Monday, January 21, 2008

On-Line Rebuilding Plan

1. Eliminate bluffing almost entirely. Everyone calls too much on-line. Like me, at my levels of play, no one believes that you have hand. Let my opponents' bad calls when I have a hand make up for the times that I could have won with a bluff but did not fire. This is completely different than my live play...

2. Stay tight. Resist the urge to LAG it up like everyone else. My best results come from when I play tight.

3. Leave the table when I am up. If I can win 20-30 BBs at any cash table, I will be perfectly satisfied to leave, bank the profit and start another table. Exception: a clear donk just waiting to give his chips away.

4. Stick mostly to SNGs, where I have my best returns.

5. Keep Omaha tables very low-limit, in my effort to learn this game.

6. Run the math of hands after sessions. I used to do this all the time, but stopped mainly because I don't feel that I need much practice at this any more. But, it wouldn't hurt to get back to the basics and review the math on a regular basis. Come to think of it, my downward slide on-line roughly corresponds to when I stopped doing my poker math homework away from the tables...

7. Stay away form heads-up play, both cash games and SNGs. The variance is too high when you are trying to rebuild.

8. Play at full 9-seat tables. My SNG and cash games results are the very best at 9-seat tables.

9. Read hand analysis on 2+2 more often, stay away from the junk posts.

10. Have fun, don't play scared.

What is going on?

If you don't want to read about another poker player whining about his results, then skip this and move on. I write this for myself, anyway, and not possible readers.

I cannot win anything on-line. I used to win at on-line poker on a regular basis. I still win at live poker. I am fairly certain that my poker skills have not dropped that noticeably, but now I am questioning things.

I cannot cash in a SNG of any type at any level. I cannot post a winning session in an on-line cash game. No, I do not think on-line poker is rigged.

Its a neverending series of bad beats which defies all odds. Nothing like this happens with my live play. So now I am questioning myself. Am I playing too aggressively? Too tight? Can players read me too well? Are players using stat tracking tools that peg me?

I really don't think my game has changed that much. I still play roughly the same style that has worked very well in the past. I change my game up based on the complezion of the table. I calculate the math of every hand and incorporate that into my play on a constant basis.

But I continue to lose at a steady clip. Can't win a race. Fantastic second-best hands. Regular runs of completely unplayable junk that drops me to <10 BBs in SNGs. Someone calls raises, I flop nothing, I cannot bet, because I will get called if they flop anything.

I'm playing more Omaha hi. (I will post my personal Omaha rules at some point -- already written up.) I flop the nut straight. I play it as fast as possible with successive pot-sized bets on the flop and turn, and get called by unplayable hands that run me down. Yes I want players to make these bad, unprofitable calls, but I want to win a fucking hand once in a while! Its devastating my on-line backroll and my confidence.

I love this game, but I cannot keep playing when I absolutely cannot win. I am doubting my abilities as a result of this run, but keep reminding myself that its the long run that counts. And, nothing like this happens with my live play.

I don't think that the skills I use in live play can make that much difference with my on-line game, but I have no other explanation for what is happening besides this or just amazing horrible luck. I've won a good deal at on-line play before, and I keep telling myself that it can happen again, But I am seriously starting to wonder if that is true anymore.

NOTE: For any Team Hephastus players that may read this, I have had a never-ending series of work-related Thursday night meetings since the second week in December. I work with a lot of cities, and city councils hold most meetings at night. I am attending more of these meetings than ever before, with lots of travel. If I had known this would be the case, I would not have signed up for the team again. Even if I could make it, I am sure that my on-line performance would not change on Thursday nights...

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Three Live Hands

The Game: Live NLHE, $1/2 blinds, $5 to call. Typical PF raise is to $15 or $20

The Villain: Wildly loose and aggressive player, but also very friendly. He’s the kind of guy you want at the table because he looses everyone up, but also puts them at ease with friendly chatter. Since I had the identical playing style as him (except for all his talking), we locked horns at every possible opportunity including these three big hands in one Friday evening session. I’m in seat 2, he’s in seat 7.

Hand #1: After 2 folds, he raises in MP to $20. After one caller, I raise on the button to $60 with AK-hearts. He raises to $120 total. Guy in between folds, and I call $60 more and we’re heads up. I’m thinking he either has AA, KK, or re-raised with just about anything to squeeze out the other guy and get HU with me. Pot is about $220.

Flop is 8-6-3, two spades. He bets $120 and I call. Now I’m putting him on a continuation bet, and I plan to take the hand away later. Pot is about $440.

Turn is (8-6-3)-4, did not complete a spade flush. This appears to change nothing. He counts out chips as if he has every intention of betting, but then looks at me and checks. In his split second glance, I read strength and that he was going to CR me if I bet. So, I check.

