Cash Games Rock, sort of

On-Line Play:
Chiptalk tournament tonight, my QQ gets squashed early by AA on pre-flop action. I had about 1100 chips, so there's no way I can fold QQ here PF during the second level. In the same time +20 minutes, I am up $361 on the PStar NL cash tables. Tournaments suck, cash games rule.

Live Play last Saturday night, Ameristar:
$2/5NL. Average stack is around $500, I have about $1200 and have everyone covered. Guy to my immediate right is the Villain in this hand.

BACKGROUND:
Villain has been sitting at the table since I arrived, an I have won many chips from him. I’ve watched him pound four Coronas in about 90 minutes with his buddy to my immediate left, and he started drinking before I arrived about 7:30pm.

Some crucial prior hands against Villain.
1. Nearly the whole table limped to Villain on the button. Villain raises to $35. I have QQ in the SB and raise to $135 total. Villain is incensed. He stares me down, and tries to get me to talk. He thinks that I think he’s making a move on the button, and that I am simply restealing from him. This one-way chatter goes on for about 4-5 minutes, with me in silence, and then he finally folds in disgust.

2. About one orbit later, I limp with 25-hearts on the button. Flop is QT6 with two hearts. Checked to Villain who bets, and I think he probably has a Q with decent kicker, maybe 2-pair with QT. I call. Turn is another heart, [QT6]-9, completing my flush. He checks, I bet about half pot, he calls. River is a blank, no heart, he checks, I check, and O win with a flush. He is again angry, I think mainly at the quality of my flush.

After these and several others hands, he is whining constantly about the good starting hands that are getting ironed out by “all the bad players that keep calling my raises.” He’s showing me (but no one else) hands like QQ and AK that he has to fold to significant heat with overcards on the flop or other scary boards. Summarized, he is now a boiling mad drunk that plays otherwise solid poker.

THE HAND:
Many limpers to Villain on the button, who raises to $30. I call with QJo in the SB, BB calls, and one other player calls. Four to the flop with $120 in the pot.

Flop is TT9, two diamonds. I check, everyone checks to button, who bets $80. I think his range of hands is pretty narrow here, and be probably has a big PP or two high cards like AK or AQ. I call, thinking that if I hit my straight I might get his stack. Two other players fold. Pot is now $280.

Flop is [TT9]-8s. Beautiful. Now the only question is how to play this. I want him to think that I am on a diamond draw, and that he can push me off with a big raise with his overpair. I also want to set the price too high for him to profitably call if he does have a ten. I bet $150.

Villain is again incensed at my bet. He stares me down and starts chattering again, trying to get me to talk. He seems baffled as to what I might have. After a long time, he calls. Pot is $580.

River is [TT98]-9. At this point, I think that betting is useless, since he will obviously call or raise with a boat, and fold if he just has an overpair. If he bets, well... I will re-evaluate. I check.

He immediately says all-in very loudly, and shoves his stack in bulldozer style while simultaneously saying “put him on the clock.” Then he turns and stares.

I’m kind of baffled. My first thought is that his physical actions all indicate that he is trying to bully me out of the pot: quick act, shove chips in aggressively, call the clock. Everything says pressure. But after thinking for a moment, is he trying to pressure me into a call by overacting as the bully?

So now its my turn to talk. I first ask, “Did you actually just call the clock on me?”
His response: “You’re right, that’s just me being drunk.” He turns to the dealer: “I call the clock off.”

Is he trying to “give” me more time so that I can convince myself to call? Or, does he want me to fold, so now he’s giving me more time to prevent the pressure of forcing a quick call?

I ask for a count, and the pile of chips is re-assembled to $217 – it costs me $217 to win $797. I settle on this range of hands: 60% he has the ten, 40% he has something like KK or AA. I think it might even be 50/50.

Despite the theatrics on the river, the most important factor for me is the $80 bet on the flop. I can’t see him betting $80 with a ten in his hand with that flop -- I think he would lean more heavily toward (a) bet bigger (pot) to price out the flush draws, or (b) check and induce a bet if no diamond hits on the turn. An $80 bet on the flop is most consistent with AA, KK, QQ or JJ that is scared of a check-raise from someone trapping with the ten, which would mean that his actions on the river are trying to bully me into a fold.

I call. He shows AT-spades and I lose.

The night was still a success overall, based on my play and the $$$ results. But, as usual, I can’t help from analyzing this big losing hand over and over. Two questions remain:

1. Should I have pushed the turn? Probably not, but maybe so.

On the turn, I want to size my bet so that he will unprofitably call. Which I did, and he complied. The problem with this analysis, and any bet less than a push, is that I must fold to his river bet if he catches the winner. If I am going to pay him off on the river, than I should always push the turn when I am ahead and either take this pot or live with his massively unprofitable call and a bad beat on the river. Which then leads to the next question...

2. Should I have folded the river? Probably not.

I’ve run the math, but don’t want to post it all -- I would need to be at least 79% certain that he had a ten to justify a fold on the river, based on the price that I was getting.

So, the dilemma: I should have pushed the turn because I am unable to fold the river if I bet smaller on the turn (but still enough to make his call unprofitable), yet when I bet less than a push on the turn I am forced to call on the river because I think there is a much better than 20% chance that he is bluff-shoving with an overpair.

I’m happy with my read overall, because I think I assigned about the correct probabilities to his hand ranges. I wish I could say, “Yeah, I saw right through it, it was clear he had the boat on the river,” but my read was that he didn’t. I think I made the correct move on each street based on the math and my reads, but I’m still kind of stumped overall with this hand. The result sucked, but I had a specific reason for each action.

Hell, I shoulda pushed the turn.