Math and other stuff

WATCHING the Life of Ivey videos on PokerRoad, I realize something. There are lot of players that have substantial talent, but his extra strength seems to be the complete and absolute disregard for the real value of money. If you're a natural and you don't care about the money -- I mean really don't care -- then you can play without an ounce of fear. There are a lot of legendary gamblers, but Ivey seems to be in that extremely rare class that just does not care about the value of money even a little bit and is therefore devoid of any fear while playing at any level.

I've come close to this feeling on a few occasions, in my little corner of the poker world. When playing in the Ameristar Thursday night tournament (the only tournament in town worth playing), there have been a few nights where I was completely ambivalent about my outcome in the tournament. I had a medium to shortish stack in the middle stages, and the NL cash tables were bursting with the donks that had already busted out.

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POKER MEDIA PEOPLE, please stop interviewing Durrrr. He may be the latest poker prodigy, but he interviews poorly and has nothing to offer the audience.

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THE EGO OF POKER PLAYERS is starting to really show. Everyone has a writing blog or a video blog or a website or is being interviewed for their amazing and outlandish prop bets during the WSOP. For some its just a natural method of expression. For many others, its a pure ego trip to get their face on the tube and be watched by others.

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Listening to PokerRoad, I get the impression that a good number of players just sign up and play the WSOP tournaments, but don't regularly study the game or take the time to analyze their own game and improve, fill their leaks, etc. Its amazing how many buy-ins appear to be carelessly pissed away by careless play. Its as if some of the players are treating each tournament like just another boring day at the office rather than giving it the focus and attention needed to succeed on a continuous basis. Not everyone, but a lot of them.

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And now let's play -- Did I Play AK Like Donk?

Potentially big hand at the Main Table from this session, for which some math is required.

Villain plays with Team Yellow but has shown a propensity for overly tight play recently. I started with him at the Feeder Table and he was much more loose back then. I think his natural tendency is looser play, but has felt a bit ‘snake bit’ by this table. He has $435 and I have $1800. We are in the later part of my session and I am table boss.

Villain raises UTG to $35. Standard opening PF raise has been to $20 or $25 and I have been calling raises with a frustrating frequency to the other players. If Villain had a bigger stack I think a raise to $35 would signal a wider range of hands (including medium pocket pairs) but because he has recently lost several hundred and is visibly frustrated by his results at this table, my instinct is that he is protecting a genuinely big hand with the extra large raise.

One MP players calls. I have AK-spades in the CO an raise to $135. Its folded to Villain and he quickly pushes for about $300 over my raise. Squeezed caller in between us folds, and now its up to me.

Pot is 35 + 35 + 135 + 5 + 400 = $610. I am getting just over 2 to 1. What is his range of hands?

I think he has AA, KK, maybe QQ or JJ. I can put him on QQ or JJ only if I think he is extra frustrated and because he thinks I am bullying the table too much. His actions seem genuine, like he finally has the goods and is not afraid of the action. I do not see him doing this with AK, and absolutely not AQ or worse. He is clearly a cash game player, and is not treating this like a tournament.

So, I settle on 75% AA or KK and 25% QQ, possibly JJ. I fold, doing some quick calculations and deciding that the $300 call is better left in my stack against a close decision. Should I have called?

My equity against AA and KK is 77%/23%:
77% x -$300 = -$231
23% x $610 = $140
Total EV against AA and KK is -$91

My equity against QQ and JJ is 54%/46%:
54% x -$300 = -$162
46% x $610 = $280
Total EV against QQ and JJ is $118

75% x -$91 = -$68
25% x $118 = $30

Total EV against his weighted hand range is -$38. Yeah, I can find better situations for my chips.

This would become a +$18 EV if I think there is an equal chance he has AA, KK, QQ and JJ. Still not very good for my $300 call, compared to how I have been running this table.. I should be able to turn $300 into $500 based on how this table has been treating me.

I folded face down and said I had JJ, thinking that this lie would make it more likely for him to disclose his real hand if it beat mine. (The psychology of this lie is that he would have less inclination to lie that he had a bigger hand then he really did.) Villain did not show, but later said that he had QQ and did not want a call. Over the course of the next few hands, several other players at the table said they think he was lying about QQ and thought he had AA or KK, supporting my evaluation of the hand.

If I knew that he actually had exactly QQ, the EV of my call is $118, which is a clear call even considering how I was dominating this table. But I think he was lying, and not just as a rationalization of my calculations.