me that the best way to build a bankroll in cash games is through a series of slow, steady, lower-risk winning sessions, like a steady ground game in football, rather than shoot-the-moon attempts to double up each session like a long passing attack. The passing attack is more exciting, but a solid running game can be just as effective with lower risk.

I think my play is more suited to a running game. A slow, steady march, built on tight hand selection and aggressive play when I am ahead. I am still very willing to use the passing attack and get all my chips in the pot when I am ahead, if the situation calls for it, but that puts me at higher risk if my opponent outdraws me. I’m otherwise content with solid running game in the form of winning a succession of smaller pots at lower risk.

So, how can I put this “running game” strategy into play? Here’s how: win exactly 1% of my total overall bankroll in each session. One “level” in the progression is however long it takes to win 1% of my bankroll. On-line, this means knowing the next 1% benchmark when I sit down, and leaving the table when I hit that benchmark (actually, play the current orbit until just before the BB hits again), thereby locking in the 1% profit. If I sit at a table with a buy-in that is roughly 5% of my total bankroll, I’ll need to win roughly 1/5 of my starting stack to hit the 1% goal for the session. Not so hard to achieve if I’m playing a solid game. Leaving the table after I hit the next benchmark level locks in the profit and moves me up the ladder. Then I buy in to another table where the players do not have a read on my playing style, and repeat.

I’ve run a spreadsheet that shows the progression of bankroll growth by simply winning 1% each time. Although 1% at $40 and $50 chunks does not seem like much, its amazing how fast the bankroll grows with this progression. If you start with a $1,800 bankroll, for example, after 35 levels you will have doubled to over $3,600. After 50 levels, you will have over $4,800. After 100 sessions, you will have over $13,000.

The approach is that you are playing a lower risk strategy because you take the profit off the table after hitting the benchmark. This is ideally suited for on-line play, because jumping around on the tables is so easy. There’s an argument to be made that leaving after a modest win prevents you from making a big hit and doubling or tripling up. Its always possible to hit a big hand at any time and jump up several levels in the progression. If I’m sitting at a very good table with obvious fish or LAGs just waiting to be picked off, I will keep playing after I hit the next 1% benchmark to take advantage of the situation.

Although this strategy might seem ideally suited for limit games, I think its actually better suited for NL play because there is lower variance in NL. You can control the pot size, price out drawing hands, etc., and I’m much better at NL than limit. But it can work either way.

I’ve already put this strategy into play for 10 days. I’m through 19 levels and up over $800, with 11 winning sessions and 3 losing sessions (some of the “sessions” have been jumps in multiple levels). I’m playing roughly the same game, but I’m playing tighter, more aggressive, and I’m making better laydowns. Sessions of $40 and $50 wins add up nicely – no single session is a huge win (unless I hit a couple successive big hands), but I’m posting a lot more winning sessions.

Unless I’m hitting cold cards or tired and playing poorly, I can complete several levels in the span of a few hours of play (open 2 tables, complete a level, close that table and open another, repeat, repeat). The structure that I’m adding to my game may just be an illusion, but it gives me more focus each time I play, because there is a very specific goal for each session -- hit the next level. Each time I leave a table, I’ve progressed a level, which feels like a small, but important, accomplishment. For me, achieving a series of mini-goals and measuring the progress step-by-step is better than just playing, and its more fun. It’s the cure for those players that lament “Cash games are boring because I’m just playing hand after hand.” The progression in levels breaks up any monotony.

I’m a goal-oriented person, and this may just be what I need to make more steady progress and build up a bankroll to pay for some more trips and buy into some bigger live games and tournaments.

Holding Steady

We are gearing up for a family vacation. With that plus work, plus birthday celebrations, plus family in town, I haven’t been able to focus much on my game. When I have found time to play, I’ve been tired and fairly unfocused.

Last night I was able to play for a while. It was a session of really cold cards, coupled with my inability to focus very well on my opponents play. So, I found myself just trying to avoid trouble, steal a pot here and there, and float along to keep even. Yuck. Then, on a couple of hands I got nut flush draws on the flop and found myself pushing and gambling.

It’s the type of play that I hope to see my opponents make, so I know that I was making bad plays. Or at least sub-optimal plays, since at least one of my opponents should have folded rather than calling with a relatively weak hand. As I was doing it, I was conscious of the fact that I was making gambling plays, but I couldn’t stop myself. I didn’t hit, so I was suddenly down two buy-ins. I hate playing for an extended period of time, floating along, and then dropping like a stone at the end.

So, I opened one more table to regain some losses, and I redoubled my effort to focus. Usually, a session like this ends with losses compounded on losses. Fortunately, in one big pot, I hit a lucky set on the river with jacks to come from behind and stack one opponent. It made up for a good chunk of the losses for the evening, and this makes up for some of the beats I’ve been through in the past. I’ll just count it as luck evening out. But, when you win though a bad beat, it’s a reminder that you’re making bad decisions and getting your money with the worst of it.

So, with the WSOP approaching, I’m a bit down about where things stand for me in poker, at this point. After my WSOP experience last year, my goal was to improve my game and return to the WSOP again this year. I had planned to play in the same $2000NL event as last year, or possibly a bigger game. I thought that there might be an outside chance that I could build up my bankroll enough to play in the Main Event this year, but I simply haven’t focused enough to work up to that level. I’ve also gone through a super-LAG learning period that took a bite out of my bankroll this winter. At least I’ve tried out several different styles and I have a better sense of what kind of play works the best for me.

But, our weekends are filled with activities through July and August. Its very unlikely that I will be able to make it to Vegas in July during the WSOP. And, even if I were able to make it there, it would be a significant bite in my bankroll to play in a WSOP event. I could swing it, but I would have to devote about 1/5 or 1/4 of my bankroll to one tournament.

I think I would be just as satisfied with playing a few $500 or $1000 events in Vegas, rather than one bigger WSOP event. A couple of noon Wynn tournaments, a Bellagio evening tournament, and a Caesars evening tournament, combined with cash game play would suit me fine. The poker energy in Vegas during the WSOP is electric, no matter where you play.

Do you trust your read?

Live game Friday night, NL with $2/5 blinds. I’m in seat 1, on the button with QJo. Seat 7 is a 25-year old chatty player. Tight and seemed decent. He raised to $20. Two callers, I call, and button calls.

Flop is J-7-3, rainbow. He checks, others check to me, and I bet $60. BB folds, Seat 7 calls fairly quickly, and the others fold. Now we’re heads up.

My read is that he has AJ, AQ or AK, maybe AT. Why? It was mostly instinct – I just sort of felt it. Thinking back to the hand, I guess the reason was his check on the flop, and quick call thinking that I was making a play on the button since everyone checked, hoping to take the pot from me later. I was leaning against AJ, because he likely would have bet that flop in a multi-way pot with a junky flop.

Turn was a [J-7-3]-4. He checked, and I checked behind. This was my first mistake.

River is [J-7-3-4]-K. He bets $150 into a ~$220 pot. I sat back and studied him for a good long while. This was the first time in a long time (since I’ve been playing mostly on-line), that I’ve “stared someone down.” I just relaxed and watched, trying to get a read.

At this point, I was 50/50 on whether he had AQ or AK. This would require a call, since I was getting more than 2 to 1 from the pot of $370. Based on his past play, it could be either AQ or AK, and if he had AQ I thought that he was betting with the thought that he would push me off a jack, or I simply had a draw on the flop with something like T9. His bet was larger that what I would think he would value-bet on the river if he had AK.

