Has it really been four months since my last post? Still, I won't apologize because I write this for myself to chronicle my poker. I hate poker blogs that apologize for the frequency of posts.
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I am now 40. Upon reaching the official date of middle age, I reflect that I remain a avid poker player and fan. I still play as often as I can, which is not often enough. I need to go to Vegas for a weekend and play in a few donkaments and easier cash games than I encounter in Missouri.
Since its been so long since my last post, it is time to dump all of the stuff I’ve written over the last few months but haven’t taken the time to actually publish.
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Punished for a Good Read
$2/5 NLHE game at Harrahs. Villain has about $500 and I have him covered. Villain is somewhat loose, not too aggressive, but I don’t have a lot of history with him and we have only been at the table together for maybe 30 minutes.
Villain limps UTG+2, and there are a few other callers. I have JJ and make it $25. Villain calls, the remainder fold.
Pot is about $60. Flop is 6d-7d-4c. Villain checks. I bet $50, Villain calls. My read is that he is on a draw of some sort, probably diamonds. His mannerisms in calling said to me, “Don’t try to push me around. I can’t be pushed off this hand so easily.” Like he was sort of offended by my bet.
Pot is now about $160. Turn is (6d-7d-4c)-Th. Villain checks. I bet $100. Villain calls. I get the same read as on the flop from his call.
Pot is about $360. River is (6d-7d-4c-Th)-9s. Villain quickly pushes for about $325. Given the action in this hand, this is a huge bet. My immediate reaction is that he is trying to bully me out of the pot. This cannot be a value bet. If he had the straight or a two-pair hand, he would bet much less to get a call out of me.
I think for while. He is staring at me. I get an extremely strong read that he does not want me to call. Its as if I can read his mind. I am reluctant given the size of the bet. The Golden Rule of No Limit is screaming at me: “Don’t go broke with one pair.” But my read is completely overriding the Golden Rule.
So I call, and wait for him to table his hand. He does not, and there is a long pause. The dealer tells him to show his hand. He very sheepishly says, “Pair of fours.” He turns over 8d-4d. I table my jacks. I’m congratulated for a very tough call. The dealer starts to collect the pot and push it my way.
The someone at the other end of the table says, “He has a straight.” Villain, the dealer, and the entire table initially missed that he had a straight, 10 to 6. Villain says, “Oh shit, sorry. I was only thinking about the flush. I just thought I missed my flush. I didn’t see the straight.”
So this fucker stumbles upon the winner without realizing it, runner-runner for the straight. This means that he really did think that he was bluffing at the river. My read was exactly right – he thought he was way behind and he did not want me to call. During a break in the action later, he apologized again for missing the straight, and I believe that he actually missed the straight and misread his hand on the river.
So, congratulations to me for making the right read, but I lose about $500. This hand, and specifically my river call for about $325, made the difference between having a winning and losing night. I later dug myself most of the way out of this hole during the remainder of the session, and ended up losing about $200 for the night.
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Trust Your ReadDuring this session my read was on. Not just during the game, but even as I sat down.
Something I always do when I arrive at a table is scope everyone out and make an initial read as to their ability and style. Hey, they’re doing the same about me, right?
So I have learned to trust my instincts on these matters. Whatever I feel about a player determines how I play against them, until proven otherwise. For example, someone may be trying to give off the appearance of being cocky and the table captain, but if I detect fear underlying this appearance then I will play against him knowing that his decisions are ultimately controlled by his fear rather than his cocky act.
So when I sat down at the Main Game and checked out the players, I said to myself about Seat 7: “Looks quiet, and knowledgeable but scared. Probably plays too tight and gives away PF hand strength based on the frequency of his raises. Looks like the kind of guy that could lose his stack with a one-pair hand.”
About 90 minutes later this hand comes up:
Seat 7 has around $600 and I have around $1000. I raise to $20 UTG in Seat 4 with 88. UTG+1 calls, Seat 7 raises to $65 total. SB calls, I call, UTG+1 calls.
Four players to the flop of K-8-4, all spades. SB and I check, UTG+1 checks. Seat 7 bets $80, SB folds. Time to announce that this is my pot. I raise to $250 total. UTG+1 folds. Seat 7 thinks for a bit and just calls.
