Finally, I get out to play. Last Saturday night, live casino $2/5 NLHE game. I started with an $800 stack using the 75% rule (you can sit down with 75% of the biggest stack at the table). After only about 10 minutes, I tangled with the big stack.
He was wearing a Penn State sweatshirt. I had not heard him speak a single word yet, but he was at the other end of the table. Most of the other stacks at the table were somewhere between $200 and $500, but PennState was the big stack with more than $1500. I noticed that he took a decent amount of flops, but I hadn’t seen him win much since I sat down and he seemed pretty tight after the flop..
PennState limped UTG. I had KK in MP and raised to $25. This was fairly standard and did not give away the strength of my hand. Everyone folded back to PennState, and he called. We were heads-up with a pot of about $55.
Flop came Ts-6c-8s. He checked, I bet $50. He check-raised to $100 total. This seemed like an odd bet. I immediately assumed he was on a spade flush draw with the minraise, and he was testing to see if I whiffed and was just making a continuation bet. I thought he might also have something like AT, and C/R here for the same purpose -- to get me to lay down AK or an underpair. I felt very certain at this point that I was ahead, so I decided it was time to put in a big raise. I raised back $250, the size of the pot. Play big pots with big hands, right?
He asks the dealer, “How much more?” About 10 seconds after receiving the answer, he announces that he is all in.
Well, crap. Now I’m really put to the test. The pot is about $930, accounting for the fact that he has me covered. I have about $425 left in my stack, so I am not committed here -- if I decide that I’m behind, I can preserve $425 and play on.
So what the hell does he have? I start to run through all the possibilities. Did he limp-call with AA? Very unlikely. Based on the way he’s playing this on the flop, if he had AA he would have either (1) re-popped it pre-flop after I raised, (2) bet out on the flop with two spades on board or (3) check-raised me much more. He had no way of knowing that I would help him build this big of a pot through 4 bets on the flop, so I don’t think he would play AA this slow.
Spade flush draw? Maybe, but unlikely, based on my evaluation of his style. He didn’t seem to be the player that would put it all in on a draw unless he had something else to go with it, like top pair.
97? Also seemed unlikely. Would a relatively tight, decent player call out of position with this hand? Maybe in position in a multi-way hand, but this seemed unlikely heads-up and out of position against the second biggest stack.
Set? This has to be it. Set of TT? Possibly, but the least likely of the three possible sets he might have, since a big stack would very likely raise PF UTG with TT. 66 or 88? Yes, this is definitely the way that he might play second or third set (although the mini-C/R was odd).
What else do I know? I start to study him. He’s shuffling a very small stack of 6 chips, and I notice that he’s visibly shaking. In fact, his hand is trembling so much that he can barely shuffle 6 chips! He’s either extremely nervous or excited. It occurs to me that if this otherwise calm, cautious player were to suddenly run a bluff against the only stack at the table that can ruin his otherwise profitable evening, he would be absolutely motionless if he were on a bluff. So, I’m nearly positive now that I am looking at the trembling hand of a TAG player with a monster flop against the only player at the table that can turn his big stack into a gigantic $2000+ stack.
And, then there’s the golden rule of NL -- don’t go broke with one pair. So, after much thought, I folded. He did not show. He left about an hour later, and despite the largest stack he appeared to be the tightest player at the table. So, he probably did have a set.
The remainder of the night went very well. I ran my stack back up to about $1800 after about 2 hours, and cashed out for over $1600 after three hours of play.
No Mercy for the Weak-Tight
The other players were fairly easy to read. One woman sitting two to my left, who is a regular with her husband in this poker room, should have just announced exactly what her hands were. She was on a shortish stack all night long and was basically only playing top-15 hands pre-flop. She was moaning and groaning all night long about not getting any cards. She declared that she either raises or folds PF, and she doesn’t even mess with questionable PF hands.
So, I knew exactly where she stood when she played a pot. On the rare occasion that she played, it went like this:
(1) She became completely silent, which meant a premium hand -- AA, KK, QQ.
(2) She would say to her friend, sitting immediately to my left, something like “OK, let’s see if this goes anywhere.” This meant she had two big cards like AK, AQ or a small pocket pair that was good only for set value.
(3) She would groan and raise, meaning she had a middle pocket pair like TT, 99 or 88, and she was just waiting to get bet off her hand when the inevitable overcard hit on the flop.
Unless she hit the flop or started with a premium hand, she would bail out. There was no bluffing to her game. Weak-tighties don’t get any easier to read than this. So, of course, I was the villain who ended her evening in misery...
I’m in late position and limp in with several others. Weak-Tight raises to $15 on the button with a stack of about $250, and she gives the “let’s see if this goes anywhere” comment to our mutual neighbor. So, I believe that she is in category #2 -- big cards or small pocket pair. (Its amazing that she would not notice that I’m paying attention to all of these comments...) Everyone calls.
Flop is Qh-8h-6d. Its checked to me and I bet $30. Weak-tight minraises to $60. Its folded back to me and I call. At this point, I’m 100% certain she has either AQ, 88 or 66.
Turn is (Qh-8h-6d)-4c -- an apparently harmless card. I give a little facial expression that says “Damn, that didn’t complete my flush,” and I check. She bets $75. I think for a bit, sigh like I’m on a draw and reluctantly go all in. She calls and turns over 66 for the set. I reveal 75o for the nut straight.
The river bricks out, and she stands up in complete disgust. “Why do people play that shit?” she asks, referring to my pitiful 75o. As an answer, I motion to the pile of chips that I’m stacking. After she leaves, several others declare that she blew the hand, as she should have raised more on the flop. They were absolutely right.
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