I loaded up $150 for the call, set it in front of me, and watched some more for a reaction. He seemed really nervous, and now he was bouncing in his seat and fidgeting with chips. He normally shuffled and fiddled, but this was clearly nervous fiddling. I read this as weakness, and that he didn’t want a call. So I was leaning toward call, maybe 55/45, still very close. Now the turning point for my decision became calling just to see if my read was correct.

So I called. He had AK.

Reflecting on the hand and his reaction, I think he just got really nervous being watched so intently for so long. I didn’t think of that at the time.

While he was stacking his chips, he looked at me and said "Sorry." He meant it -- he was a nice guy. I think there was a bit of guilt in hitting on the river, and that contributed to the nervousness.

I should have raised the river, or just pushed -- I'm almost positive he would have folded, since we both had over $1000 behind. Damn.

Super Secret Blog

So far, I'm the only one reading this blog. I know this because I haven't told anyone about it yet.

Is that strange? Sort of. I wonder who will read this, or if I will even tell anyone about it. I've presumed that this could be found through some type of search, but I don't really know.

Isn't the point of writing a blog to have the masses read and participate? I guess so, but that doesn't seem to the reason that I am writing this.

Maybe some day I'll win the WSOP main event, and then this will be the cool thing to read.

Yeah, right.

Volatility and the Challenge

I played live poker last night, which I don’t get to do nearly often enough. I played just OK. I played well on about 90% of the hands that I played (didn’t fold PF). Playing 10% of your hands badly can be costly errors in NLHE. I misplayed 3 critical hands for a loss of about $225, and I got very unlucky on one hand for about $300, which accounts for the total loss of $525 on the night. The remainder of my hands were a mix of good plays and OK plays, for break even poker.

Tonight, after I had a very long 45-minute reading session with the kids (a whole Berenstein Bears chapter book in one sitting!), I decided to sit for some 6-handed $3/6 NL. After about 10 minutes, I drop a buy-in when I flop a set, we get all the chips in the middle and opponent hits a gutshot straight draw on the river. (All-in on a gut-shot draw – what the hell are these people thinking?!)

So I sit at another table, and after about 5 minutes I’ve cleaned two players out and I’m sitting on about $1400, just like that, more than making up for the initial buy-in that I dropped. Huge swings, and I was only looking to sit for a while and play some easy poker. You’ve got to bring it each and every time. No-limit can produce giant pots in a heartbeat, and when the cards hit you can’t hesitate to put your whole stack at risk. Do not play unless you’re willing to take these risks and can live with the consequences without tilting.

I closed the table where I was the big stack to lock in the profits and get away from two very tricky players, and as I type this I’m up about $130 on another table so I’m going to pack it in for the evening.

Last night, I sat next to a guy who was very chatty. We got to talking about poker in general. At one point, he said “I just love this game. The money is nice if you win, but that’s not why I play. I just enjoy playing. I love the challenge and strategy and competition.”

From time to time, I’ve wondered why I like playing so much. This pretty much sums it up.

Super Screaming Monkey Tilt

I won’t say that I’m un-tiltable, but its close. The cards are random, bad beats happen, I sometimes make bad decisions, I sometimes get outplayed, and in the end I seem come out ahead. Poker is just a game, and I’m generally winning. Keep it fun.

Well, I’ve been seriously tested in the last week.

In my last several sessions, I’ve suffered the most horrendous stretch of bad beats. I won’t whine much, so indulge me. Aces cracked by kings, jacks, tens, and jacks again, all for large pots. Sets outdrawn by improbable runner-runner flushes. Two- and five-outers hitting on the river for the suckout. Each of these qualified as true bad beats, because my betting on prior streets gave my opponents improper odds to call. So, I was making the correct moves, and getting outdrawn. Repeatedly.

I wasn’t exactly tilting, but its enough to get any player peeved. When this happens, no matter how strong your resolve, you start expecting it. I found myself actually squinting and wincing in anticipatory pain when I’m heads up all-in, and the cards are being dealt out. I’m ahead with an overpair, opponent has one lower pair, and I’m just expecting him to hit a set or two pair. Then, BANG, it happens, and I can stop wincing because the pain has actually arrived.

Reload.

Last night, it all built to a fabulous crescendo. The family was gone for the evening, so I thought I’d settle in for a very rare early on-line session after work. Normally, I only play after the kids are in bed.

Earlier in the day, the phone company dug a trench in my front yard to replace important underground stuff. These are the twenty-something people who barely graduated from high school -- if they were that successful. One kid was wearing overalls and a farmer-style cap from which protruded a massive pile of hair. He looked like a country-bumpkin cartoon character, and he must have been damn hot from the hair alone.

Several days earlier, various colored dashed lines and flags appeared in my yard, marking underground cables, tubes, wires and dungeon corridors. Apparently operating a mini-bobcat with a backhoe is very tricky business. Despite glowing-bright orange, yellow, and red lines on the ground, and flags in case you can’t see the lines, they tore the cable line from the green box sitting on the corner of my lot. TV and internet connection was down for about 30 minutes when I got home, threatening to ruin an otherwise peaceful and entertaining evening.

I wandered outside to watch one guy dig, and another guy watching the guy dig. I had the urge to ask whether they try to avoid the colored marks, or instead they try to hit some of them on purpose, just to piss of the neighborhood. They were able to call upon all of their finely tuned skills and plug the wire back into the box before they left for the evening. Connection restored, evening saved.

I was playing in a Party MTT, a Party cash game, and a Stars SNG at the same time. Smooth sailing. Winning on the cash table, and for once I had no feeling of impending suckout doom. Five players left in the SNG, and I was above average and approaching the money in the MTT.

Suddenly the TV starts sputtering. I look outside, and there’s a guy from the cable company in the trench with a shovel, nosing around. I start to sporadically lose internet connection. No! Not now! I have connection -- don’t fuck with it! Its such a rare occasion that I get to play poker before 10pm, when I’m droopy-eye tired -- please don’t mess this up.

At that precise moment, there was an unbelievable harmonic convergence of good hands on all three tables. In the SNG, I had KK on the button, and I raised. SB, a smaller stack, pushed, and it was BB’s turn to act. In the MTT, the antes had just kicked in, there was a raise in EP, I had KK in the cutoff, and it was folding around to me. On the cash table, I had AKs on the button.

Then, before I could act on any of these hands, the dude in the trench cut off the connection.

I don’t normally react in situations like this, or curse at the top of my lungs. This was different. I was so pissed that I couldn’t see straight. I stomped outside and -- politely, I believe -- asked when connection would be restored.

“The phone guys damaged box.” Yeah, I knew that. “We’ll have ‘er up in about twenty minutes.”

When connection was restored, I was well below average on the MTT. Damn antes. In the SNG, my KK was folded and had lost a bunch to rapidly repeating blinds.. I still haven’t recovered from my fury, and I proceed to donk off my stack in the MTT, and bust out on the bubble in the SNG.

I closed the cash table and bailed out. Operation Peaceful Poker night was in ruins. There was no way that I would be able to play good poker any longer. So, I was way down for the week, and I was as pissed about poker as I can ever get. And, it wasn’t even the poker that got me in such a bad way. Cripes.

