The Clone Table Theory

Imagine that you are playing at a deep-stack, 9-player NLHE cash game table. Your 8 opponents are clones of you. They are not simply like you, they are you – exact clones of you today. Consequently, each player has exactly the same skill level and playing style.

How could you win in this game?
1. Avoid mistakes.
2. Randomize your play.
3. Have a bigger bankroll.
4. Get lucky.

If you are playing at a table against equally-skilled opponents, the best way to win is to reduce your mistakes and randomize your play. Even if your opponents understand your playing style perfectly (i.e. they are a clone of you), you can still be unpredictable by randomizing your play. Open with a wide range of starting hands. Play recurring hand types (i.e. draws) in different ways (sometimes call, sometimes raise). Respond to aggression in different ways. Make your opening raise constant (3xBB, as Mr. Ferguson teaches), but vary your post-flop bet or raise amounts.

There is also a key external factor – bankroll size. A bigger bankroll will allow you to better withstand bankroll fluctuations, and a bigger bankroll should provide more confidence, thereby reducing mistakes (or at least the fear of making mistakes) and enhancing aggression.

As players move up in playing levels, they get closer to the theoretical Clone Table. Over time, the natural selection process that occurs by winning at lower levels and moving up to higher levels brings together players that are more closely matched in style and ability. Picture the table in Bobby’s Room populated by Brunson, Ivey, Chan, Reese, Hanson, etc. – they all have large bankrolls, play aggressive, randomize their play, play with confidence, and avoid obvious mistakes. They aren’t clones of one another, and certainly have different playing styles, but in theory their skills are the most closely matched because they have risen through the ranks of weaker players and reached the poker pinnacle where the most highly skilled players compete.

These suggestions aren’t anything new, but imagining a Clone Table helps to emphasize the key attributes that would allow you to compete and win against equally-matched opponents, as well as lesser-skilled opponents.

I ♥ Live Poker

My hot streak in live play continues, and my on-line game flounders.

Due to rare scheduling of family events, I was able to play on the last two Friday nights in the Ameristar NLHE cash games. Two weeks ago, I won $1040, and last Friday I won just over $200.

Two weeks ago was a spectacular session. I actually started at the $1/2 NL game because that's the biggest game they had running. A single $2/5 NL table finally opened around 9pm. For some reason they let players sit down with $1000, so I was instantly in deep-stack play. My favorite. Most other players only bought in for around $300.

By 1am, my stack was over $2000 and the table closed. Between myself and the guy next to me, the only other decent player at the table, we literally cleaned everyone else out except for two poor souls with $200 stacks. So the table closed.

Last Friday, I was running really cold, and nothing connected early on. I made a heroic comeback for a positive night. I had lots of interesting confrontations, which I'd like to write about if I have time.

I'm 100% confident in my reads in live deep-stack cash play. Its not that I can read my opponents 100% of the time, but I can tell when my read is accurate, and when my read is uncertain. I can tell when I can't tell what my opponent holds. That make sense? I can feel when I can successfully push back, and I can feel when I don't have a good read and need to back off. I can play a wide range of hands and show down some goofy hands that connect, scaring the table and giving me an unpredictable style.

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My on-line game continues to suffer as I play more live games. I am dependent on a read of my opponents. So, I am floundering on-line. I'm not losing, I'm just not gaining ground anymore. I really think that the games are tougher now on-line. An on-line $1/2 NL is easily more difficult than a live $2/5 NL game.

I'm sticking to the $50 SNGs and the $1/2 and $2/4 NL games. Up $200, down $200. Up $300, down $300. There are no soft games that I can find. Plus, I've become more dependent on my live reads, which is just absent with on-line play. I'm liking the heads-up play even more because its the best way I can get a read on-line.

I'm going to try to get back to a more math-based game on-line, since I can't read there as well as live.

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The weather is getting cooler, football season is here, and Halloween is coming. I love this time of the year.