River is (8-6-3-4)-7, did not complete the spade flush. He bets $200. I make like I’m thinking long and hard about the call, but what I’m really thinking about is how badly I fucked this hand up. I fold.

Analysis: Except for maybe my PF call of his raise, I think I played every street poorly. If I call on the flop with the intention to take it away later, I need to follow though. But, my read on the turn may have saved me chips, because Hand #2 below was very similar and confirmed 100% that he hs the ability to slow play a monster all the way to the end. At the end of Hand #1, I really thought I misplayed it, but after Hand #2 I think my only mistake was the flop call.

Hand #2: This hand is only relevant for one purpose. After no PF raise and smallish bets on all streets, including his check-call on the turn, the river is Ac-Kc-Qc-Tc-6h. He checked on the river, and I bet $60 on a pure bluff (I had no club). He checked-raised to $160 total. I folded, and he showed Jc-9s for the royal flush. He check-called and checked the river with a Royal Flush, setting me up to make my river bluff! Very well played by him. He also collected the $950 club-Royal Flush jackpot.

This hand confirmed that I believe he was slow-playing me on Hand #1, because I saw him play strong hands like this against two other players. Note to self: this slow-playing mofo is dangerous.

Hand #3: Mind games from past hands came into play on this hand. Villain and I have built up the biggest stacks at the table over several hours of play, and I have around $1300. He has me covered by a bit.

Lots of limpers to a flop of A-Q-Q, rainbow. Villain bets $20 in EP, and after one caller I raise to $80 total on the button with Q6. Villain raises to $200. I put him on an ace, and I think that he thinks that I’m either on a draw or stealing -- I don’t think that he thinks I have a Q. Other guy folds what I assume to be some sort of straight draw, and ducked out of what would likely become a very expensive pot. I call, thinking that I have the best hand. Pot is about $440

Turn is (A-Q-Q)-K. Villain ponders a bet, but checks. I think he may have AJ, AT, Ax, maybe a Qx hand. I do not think that Villain has JT, and my read of the guy that got squeezed out on the flop was that he had JT based on his reaction on the turn. (Yes, reading players that folded already in a hand can come into play at times.) I do not think that Villain has AQ or KQ, or even QJ or QT, or he probably would have raised PF. I bet $300. Villain thinks for a long time, then calls. I get the strong sense that he does not really like his hand here, that I am ahead or at least we’re tied because we both have a Q, and his hesitation is true and not a slow-play (all past history to the contrary). Pot is over $1000 now, and I have about $800 left.

River is (A-Q-Q-K)-T. He looks genuinely scared and checks. I quickly push, with the intention of signaling, “Well, I have a boat, so there’s no way I can just check here. That should be very obvious.” Villain goes into the tank for an extremely long time. This is the longest that I have ever seen anyone take to make a decision in a cash game. He counts it out, and he has only a few chips more than me. He groans. “Why are you doing this to me?” He clearly is in a bind about this decision.

I sit motionless, and as things drag on I am 95% certain that he has a J for the straight and has me beat. JT? J9? AJ? I’m giving off full-house vibes with my body language: Call if you have the jack, because I obviously have the boat. What else would I have here? I have to have a boat to make this play! Fold, and save your money, or you are an idiot! You don’t want to blow that whole stack that you worked all night to build up with just a straight on that board, now do you? Fold, fold, fold! You are beat!

He calls with extreme reluctance. I flip over my Q6 and he flips over – Q5.

Villain explodes with great relief and comes around the table for a fist pump and a hand shake. “Shit, man, what a hand!! Wow, you had me scared there!” We exchanged a friendly “What are you doin’ playing a hand like Q6/Q5?” But we both knew the answer – we play these hands to catch flops and win big pots. And we both thought that this was the one – the winner sits with $2500+ in a freakin’ $1/2/5 NL game!. I asked him if he thought I had a boat, maybe KQ? Or QT that got there on the river?

His response was somewhat incoherent, and I think the tension and release of the hand prevented him from speaking. The only thing that he said which made any sense was, “I just didn’t think that you had AQ, man, or you would have raised pre-flop.” Yeah, but what about KQ or QT? Or even QJ?! Any reasonable Q-hand beats you. You really thought you were making a good call? I didn’t say any of this, of course.

Oh well, chop it up and play on. But we were both extremely cautious of each other after that. I ended the night around $1500, and he was very congratulatory as I left.

I generally like playing against weaker players, but I also genuinely appreciate these mind games at the table once in a while against someone who shows good sportsmanship and is not afraid to win or lose. It makes for some very fun poker.