I went for a 2-mile jog, in the dark, to clear my head. While jogging, I made the decision that I’m tired of dinking and doinking around with low-stakes on-line poker when I play for higher stakes in live play. My on-line game was starting to feel like a drag at the lower stakes. Playing for relatively small stakes, and getting constantly punched by bad beats, was starting to just suck, and I felt like I was just wasting my time.

So, I made the decision to just put the whole on-line bankroll into action after the jog and either build up a decent bankroll quickly, back to its former status, or flame out in a blaze of glory. This goes against everything that I’ve learned and everything that I’ve taught myself in the last two years. I’ve always played well within my bankroll. I’ve segregated my live bankroll from my cash bankroll. So, while putting my entire on-line bankroll on the line is really only the equivalent of about two live buy-ins for me, its still risking the whole on-line amount. I take personal pride that I’m still building the original $200 deposit from two years ago, but things were sputtering back to start.

After I returned and showered, I sat down and scanned my options. I found a decent $3/6 6-seat NL table that looked about right. This was actually lower than I planned to play, but I gave it a shot.

To my surprise, I played very solid, and won over $400. It felt good. The tilt was completely gone. I was making good decisions, and avoiding trouble. The players in this game were clearly better, and more cautious, than the players in the $1/2 games. It was a bit tighter play, and I was able to get a solid read on each of my opponents and their styles. It may have been because my mind was clear, or because I was proceeding cautiously. I was totally focused on one table.

Whatever the reasons, it was a good end to what could have been an otherwise horrible poker night. I’m ready to continue at these stakes with the plan of building up a real on-line bankroll, so I can play at stakes that feels like it matters. I make better decisions and pay more attention at the higher stakes.

This could be a recipe for disaster, or it could be what my game needs right now. Everyone warns against jumping to higher stakes to make up for bad runs, including me. We’ll see what happens.

Epilogue: I’ve won over $1000 at the $3/6, 6-max tables. I think I’m onto something.

Defending vs. KillPhil

I play in a regular Thursday night private tournament on PokerStars, with players from www.chiptalk.net. I am also reading the Kill Phil book, primarily to defend against the KillPhil strategy. I was put to the test last night.

Early in the game, I had AA cracked by QQ, and my stack was reduced to about 800. Weak-tight semi-regular player is sitting to my left. With blinds at 25/50, I am in the SB with 560 and get KQs. Solid player in MP opens with a raise to 200. Folded around to me in SB and I push. Weak-tight calls 510 more with a stack of 1522. Original raiser thinks for a long time and just calls. They check it down, and I hit trip queens and triple up to 1680. From the hand history, solid player had JJ, which is about what I put him on (99-JJ, maybe AQ), and Weak-tight player had 97s. Yikes – not Weak-tight, he’s just a Maniac tonight.

On the very next hand, LAG player in late position calls 50 with A4o. Maniac pushes in the BB with T8s, and hits trip tens for the double-up. I comment that someone has been reading the Kill Phil book, and Maniac feigns ignorance, but also makes a comment that leads me to believe he knows the strategy (which he is playing, but badly by calling too much). He also comments that he doesn’t care about the outcome of the game. (He went on to take 3rd, so I don’t buy that he doesn’t care.) He also comments that he would have called with 97s against JJ in the prior hand, which I believe.

On the next hand its folded to me in the CO. I raise to 155 with junk, and Weak-loose pushes on the Button. Blinds fold and I have to fold, also.

This, of course, is all set-up for the confrontation. On the very next hand, with blinds still at 25-50 and a stack of 1525, I get 66. I raise to 300. Maniac again pushes and has me covered. Its folded back around to me. 1370 to win a pot of 1600, giving me about 1.1 to 1 on the call.

Based on his history in this game, do I call? He’s called my short-stack all in with 97, and he’s pushed against a raise with T8. He’s showing that he is probably pushing with just about anything, so his range of possible hands is huge.

I called. He had QQ and I was bounced. Based on some PokerStove calculations, I was probably about 52/48 favorite based on his range of hands. Because these hands happened in quick succession, it was easier to make this call – he was showing all the signs of a raging maniac. If I has a slightly better hand, like 88, it would be a 58/42 advantage. Close decision.

It all worked out for the best, because I was able to focus on a few Party $1/2 NL tables and booked a $130 night – enough to cover the full quarter of entry fees in the private tournament.

A good fold is hard to beat

PartyPoker $1/2 NL: +$111

More and more, I find myself judging the quality my play both by how much I’m winning, and how I make good laydowns. I hope that’s a good sign, but it feels odd to be happy about giving up a strong hand.

Yesterday I had this hand, which really pissed me off –

I’m BB with Jh6h, 5 limpers around to me, I check. Flop is 8h-9s-3h. I open for half the pot, MP and button call. Turn is [8h-9s-3h]-4h. I bet half the pot with my flush. MP mini-raises, and button calls. There’s three flushes out there that beat mine. One of these dudes must have at least the Kx flush, if not the Ax flush. I’m guessing that button has the best hand based on his flat calls. Even though I’m getting 7 to 1 on my money, I muck. MP and button play to showdown – button has a set, and MP reveals 2-pair.

Fuck. What made it extra aggravating is that I didn’t fold to a big bet, I folded to with fabulous pot odds.

So then there’s this hand today –

Seat 8: SpeakEasy_ ( $337.92 )
Seat 5: R-- ( $155.30 )
Seat 6: m-- ( $47.70 )
R-- posts small blind [$1].
m-- posts big blind [$2].

Dealt to SpeakEasy_ [ Ac Ts ]
SpeakEasy_ raises [$6].
R-- calls [$5].
m-- calls [$4].

** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 4s, Ks ]
R-- checks.
m-- checks.
SpeakEasy_ checks.

** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
R-- bets [$27.72].
m-- is all-In [$41.70]
SpeakEasy_ folds.
R-- calls [$13.98].

** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
R-- shows [ Qc, Qh ] a full house, Queens full of kings.
m-- doesn't show [ 2s, 6s ] a flush, king high.
R-- wins $98.40 from the main pot with a full house, Queens full of kings.

My read was that my straight was beat. I felt the flush, and the river boat was irrelevant to my decision. There was a time when I would never consider folding a straight.

Decent Tuesday

After a few sessions of bad beats, tight play, and minimizing my losses, I've finally had a decent night.

PartyPoker $1/2 NL: +$222
3 tables, 1 hour = 3 table-hours

One table started short-handed, and there were 3 players with "tex" in their names. Lots of raising, bluffing, macho stuff. Time to sit back, let the bullies have their play, wait for a big hand. Got the stack in with AA vs. QQ against one of the Tex players, and the aces held up. Patience pays off again.

I asked him if queens look like aces in Texas. He left the table.

Poker Career So Far

When I graduated from law school in 1994, a started playing poker with a group of friends. We would play something like 8 to 10 times per year, rotating from house to house. We still have this home game going today, but we only play about 4 times per year, since nearly everyone in the group has 2.3 kids and careers. Most of us are attorneys. So I’ve been playing poker for about 12 years, but I freely admit that during the first 8 years or so I didn’t really know what I was doing.

During one of our home sessions in 2002, one of the guys proposes that we play “tournament style,” like they do for the World Series of Poker. We gave it a shot, but the blind structure was really messed up and it made for an awkward evening -- three guys sitting around for about 2 hours watching the rest of us play. That was my introduction to tournament poker.

