Big Mother Bad Beat

Everyone bitches about bad beats. Statistically speaking, what is the worst possible bad beat?

I am proud to say that I have lived through what I believe to be the worst possible bad beat in hold ‘em. In a way, I’m kind of proud that this happened -- its like climbing to the summit of a 14,000-foot mountain. I have reached the pinnacle of bad beats, I have survived, and every other beat I will suffer in my poker career is just a minor irritant that dreams to be this truly horrendous beat, which I shall henceforth call the “Big Mother Bad Beat,” or just the Big Mother.

So, what is this Big Mother that I’m talking about? Let me describe it through this two-part analysis:

First, to set up the Big Mother, you need to flop a monster. Everyone likes to throw out the word “monster.”

“I flopped a monster!”

Oh yeah? What was it? A set? Maybe the nut flush? You call that a monster? I scoff at your puny monster.

The set up for the Big Mother is flopping a truly savage, evil, flesh-eating demon from Hell. A monster that children fear from under their bed, that they believe really exists. The Balrog from the Mines of Moria is close. Only a monster of enormous proportions qualifies for the Big Mother Bad Beat. I shall call this monster the “Sexy Beast,” and it consists of only two very select hands -- flopping quads or a straight flush.

Now, let’s take a moment to ponder the Sexy Beast. On those very rare occasions when we are blessed with a Sexy Beast, it is a bittersweet moment. You have an iron-clad lock on the hand, and your only concern is how to coax your opponent’s chips into the pot. Unfortunately, this is often impossible. When you flop a Sexy Beast, there is a very likely chance that your opponent has zilch, and he will dump the hand like yesterday’s girlfriend unless he feels the urge to run a bluff.

Second, now that we’ve flopped a Sexy Beast, how can this build into the Big Mother? Only one single scenario qualifies: your opponent is drawing dead except for two cards in the deck, which must appear in perfect succession on the turn and the river. Only if he catches perfect with those two cards, can he slay your Sexy Beast. Not a one-outer, which he has two chances to hit, but instead a two-outer that he has to hit in succession.

And, to make matters more difficult, the flop has to be an exact arrangement of cards that actually convinces him to put more chips into the pot on the flop rather than mucking. And, even more chips again on the turn, ideally his whole stack. This is nearly impossible, unless your opponent is just stupid.

What is the probability of the Big Mother occurring? I have no idea, but I know that its really improbable. Someone who’s better at statistics than me can calculate the odds of this happening.

By now you’re thinking, “Holy shit, man, that a lot of rambling for a single hand Can you get to the point?”

Okay, so now, I reveal to you the Big Mother Bad Beat.

Flopped quads beat by runner-runner quads. And I didn’t slow-play, either, so I should get bonus points.

After this hand, I wept tears of joy, for I had survived the Big Mother. And, fortunately, my opponent was on a shortish stack, so it all worked out nicely because I didn’t lose too much.

Twice I have suffered a one-out beat on the river for really big pots, but neither of those hands is as improbable as your opponent hitting two perfect cards on the turn and river.