Hmmm…now what does he have? PF I think that his range is AA-JJ, AK, maybe getting frisky on the re-raise with AQ, TT, 99. The call of my check-raise signals one of three things – (1) AK with or without the A-spades, (2) AA with or without the A-spades or (3) KK. But thinking further, would he just call my flop check-raise with KK? No, he would shove.
That leaves us with two hands – AA and AK – neither of which give him the flush yet, both of which I beat, and both of which fit my read of him the moment I sat down. He’s going broke with a one pair hand unless he hits the flush with the A-spades.
Turn is a non-spade low card, I push and he calls the remainder of his chips which is around $300. The river gives me the boat with 88844. He reveals AK (both red), confirming my read.
An now is a good time to reinforce my Golden Rule of No-Limit Hold ‘em: Don’t go broke with one pair.
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Mississippi Straddle Hand
THE SHORT VERSION for the reading impaired and impatient
$2/5 NLHE with a Mississippi Straddle (See explanation in long version). Villain is a 40-something, shade-wearing LAG, bordering on a tilting spew-monkey LAGtard based on recent hands.
I am UTG+1 with about $735, Villain has me covered. UTG folds, and I raise to $20 with JJ. But after the UTG fold and my action, dealer then announces that button straddled, so SB is first to act instead of UTG. I pull my bet back.
SB completes, BB folds, and I announce raise. Dealer will only let me raise to my original $20 raise, which is now a min-raise with the straddle in play. Villain is to my immediate left and calls. Button calls, SB calls. Four to the flop with a $80 pot.
Flop is 6c-7d-8d. SB checks. I bet $60. Villain calls, Button folds, and SB calls. Pot is now $265.
Turn is (6c-7d-8d)-Qc. SB checks. I check. Villain bets $225. SB folds.
THE LONG VERSION
This is a very interesting hand and a long one because there’s a lot that goes into my read. Are you willing to take the time think through this one with me?
The Game:$2/5 NLHE, Harrahs in Kansas City. This is played with the “Mississippi Straddle” which is new to this card-room. Any one player besides BB and SB can straddle, which is double the BB. The player in latest position has the first option to straddle. Examples: If UTG and cut-off both want to straddle, CO has priority; if CO and Button both want to straddle, Button has priority. Pre-flop, the first player to act is the player immediately after the straddle. If button straddles, the SB must act first PF; if CO straddles, then button must act first, etc.
This option is relatively new, and both the dealer and players are getting used to it. Its not always used in every hand, so the dealer has to announce when someone is straddling to let the table know who should act first PF. Sometimes its goofed up by players and the dealer…
The Set-Up and My Table Image:I have $735 to start this hand. I am at the main game, having played at the feeder table for only about 30 minutes. I’ve been up and down in this game, from a high of $1200 to a low of $400. I got back to over $700 about an hour earlier. I’ve been loose PF, but have hit absolutely nothing so my appearance is relatively tight for about the last hour.
The Hand: I am UTG+1 with JJ. UTG folds and I raise to $20. Standard PF raise has been to $20 or $25 at this table.
Dealer then says, “Take that back, there is a straddle on the button.” I did not see the straddle and dealer did not call it out before UTG started the action. The SB also did not see the straddle. I simply acted after UTG folded. So, it turns out that UTG and I acted out of turn. I pull my bet back.
Now SB completes to $10, BB folds and the action is on me. Dealer says, “If you want to play this hand, your previous action is binding.” I do want to play the hand, and announce raise. Now I want to raise to $50 total. I ask for clarification about what the dealer meant by “previous action.” Dealer explains that my raise amount was also binding. So, according to the dealer, if I want to play the hand, I must to raise to exactly $20, which is now just a min-raise.
I contemplate calling the floor for a ruling, but decide that would probably be detrimental because the floor would either: (1) uphold the ruling, in which case my $20 raise stands and I’ve stopped the action and called unwanted attention to myself; or (2) overrule the dealer, in which case I would raise to a larger amount and spook everyone that didn’t already have a premium pair, scaring away all action. That’s what some players want to do with JJ pre-flop. But, I don’t like to play scared. So I let it go and just raise to $20.