Then the WPT aired. I caught the third show by accident. I was hooked, and became a regular viewer. I had played poker once in a casino prior to 2002, back in maybe 1998. I think it was Omaha (high). After the WPT ramped up and poker started taking off nation-wide, I was in the thick of it.

I started venturing to the local riverboat casino poker room about once every 4 to 6 weeks. At the time, my daughter was 3 and my son was just born, so a night away was a very rare event.

As the 2003 WSOP approached, I learned about on-line poker, and that players could win a seat in the Main Event through satellites. I made my first $200 deposit, strictly with the goal of winning a seat in the Main Event through a satellite. I lost that $200 in the wacky crazy rebuy sats. I made another $200 deposit and gave it another shot. No luck.

My wife and I scheduled a trip to Vegas for July 2003. I bought my first poker book -- Sklansky’s Hold ‘Em for Advanced Players. I read it and re-read it in preparation for my trip. Looking back, I probably understood about 30% of what I was reading, because you really need a lot of time at the tables to understand that book.

I discovered the 2+2 site. After reading many posts about bankroll management and other basic concepts, I decided to get organized about my new hobby. I made another $200 on-line deposit right before the July 2003 Vegas trip, and devoted $1000 of my own money as a live game bankroll. My general goal was to see how far I could take my $1000 live roll and my $200 on-line roll.

The Vegas trip was a success. Tight-aggressive play at the $5/10 and $15/30 tables. I was playing somewhat above my bankroll, but I played very tight and generally avoided trouble. At this point, I was not following the world poker seen, but I heard the results of the WSOP and the Moneymaker win on the day it happened.

I started playing with more focus on-line. I played strictly at night, after the kids went to bed. I would never allow poker to become a distraction from my family. I slowly built-up my bankroll. We went to Vegas again in 2004, and I played some poker, but not as much as I would have liked since it was a trip with my wife and I didn’t want to abandon her for significant periods of time.

I started keeping records on my live play. I continued to play at the local poker rooms about every 4 or 5 weeks, continuing to build the bankroll. In January 2005, I set the goal of winning enough to pay for a July 2005 Vegas trip, and entering one of the lower buy-in WSOP events.

In June 2005, I went to Vegas a few days before my wife flew out. I played in the $2000 NLHE WSOP event. I made it to about 235th place out of over 2000 players, and I got knocked out by Spider-Man. I also played in a Bellagio $500 tournament, and win $4845, my biggest cash to date. I also played some $5/10 NLHE cash games, and won a good amount.

At this point, my combined on-line and live bankroll together was over $10,000. I had increased my starting bankroll ten-fold in about 2 years.

I had been keeping records in an Excel spreadsheet, but our computer hard drive crashed in the fall of 2005, and I lost all of the data. Stupidly, I did not have an electronic back-up or even a paper copy. I tallied the accounts up, and started over with my records.

My total bankroll reached a peak of over $11,000 in August 2005. Then I withdraw money to pay for the July Vegas trip (I balked, but my wife held me to my commitment) and I also purchased a fantastic 1000 set of Paulson Pharaoh chips. This drained a total of about $2,800 from the bankroll. In August 2005 I withdrew about $300 for a flat-panel computer monitor. After these withdrawals, my total bankroll was around $8,500.

In August 2005, the “Family Poker Debacle” occurred. I have a separate post about this occurrence. Though an unfortunate series of events, my niece unintentionally evacuated my PokerStars account to the tune of over $1646.

Christmas Day 2005 was perfect. I had an absolutely wonderful day with my wife and kids from morning ‘till the kids bedtime, playing games and having a great time. That evening, I simultaneously cashed in a PokerStars and a FullTilt tournament for a combined $1900 win. Its hard enough to cash in any tournament, and cashing in both at almost the exact same was a big surprise. I think it had a lot to do with the fact that I was very relaxed and was under no work-related stress during the holiday break.

So, by the end of 2005, I had fully recovered from the Family Poker Debacle, and the total bankroll was at about $7,500. In January 2006, I decided to take a dip into higher on-line stakes. After some bad beats, compounded by some bad plays, I got smacked back down to the lower limits.

I also started taking some hits in the live games. As I got more advanced with my play, I moved into an almost hyper- LAG stage of my poker development. This resulted in bigger swings, with some nights where I’d win $2000, followed by a few $800 losing sessions. Looking back a few months, I think I was just testing out some new techniques.

I was very aware that I was playing more loose and aggressive, but it was like a context with myself to test my live read on my opponents. I wasn’t really playing against my opponents, it was more like I was testing my own read of my opponents. In a hand, if my read was that my opponent had a mediocre hand, I would push the action in an effort to test my read and make him fold.

Unfortunately, as I learned, this style doesn’t work against weaker players. They aren’t skilled enough to see that you are sending the signal “I have a set,” and so they call with middle pair. My read was correct -- yea me -- but I still lose the pot.

So, backing off from the tricky stuff, I’ve decided to regroup on my game and get a plan of attack in May 2006. I’m back on the winning track, and I’m still playing on that original $1000 live and $200 online starting bankroll from 2003.

This blog will be an effort to set some goals and track my play.

June goal:
Build on-line bankroll to $3500

Longer term goals
Play in the Bellagio tournaments in October, if I can arrange it. Can’t make the WSOP this year (unless I win a seat on-line…)

The June $100 Challenge

I started a challenge on ChipTalk in May. Isolate $100 in an on-line account, see how far you can take it during the month of May. I ran it up to $704 in 65.5 table-hours (usually playing 2 or more at a time).

By popular demand, we are repeating the challenge in June. My ridiculously over-aggressive plan for the month:

Bankroll - - - Stakes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Move up
$100 - - - - - 2 $.25/.5 tables - - - - - - - - - - - - -$300
$300 - - - - - 1 $.25/.5 table, 1 $.5/1 table - - - $400
$400 - - - - - 2 $.5/1 tables - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -$600
$600 - - - - - 2 $1/2 tables - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - $1000
$1000 - - - - 1 $1/2 table, 1 $2/4 table - - - - - - -$1400
$1400 - - - - 2 $2/4 tables

As in May, I will start very tight, avoid going broke, wait for the double-up hands, and then loosen up to my normal game as I move up in stakes.

2005 WSOP Vegas Trip Report

[Another old post to jump-start this blog.]

Thursday, June 9th

Arrived in Vegas around 11:30am, suitcase delayed by one flight. Therefore, I missed the 2pm Bellagio tournament. Went to the Rio at about 4pm, straight to the Pavilion and the WSOP.

Wow! That’s a hell of a lot of poker tables. The buzz in the room is incredible. Tournaments, cash games, satellites, the works. Calls for cash games in one area, satellite seating in another. At one table is Greg Raymer, Cindy Violette, John D’Agostino, Ted Forrest and some others playing a 7-card stud cash game. A small crowd watches, probably oogling the stacks of black and other colorful chips on the table as much as the play and the players.

I came armed and ready for the $2000 NLHE tournament on Friday, so I thought I’d ease into things with a satellite. $225 satellite for tournament chips, good for any WSOP tournament. 1000 starting chips, 10 players, blinds escalate every 15 or 20 minutes (I forget). Not much room to maneuver. I build the stack slowly, and we’re down to three with the blinds at 600-1200. With the three of us about equal stacks, we are each completely committed all-in if we play a hand. It becomes a complete luck-fest. I lose with A3o to Q7o. At least I got my money in with the best starting hand. High on the luck scale, low on the skill scale, I decide to move on to the cash games.

I sit at the $500 to $1500 NLHE game, $5-10 blinds. Mostly experienced players in the cash games, but also a few lose, fairly wild players at my table. One kid that was probably 21 years and a day sits down and starts raising wildly. After being down a bit, one notable hand comes up where I flop top two pair in the BB (queens and eights), and he just can’t lay it down. The whole stack goes in and now I’m up about $600 for the night, accounting for the satellite. Thanks. I’m tired; after a long days of traveling and playing.

I sign up for WSOP Event #9, and its time for bed. Phil Hellmuth signs up soon after me, and even in line he still wears the sunglasses.

Friday, WSOP Event #9

Friday is the $2000 NLHE event, with about 1400 entrants. I’m in seat 6, and the only notable player at my table is Buddy Williams in seat 8. Seat 5 is empty for about the first 10 minutes, which is then occupied by a noted pro who shall remain nameless for the purpose of my story.

He’s been to the final table at the WSOP before, and he looks every bit the part of the melancholy poker hippy, straight out of the ‘60s. Headband, ratty sweatshirt, shorts, tube socks pulled up to the knees with gym shoes. Worst of all, he smells like ass. Not a constant, overbearing ass smell, but unavoidable. Occasionally, I have to turn my head away to avoid a strong breeze of ass smell. I wonder if its really him, or just the “lucky poker clothes” that haven’t been washed for eighteen years.

After about his third hand after sitting down, Poker Hippy flops a set of tens in a raised pot on a KT8 board against what could only be AK (this other player mucked after losing). Poker Hippy doubles up, just like that. AK-guy curses, and the dealer doesn’t call the floor and assess the ten minute cursing penalty only because the poor bastard has $50 left. Now ass-smelling Poker Hippy is the instant big stack to my right and he’s not going anywhere. Fabulous.

The table is playing very tight. I get complete junk except for one notable hand of the first level. Poker Hippy raises UTG+1, and I peek down at AA. I raise, thinking we’ll move that big stack one to the left. Alas, all fold, Poker Hippy notices me for the first time, ponders for about 2 seconds, and mucks. Am I playing that tight? I win a $150 pot. Fabulous.

At the start of level 2, Poker Hippy pulls out an orange, and proceeds to peel it with his fist, sans tools, like a chimpanzee would peel a banana. He bites into it like an apple, and juice is running down his hand and dripping on his clothes. This is good, because it may counteract the ass smell.

I get junk, junk, and more junk for the remainder of level 2. I make a play here and there with junk, and by the first break build up to $2900. Nothing spectacular, but respectable for my first big tournament.

As the 15 minute break starts, nearly 1400 guys all make a rush for the 12 urinals and 6 toilet stalls in the single bathroom near the poker room. What the hell are the organizers thinking?! I set off with maybe 300 adventurous souls in search of the main casino bathrooms, which is about a 6-7 minute walk, one way.

On this journey, I find myself walking next to Tobey Maguire. I have the urge to tell him that I have been collecting comic books since I was 15, that I have thousands of Spider-Man comics, and that my all-time favorite comic book cover is Amazing Spider-Man #252, where the black costume first appears. This is the comic book, in fact, that really got me starting collecting comics. With deference to your traditional blue and red costume, Mr. Maguire, I really like the black costume better. I realize that I’m in a small minority, but I just like the black costume. Instead, I settle for something more mundane.

“How many hands you think we’ll miss?”

“Hopefully, none. I’m just heading to Starbucks, not the can,” Spiderman replies.

“Good luck.”

“You too.”

After all these years of collecting and reading Spiderman comics, Spiderman has just wished me good luck in poker. Surreal.

As round 3 starts, Poker Hippy now has a large cup of soup. The soup smells great, so now we have orange and soup odors to counteract the smell of ass. I want to ask him to spill some soup on his shorts, just for good measure. I actually consider quickly adjusting my chair in a way that would ensure some soup spills on his clothes. Just as he is finishing his soup, however, our table breaks.

I am moved to seat #4 at a table right next to the area where ESPN is filming the final table of the $1000 NLHE rebuy tournament. This area is abuzz with excitement. The main ESPN TV screen is immediately adjacent to my table, and people are crowded by the ropes to watch the action. Miami John Cernuto is in seat #1 at my table, and both he and seat #3 have what may be the biggest stacks in the tournament at this point. I’m at about $3000, and these two may have more than $10,000.

Seat #5, to my immediately left, busts out soon after I arrive. Within 3 minutes, Spiderman appears and plops his chips at the empty seat next to me. Seat #3 nudges me, whispering: “You know who that is, right?”

“Yeah, we’ve met.” My brush with greatness continues.

For the next hour and a half, I get absolute crap for cards. I’ve played long enough to know when the cards are running good, when they’re running average, and when they’re running bad. This was really bad. This table is more aggressive than my first, and Miami John is raising liberally, and calling raises just as liberally.

Its clearly a raise or fold table. Limping is openly mocked and snapped off with aggressive raises. I put in a few opening raises, just to stay in the game, with premium hands like J9s and Q8o, but with a few callers and nothing on the flop each time, I just can’t afford to put more chips in harms way.

I’m playing weak tight, and I hate it, but I simply have no cards or openings to make a play. I haven’t shown a hand at this table because I haven’t played to a showdown. I have that bad feeling set in as my stack dwindles and others grow.

At the second 15 minutes break, after level 4, I have $2850. Yuck. I resolve to make it through the next two levels and to the dinner break.

More crap. The antes are now grinding my stack into dust. I raise with 44 in MP1, the best hand I’ve seen since the AA. The flop misses, I bet, get re-raised, and have to fold.

Near the start of level 6, with 150/300 blinds and 25 ante, I am down to about 1000 and go all-in UTG with K7o. Time to get lucky or say goodbye. Tobey calls, and the BB raises. Crap. Tobey calls the raise, and shows AQ. The BB shows AK. Tobey hits the queen and busts us both. I stand up and see that the big screen says 435 players remaining, so I guess I went out in 435th. Now I can tell everyone that I did decent for my first big tournament, and got busted by Spiderman.

Saturday, MGM Grand

Arrive at about 11am on Saturday, and sit down at the $200 NLHE game, waiting for the $500 NLHE game. In the 200 game, it’s a therapy session for a twenty-something kid to my right who’s been playing all night, and is now crying to the table about the girlfriend who just dumped him (the mother of his only child). He’s drinking Heineken and Scotch, raising if either of his two starting cards are an ace or face card. I’m generally a nice guy, but I’m just waiting for the right moment to help him slide his stack over to me. Does that make me a bad guy? Nah. No cards, and I move after 20 minutes to the bigger game.

Play at the $500 NL (2-5 blinds) game is fairly standard, not much bluffing, and I am down a few hundred in seat 1 playing uninspired poker with mediocre starting cards for a couple of hours. The action heats up when a small, quiet man arrives in seat 9 and starts raising and re-raising. He’s far too well dressed for the lunch hour at the MGM, and everyone senses that the action is going to pick up.