Villain to my immediate left calls, and everyone else folds. So its SB, me, Villain and Button in the hand.
Flop is 6c-7d-8d. SB checks. I bet $60. Villain calls, Button folds, and SB calls. At this point I’m thinking that Villain and SB are probably on draws, or I could be up against a big hand, but I’m leaning more toward draws because a big hand would probably put in a healthy raise here given the coordinated nature of the board.. Pot is now $265.
Turn is (6c-7d-8d)-Qc. SB checks. I get the vibe that SB is scared of the board and is done with the hand. I check with the intention of check-raising Villain if he bets, or bailing out, depending upon my read of Villain’s action.
Villain bets $225. SB, as I thought, folds. Action is now on me. Time to size things up. I go into the tank for several minutes on this one.
The Villain:I sat to the left of Villain at the feeder table and now he has position on me. He’s 40-ish and wearing silly oversized shades, dressed business casual – better dressed than most in the room. He thinks he’s a player. He’s been one of the loosest players at both tables. I can tell he’s been bluffing a lot, not afraid to mix it up. Bets at a lot of orphan pots. So going to the flop his range is wide open – he’ll call a standard PF raise with any two playable cards.
I have not seen him make any big calls when he is way behind. He did get unlucky within the last hour and got stacked for nearly $800, and he re-bought for the max $500. He’s quickly built that up to around $800 and now just has me covered. I think he may still be steaming a bit from the beat that he took, which is why he appears to be pushing the action even more right now.
My analysis:First, the pot odds. The pot is $490 and its $225 for me to call. What if I pushed? I have about $665 in my stack, so if I pushed my raise to him would be about another $430 more in a $1155 pot. He would get better than 2 to 1 if he called my push, but I still think that this is enough of a raise that he would fold everything but a very strong hand.
What does he have? I can start by ruling out a big pocket pair. Given what happened PF with the straddle goof, he would certainly have re-raised with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and maybe also AQ and TT. Given how the PF action went, his call signals any pair 99 or lower and any two other playable cards, including all manner of suited connectors. So he doesn’t have a big PF hand, but he could have anything else.
Does he have a big hand, including a set of 888, 777, 666, QQQ or T9/54? I’m sure he does not have a set of queens. I think its unlikely that he flopped a set, because then he very likely would have raised my $60 bet on the flop. Either the SB or I could easily have had two diamonds on the flop and he would bet a set hard to drive out a flush draw. The same analysis applies to T9/54 for the flopped straight – he would raise that hand to protect on the flop.
What about a good but not very strong hand, like 87, 86, or 76 for two pair? Yes, these seem like real possibilities. He might call with these hands, see how the board develops on the flop and if another diamond comes.
What about AQ? Maybe, but I can’t see him floating the flop with SB yet to act with just two overcards, unless his design was to take the hand away later. Unless… he has AQ diamond. This would be a perfect hand to bet here on the turn because he now has top pair and the nut flush draw.
What about a no-pair flush draw, like AK diamonds? He likely would have raised PF with any AK hand, so I don’t see this holding.
What about a bluff? Yes, also a very real possibility, given his playing style and the fact that he might be somewhat steaming and also smelling weakness by SB and me. (I have to factor in SB somewhat in this hand even though he’s already folded, because Villain bet $225 with SB and me still to act on the turn.)
So, I settle on this range:
Big pair like AA, KK, QQ, JJ – not really possible.
AK – not really possible
Set of 888, 777, 666 or T9/65 for the straight – about 10%, because he probably would have raised on the flop
AQ-diamonds – 10%
Two pair with 87, 86 or 76 – 30%
Bluff – 50%
Overall, this hand smells most like a bluff because my flop bet plus a check on the turn looks weakish, and because SB really seemed to be on a draw. My CR push here would look most like a set of QQQ or AA/KK. He calls if he has a set or the straight, he probably calls with the flush draw (especially with AQ flush draw) and its 50/50 whether he calls or folds two pair because my push looks most like a set of QQQ.
Finally, is he capable of analyze this hand enough to lay down two-pair? I think so, based on his prior play.
So I pushed. What do you think of my reasoning and action?
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