My runs starts with a hand while I’m in the BB. I’ve been adding to keep my stack at or near $500, just in case I actually catch some cards or see an opening to be the bully. I have named the player in Seat 7 ‘The Big Jell-O’ because he has the unfortunate tell of trembling when he has a big hand. He’s a big-boned, blubbery sort of guy who is apparently a regular, because the dealers all know him. On one prior hand, he started trembling as he raised PF and got a call from the BB. The flop was JT6, the BB led out, and as The Big Jell-O raised his trembling turned into a quivering, full-body jiggle. He might as well have shouted, “I have a Monster here!!” BB folded and he turned over pocket kings. What a horribly unfortunate tell for him.

Back to my hand in the BB. The Big Jell-O raised pre-flop to $25 and he’s shaking, so he’s got something. I peek down at AdAh. Sweet. How can we get all the money in the pot? I raise to $75. The Big Jell-O quickly raises to $150. I pause, think, think, sending out brain waves of “ace-king, ace-king.” I’m quietly praying he has KK and not AA. I finally raise to $300. He is now a shambling, jiggling mess as he somehow manages to shove his stack forward, bulldozer-style. Neatly stacked chips crash into a pile. I saw that he had me covered by about $30 or so, so we don’t have to re-assemble the wreckage and count it out until after the hand is over.

I call. He turns over kings, I turn over the goods, and he yelps something that’s not any language. My aces hold up.

This hand starts my card rush. My spoils are still in an unstacked pile as I get AsQs in the SB on the next hand. I raise after four limpers, and all call, including the BB. Flop comes two spades. I lead out with about a third of the pot, one raise, two callers, and I call. Fourth card is a spade, with no straight-flush draw. I check, and manage to milk some more out of one player, winning at the show-down.

I win three or four more hands in the next two orbits, then get to limp in with 6c4s in the BB with 4 other players. Flop comes 4h-4d-6h. I lead for $15, which shouldn’t raise any eyebrows. A young baby-face guy raises to $75. The wildish, well-dressed man calls. I just call.

The turn is Qh -- “Excellent!” (in the voice of Monty Burns) I bet $75, baby-face raises all-in for about $225 total, small quiet guy raises to $450! Most likely one has the flush, one has a four, and I can tell no one has pocket 44 or 66 by their betting. My only hesitation is that Well-Dressed Man limped with a high pocket pair, and might beat me with a lucky card on the river. I raise $300 more, and he goes away. When I turn up the sneaky full house, there’s groans all around the table, and I rake another healthy pot.

Things cool down for me after that, and I’m done when my wife and other family arrive for dinner around 4:30, up nearly $1000. MGM has a very nice room, and I will definitely play there again. The bar right next door plays thumping-loud music, which doesn’t bother me but seems to irritate some of the players.


Sunday, Bellagio

I arrive about 1:15pm for the 2pm $500 buy-in NLHE tournament. The Bellagio has upgraded and expended the poker room, and its very nice. There’s a main floor, four tables on an upper level high-stakes area enclosed by frosted glass, and the large ultra-plush single-table high-stakes room. They have pictures of high-rollers and WPT winners on the walls, which adds a very unique touch. This may very well be the center of the poker universe, now that the WSOP has all but abandoned the downtown Horseshoe.

My tournament starts in seat 5 at a 10-handed table with players ranging from seasoned to fairly inexperienced, and a couple of stodgy old regulars. The old guys let everyone know they play here a lot by calling out to the staff and talking loudly about how they faired yesterday. We start with $2000 and 25/25 blinds, going up every 40 minutes. Overall, everyone is friendly, and play is tight from the start. I ease into tight mode, either raising or folding pre-flop. I slowly build my stack with hands that end before the showdown.

During the second level, seat 9 busts out, and Michael “The Grinder, I’m a Machine” Mizrachi plops down in his place. Everyone instantly recognizes him. The guy in seat 3 has apparently met him before, and acts like he’s The Grinder’s life-long buddy. Its painful to watch a 50 year-old man kiss the ass of a 25 year-old uber-successful player.

Mizrachi is immediately the center of attention, raising PF and entering a lot of pots. He’s betting aggressively, and many yielding to his aggression. He plays with a lot of ego, and clearly likes to run the table. The way he counts chips and bets just screams confidence. Its an interesting contrast to everyone I’ve played with so far in Vegas, and he’s clearly the most bold player I’ve ever seen in person. On one particular hand, Mizrachi raises pre-flop, a stodgy old-guy in seat 1 calls, and Mizrachi leads the betting on every street with the old guy calling the flop and turn. On the river, Mizrachi bets enough to put the old guy all-in, and he folds. Mizrachi flips T7o into the middle, which has connected with absolutely nothing on the board. Someone comments about “firing all three barrels,” and its even more clear that Mizrachi is playing at a level a few notches above this table. I was convinced he had the goods.

After the first 15 minute break, during level 4, Mizrachi pulls a trick on a newbie to my left. Newbie goes all-in on a smallish stack, and everyone folds around to Mizrachi in the BB. Mizrachi collects a stack of chips in his left hand, and in one single motion stomps the chips in the pot with his left hand, yelling “Call!” while flipping his cards with his right hand under the chips (as they are moving forward) and into the muck. In this single motion, he has actually folded, while trying to trick the newbie that he has called. Newbie falls for it and flips over pocket eights. Mizrachi pauses and looks around the table, then raises his hands in the air showing no cards, waiting for everyone to notice this trick. Laughter ensues.

He’s clearly just goofing around, not trying to shoot any angles, yet at the same time I can tell that a few eyebrows are raised at the table. A few orbits later he tries the same trick against me.

I’m 99% certain he folded, but its such a quick motion that I want to make sure. I ask “You have cards?” I would hate to muck and he actually does have cards.

He laughs and pulls the chips back. “Nah.”

After he tries this trick for a third time, several players at the table, and the dealer, are clearly getting annoyed at his shenanigans. He’s a bold, brash player, and now he’s starting to show his age. Unfortunately, no matter how many millions he’s made at poker thus far, this is exactly how an immature player would act at the table. This might be funny in a home game, and this $500 buy-in tourney may be chump-change to him, but he’s no longer funny to the table.

My first interesting hand happens during level 4, with the blinds at 100-200 and my stack at around 6000. I’ve been folding a lot, so when its folded around to me with As7c on the button, I raise to 600. SB joined just before the break. He has been talking a lot with Mizrachi, and has the full Young Asian Hipster look going. Shades are mirrored, expensive shirt, gold necklaces, rings, spikey hair, the works. He asks how much I’ve got left. I raise my arm and let him figure it out, without counting for him or saying a word. He eyeballs my stack and raises to 1200. I’ve got the vibe that he was just trying to put a scare in me and steal back, so I call. He’s been liberally calling and raising, and has me covered by maybe 500.

The flop comes Qs-8s-3s. SB quickly shoves his stack in. My first thought is fold, it mostly missed me, and I was on a steal anyway. As I’m pondering, SB leans forward to look around the dealer, and is checking me out. I glance over, and he’s staring. He leans in closer, and is now invading the dealer’s personal space. The dealer leans back to get out of his way, probably fearing Spike might try to plant a wet one on him.

At this point I’m thinking that he’s overtly trying to stare me out of the hand, and I’m sensing weakness. Now I’m actually running through the math. 9 outs to the nut flush. Three aces are probably good outs. If he hasn’t even paired, three 7s may also be good outs, and I would already have the best hand with ace high. I may have as many as 14 outs, which would put me over 50% to improve to a better, or nut, hand by the river.

After I run through this, he still staring, hovering over the dealer. Doesn’t he know that I’ve read Caro’s book, too? Strong means weak. I call.

He slumps back in his chair and says the two words I love to hear, “Good call.” He turns over Ts7d. Wow, its even better than I thought -- he’s dead to three tens. Two non-spade blanks on the turn and river, and I’m the new table captain. I feel like telling him not to be so obvious next time, but he’ll just have to figure that out himself.

I continue to play tight and aggressive, only folding, open raising or re-raising. This works well, and by the second 15 break I’m at $12,975 and we are down to 17 players.

Soon are down to 12 players and I’m about average with around $14,000. The blinds are 500-1000, 50 ante. The older guy who was previously kissing Mizrachi’s ass raises UTG to $3100. I have KsQs in the SB, and call another $2600, mainly because we’re short handed and I’m guessing I probably have the best hand or overcards.

The flop comes Qd-7d-2d. I consider the range of hands that he might have -- any pocket pair, AK down to maybe A8, and possibly some lower hands like JTs. I estimate that I’m only beat here by AQ, KK, AA or a lucky flush or set, and I’m way ahead of many other hands he might have. I go all-in. He calls, and I immediately think that I’m cooked. He flips 6s6c -- , no diamond! I double up, he’s crippled. What a strange call, and so close to the money. My best guess is that he thought I was moving in with AK.

Soon we are down to the final table of 9, with 8 places paid. We make a save for 9th place, who will get $800. I am in 2nd or 3rd in chips, depending on stack fluctuations from hand-to-hand.

When the blinds hit 800-1600/100 ante, with 8 players left, someone starts talk of a deal. The guy in 1st has about $46,000 in chips, and he’s solid, not making any mistakes. I have $22,100 in chips, and am in 2nd or 3rd place. Even so, a meaningful open raise of $4,000 approaches 20% of my stack. One mistake hand and its nearly all-in or fold for me. For most of the table, its already all-in or fold. We won’t see post-flop play until we loose 3 or 4 players.

The prize pool is just over $40,000 total, after the $800 paid to 9th. The prizes are roughly:
1st -- $15,000
2nd -- $10,000
3rd -- $5300
4th -- $2800.
The proposed deal is just to chop the pot 8 even ways, with the justification being that luck will decide the final 4 or 3 players and we are all so close in chips. The guy in 1st place voices his objection, so the deal changes to $6000 for him, and the other 7 players chop the remainder evenly, which would be just under $5000 per player. I give this deal the thumbs up, knowing that I may be giving up a few hundred dollars of equity based on my current chip count in exchange for a guaranteed payment that’s nearly 3rd place money..

One old guy objects to the deal and holds out, because he’s convinced that he has nearly $40,000 in chips, too. He has huge stacks of black $100s, whereas I and several others have lots of pink $500s and some yellow $1000s. We can all see that he is miscounting his $100s, and actually has about half of what he believes he has. After some heated discussion about the size of his stack, its resolved by this exchange:

“If you have over $40,000 in chips, I’ll pay you $1000 cash right now!” says the guy to my left.

“OK, smart guy, I take that bet!” replies the old fart. “Count my stack!”

Its counted out at around $18,000. This abruptly ends the discussion, and we have a deal. It’s a wonder this old fart lasted so long in the tournament.

I have to wait for about an hour to get paid, and all awards are paid in chips. Final payout is $4,845 After I receive my chips, I have to take a break and admire them for a moment, being a chip collector. I wonder if I am the first person at the Bellagio to take pictures of chips in the sports book.

As I’m leaving the poker room, the exclusive single-table private room is now populated by Jennifer Harman, Phil Ivey, David Benyamine, David Oppenheim and Eli Elezra. How in the world do these predators play with each other and make money? Maybe they’re waiting for a big fish to arrive… or maybe one of them is the big fish…

I report the results to my wife, who is eating dinner with other family. Later, after I’ve turned chips into cash (I was somewhat tempted to keep the chips for the collection), we convene out by the dancing waters for one show, then head to Noodles for my late dinner.

I’m definitely playing at the Bellagio next time.

Math & Poker

[Another previous ChipTalk post that I really like.]

Regardless of how a player characterizes himself, he must make mathematically correct decisions in the long run to be successful in poker.

One way to put this in play:

1. Introduction to poker -- learn the basics of the game.

2. Learn the math of the game, so you can calculate pot odds, etc. at the table (actually running calculations in your head).

3. Practice, practice, practice so the math elements become second-nature in your play on the fly. You should be constantly calculating the price that you are getting on each and every bet. Thousands of on-line hands are excellent for this practice.

4. Learn to read other players in live play. You're already routinely doing the math in your head, so you can focus more on your reads of players.

5. Become an expert, where the math and the people-reading are second nature, and you're naturally into the flow of the game based on math and reads and making decisions based on instinct.

I'm somewhere at #4. Where are you?

The successful pros that (truthfully) claim they didn't read the books to learn the math were actually doing #2-4 at the same time, and a lot of these same players also admit that they took a pounding until they figured out "how to play the game " (i.e. make correct math decisions).

A lot of internet players are making a successful jump to live tournaments and cash play because they've spent a massive amount of time on #2-3, and also realize that they are good at reading other players in live play.

Some hard-core math wonks fail at #5, and will never make it to the top levels of poker because they will never read other players very well.

A Poker Horror Story

[I originally posted this on ChipTalk in January 2006. Seems like a good addition to my new blog.]

This is not a bad beat story. Its much worse.

Several family members were in town over a weekend in late August to celebrate my daughter’s sixth birthday. My daughter also started kindergarten that week, so it was exciting times.

I have taught my family how to play poker over the last several years. When we gather, poker is now the game of choice in the evening. They helped break in the new Pharaoh [poker chip] set with long sessions on Friday and Saturday night. All had fun.

On Sunday afternoon, my Mom asked if she could play on a play money table at one of the internet poker sites. I said sure, and set her up on a play table at PokerStars through my account. My nephew picked up where she left off on the play tables, and they promptly blew through 1000 starting play chips and two 1000-play-chip reloads. Apparently, only two play-chip reloads is allowed every 24 hours, so they were done.

In the evening, while I was tending to kids baths and book reading, my niece wanted to play on an internet play table. My niece asked my Mom for help and, without my knowledge or permission, my niece started playing on PokerStars.

Can you guess where this story is going?

About 8:30pm, I went downstairs and saw my niece playing on PokerStars. I saw that she was at the $5/$10 no-limit hold ‘em table, playing with real money. She had about $44 on the table.

I froze in horror.

“You know you’re playing in my real money account, right?” I asked.

“No, I’m not. This is a play table,” she replied.

“No, see that dollar sign in front of the number? That means real money.”

“No, this is a play table. Grandma [my Mom] set it up for me.”

“No, that’s my real money. Move and let me show you.”

I sat down and closed the table, then opened the Cashier window. It said $44. I reviewed my records. The total damage:

$1,653 lost.

Aaaaaaaaaaa!!!!

Learn from my mistake -- DO NOT let friends or family play on your account, even if its play money. I set only let my Mom and nephew play on a play table, and the whole debacle happened without my knowledge. My Mom thought she knew what she was doing when she helped my niece open the site and play, but she was horribly wrong.

Christmas Epilogue

To put this disaster in perspective, I made a single $200 deposit in early 2003, and have built up my entire on-line bankroll from that one deposit. The pain of the episode was partially the money lost, but more that I had carefully built up my entire on-line bankroll through careful, methodical, tight-aggressive play in ring games, tournaments and SNGs from that one deposit.

Luckily, I have my on-line bankroll spread around on several sites, and less than half was in my PokerStars account. So, I transferred some from FullTilt to PStars, and continued playing. My new goal was simply to win back what she had lost.

By the end of the year, I had recovered everything that she lost, and a good bit more. In the long run, it won’t matter – but I will always know that my on-line bankroll is short by over $1,600.

There was no one to really blame for this crime. My niece thought that she was on a play table. My Mom thought that she opened things up the same way I did. I didn't know they were doing it, while I was spending time with the kids.

In an effort to repay me, my niece sent me two checks in approximately the total amount of the loss. I declined her attempt at repayment. Instead, as a Christmas gift, I bought her “Zen and the Art of Poker.” I took the two checks, wrote “VOID” on the face of each, laminated them together (back-to-back), and slipped that in the book as a bookmark.

A $1,600 bookmark – my most expensive Christmas gift ever.

Simple Math -- Your Set vs. Apparent Flush

Situation:

Hero has $200. Hero has 8-8. Six players call a mini-raise to $4. Flop:

2c 8c 3c

Hero bets $20. Table folds around to CO who has about $300. CO pushes. Hero's play?

Analysis

If you think there is around a 70% chance that he's already got the flush, this is still a CALL.

First, calculate your pot odds. Assuming that you sat down with the $200 max, the pot is:
$24 PF betting
+$20 your flop bet
+$20 his call
+$176 his raise (what you've got left)
=$240 pot

It costs you $176 to call, so you're getting 1.36 to 1 on your call to win a $240 pot.

Let's calculate for two scenarios, which are very likely the case in this hand:

1. He's already got the flush, with something like Ac 7c.

Your probability of winning this hand is 34% (verified by PokerStove). So, your EV of this hand:

34% x $240 = $81
66% x -$176 = -$116
81 + -116 = -35
Total EV if you call and he already has the made flush is -$35.

2. He's got the Ace-high flush draw, with somethinh like Ac7d.

Your probability of winning this hand is 71% (verified by PokerStove). So, your EV of this hand:

71% x $240 = $170
29% x -$176 = -$49
-116 + 81 = $121
Total EV if you call and he's on the flush draw is $121.

Now, the critical question -- what do you think the probability is that he already has the made flush?

First, let's say that you think there's a 60% chance he has the made flush, and 40% chance he's on the flush draw. The total EV of this situation is:

60% x -$35 = -$21
40% x $121 = $48
Total EV = $25 ----> CALL!

Now lets say that you think there's a 70% chance he has the made flush:

70% x -$35 = -$24
30% x $121 = $36
Total EV = $12 ----> CALL!

What's the break-even point? At about 77% chance he has the made flush, then its a coin-flip in terms of EV:

78% x -$35 = -$27
22% x $121 = $26
Total EV = -$1 ----> Fold.

What this means in practical terms --
Let's say that you are in this exact situation 100 more times, and there's exactly a 70% chance he already has the made flush. If you call each of those 100 times, you will win about $1200 total.

Basic Aggression

An early attempt to convince myself to play aggressive. Simple, basic poker concept. I am posting this only to see what my new blog looks like. I'm assuming that I'll be the only one reading this (at least for a while).

There are two key components to poker – cards and chips. Most poker players focus on their cards. By playing more aggressive, you put your chips to work for you, and the cards become less important.

Poker Lesson 101 (which we all forget from time to time): There are two ways to win at poker –

1. You have the best hand at the showdown.

2. You make your opponent fold before the showdown.

The only way to make you opponent fold before the showdown is to play aggressive.

Aggression doesn’t mean playing loose, playing a lot of hands, or playing like a maniac. Playing aggressive means taking the lead in betting when you play a hand. You don’t have to play a lot of hands, but you should be aggressive when you do play a hand. You can take the lead in betting by simply betting if you are the first to act, or raising if someone has bet in front of you. This is the essence of aggression, plain and simple.

Your goal with aggression is to make your opponent respond to your actions. If you find yourself facing lots of difficult decisions, this means that your opponent is betting and making you respond her actions. You want your opponent to make lots of difficult decisions, and you can do this only with betting first, or raising after she bets.

So, this sounds simple enough. But how can you actually make your play more aggressive? Initially, there are three very simple rules to follow. This can be incorporated into your play each time you sit at the table, which has the overall effect of raising your aggression level:

When in doubt about whether to check or bet – bet.

When in doubt about whether to call or raise – raise.

When in doubt about whether to call or fold – fold.

A key part of each rule is “when in doubt.” There will be certain situations that warrant a call, and other situations that warrant a check. When you are confident that the correct action is a check or a call, do it. But when you are in doubt about the best action (which happens frequently) err on the side of aggression. For example, in a no-limit hold ‘em cash game, you raise in middle position with pocket jacks, the button calls and everyone else folds. The flop is Ks-7s-3h. As you expected, there’s one over-card to your jacks, but at least its not an ace. Where do you stand in the hand? Since you are in doubt, make a bet and find out, rather than checking and then calling her bet or folding. If she calls your bet, you have some information about her hand. If she folds, then you win, and basic aggression pays off.

Another simple way to raise your aggression is to limp less and raise more pre-flop. You’ve heard this before, but do you really practice it? Early in tournaments, the tendency is to limp along with everyone else and see a cheap flop. Many NLHE cash games take on this texture, also. If you play along by limping, you fail to take the lead in the hand. By raising pre-flop, you have announced that you have a hand that is at least stronger than a limping hand (even if it actually is not), and you make the other players respond to your action. Then on the flop, this allows you to again take the lead in betting and continue to make opponents respond. If you happen to hit your hand, you are in great shape. If you didn’t hit your hand, you still have the chance of winning the pot by making your opponent fold the best hand.

And, since you raised pre-flop, many players will expect you to make a bet on the flop, since you took the lead in betting pre-flop. They will anticipate your aggression, and will be thinking that they should be responding to your action rather than making you respond. This is where the game gets more interesting, and allows players to set traps, slow-play, and other tricky stuff. But, the point is that by taking the lead pre-flop, other players naturally have the mind-set that you started with the best hand and will therefore be responding to your action.

If you incorporate these suggestions in to your overall game and raise your aggression, other players will learn that you are aggressive and that they will have to respond to your actions. If you play with a regular group of opponents, they will learn your aggressive tendencies over time. If you just sat down at an on-line table with a bunch of anonymous players, they will also observe that you regularly take the lead in betting and will have to respond to your aggression. In either case, your opponents will anticipate that when you are involved in a pot, they will have to respond to your actions.

This will give you the lead in any game. If a player acts before you, you want them to be thinking: “If I limp in and she gets involved in this pot, then I’m going to have to call her raise, because she’s always raising the limpers.” If you act first and open for a raise, you want any opponent acting after you to think: “If I call her raise, I’m going to face another bet on the flop because she’s aggressive.” You want your opponents to be constantly concerned about your aggression when you are involved in a pot. This enhances your chances to win by method #2 – win the pot before the showdown.

Couple your enhanced aggression with tighter pre-flop hand selection, and you’ve got a winning style.