SpeakEasy

Poker is The Great Escape

2009-11-04T00:37:00.002-05:00

I am playing poker with renewed interest. Still playing at Harrahs when I can, and they occasionally have a $5-10 NLHE game now on the weekends.

I've found a weekly home game and its pretty good. More on this some other time.

I'm in a monthly tournament which is a satellite tournament for the the WSOP, and also pays cash like a regular tourney. And there is a fairly juicy cash game for the early bustouts. The best thing is that the tournament is essentially in my back yard -- its at the subdivision clubhouse which is about 50 yards from my property. The location alone is incredibly fortunate. How often do you get to walk to a poker tournament with 50 players?

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All of my blog links except Pauly have effectively been abandoned. Sad. They are deleted.

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I have never seen anyone hit with the deck like Darvin Moon. Holy shit.

The Public Face

2009-08-14T23:24:00.002-04:00

Translation of everything Michael Vick has said in public:

“Sorry? Oh, hell yeah I tell you I sorry! I say whatever you want, I be as remorseful as a muthafucka, as long as you show me da moneyz! Then after I get enough ‘fuck you’ money back in da bank, watch how I tell da man to suck it, beeyoch.”

Ocean's 11

2009-08-12T00:28:00.003-04:00

Last week, Thursday night to be exact, I played my first session in a California card room. We spent a week near San Diego on vacation, and the Ocean's 11 casino was 6 miles from where we stayed. I snuck away after a day-long series of exhausting activities with the kids, and put in a 4-5 hour poker session.

I played in the $5/5 game, with a $500-1500 buy-in. I sat with $1000. The game was populated by a mix of grinding regulars who possess no other discernable life-skills, a few machismo 20-something players, and a sprinkling of degenerate gamblers. The action was fueled by the punks and the gamblers, as you would expect, and it was easy to peg the other players within 4-5 orbits.

One 50-ish guy played the part of the gentlemanly drunkard poker expert. He was pounding red wine and habitually over-raising 6 of every 10 pots. He had the appearance of an accountant, but disclosed he lived in Del Mar. I could only assume that he essentially lived at the racetrack.

At one point, he slammed his wine long before the waitress returned, and consequenly tried to buy two glasses at once. When the waitress demurred ("I can only bring one glass to a customer at a time") I chimed in: "I'll have a glass of whatever he's drinking." When she brought our drinks, I donated mine to him. It was accepted with great thankfulness.

Does that make me an evil player? Soon thereafter, I made a critical mistake in a pot against him and moved to the main game down $500. Sigh.

I reloaded to $1000. I gained the appearance of a super-tight nit, mainly because I was getting absolute shit for cards. I started bluffing in opportune spots because they were giving me credit for big hands whenever I played. I limped UTG with junk, and after a $35 raise by Red Wine and a call by Surly Asian Kid, I popped it to $150. They fled in fear, acting like it was obvious what I held. Hehe.

The evening culminated in a pot involving Red Wine, an ugly woman who was bitching about how little Red Wine was tipping after he won small pot after small pot, and myself. I flopped the nuts with 56o on a 4-7-8 rainbow board. I checked in the BB, Ugly Woman led out, Red Wine raised, I re-raised, and Ugly Woman pushed for $1200!

Red Wine folded after some theatrics, and I called, assuming that a paired board would end my night with sadness. I showed and the table gasped, mainly because they were surprised to see that I played low unsuited cards in a pot raised pre-flop. The 4 paired on the turn, and I braced for the worst. The river was a J, and Ugly announced to the dealer, "You didn't help me." She mucked and grumbled out the door.

I assume she had either AA or 78. I'll never know.

I ended the night up over $1000, and decided that I like California card rooms.

Avoiding the Hit

2009-06-02T02:04:00.001-04:00

My daughter got whacked by a pitch a few weeks back. She plays fast-pitch softball, and this pitcher was particularly fast for the 9-10 year-old league. The count was full and the pitch came in high and tight. Amelia managed to turn her back a bit, but not get out of the way. The thwack of the ball hitting the meat of her back made the crowd gasp. After about a minute of quiet tears at the plate, tended by 2 coaches, she trotted down to first base and the game continued.

The hit left a fist-sized welt, with seam marks where the bruise formed.

A few days later, when we are playing catch and warming up for her pitching practice, I noticed that she is catching like she’s afraid of the ball. She’s doing that thing where she puts the glove where the ball is coming, but she sort of moves her body out of the way so that if the glove were not there, the ball would sail past and not hit her.

I knew that she was unconsciously trying to avoid being hit. It’s a perfectly reasonable response after being hit by a pitch, but I don’t want her to play afraid. So, I trieded this approach:

“Why are you moving away like that? Are you afraid it will hit you?” I asked.

“Yeah, maybe.”

“Do you trust yourself?” I asked.

“Huh?”

“Do you trust yourself? To you trust yourself to catch the ball?”

“Yeah, I guess so.”

“Good. Then you don’t need to move out of the way. You control whether you get hit by the ball. Trust yourself to put the glove in the right place, like you always do. Your glove will protect you from getting hit.”

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In recent cash-game sessions, I find that I am not trusting myself. I am not acting according to what my instincts tell me.

A typical example is where I am heads-up, the player had raised pre-flop, and is now leading out on the flop. My instincts tell me that this is a standard continuation bet and he did not connect with the flop, and he would fold to a healthy raise. But I also did not connect on the flop, and so I probably don’t have the best hand.

My instincts say “raise.” The logical part of my brain says, “Save your chips. You will find better opportunities later.” So then I fold. Or even worse, maybe I just call. The poker equivalent of sticking my glove out where the ball is coming, but moving my body out of the way to avoid getting hit and injured.

Trust yourself. Trust your reads. Act on your instincts. If this leads to a bad result, then pay more attention next time and follow your instincts. Your opponent will almost always give you enough information to make the correct decision.

Bball Brag

2009-04-04T23:35:00.002-04:00

I rock the basketball bracket. My round-by-round record:

Round 1 - 28-4
Round 2 - 14-2
Round 3 - 7-1
Round 4 - 2-2
Round 5 - 2-0
Final - UNC over Michigan State

The last time I won a pool outright was 1988 (in college I somehow picked Kansas to win it all in 1988 and nailed it). Of course this is the first time in over 2 decades that I DID NOT ENTER A POOL -- I was on vacation with family during Spring break. Figures.

The Sacrament of Confession

2009-03-06T18:47:00.003-05:00

Bless me, Father, for I have sinned. Its been over two months since my last post and these are my sins:

I have sucked at live poker. Really bad.

I have broke even at on-line poker. (But see Sharkscope graph for "Darvcus" on PokerStars. There is a pattern.)

I have not hosted any live games in my new basement, although the poker table got a workout with family in town over the Winter holidays. Endless drinks from the bar make for a lively game.

I have seemingly lost my ablity to read players at live poker. I have lost my feel for the game.

I have cursed at all the new on-line players invading the live poker scene, and their snarky appearances on TV. Why should I hate their good fortune? I guess its inevitable, right?

END CONFESSION

I am thankful to have a job and things are going well with my practice. My children do not feel the effects of the economic downswing and I strive to maintain this status. I am bringing in some new business and I continue to stay relatively busy. I am positioning myself to benefit when the economy picks back up.

I laugh at all the young guns invading the TV poker scene -- they have no life experience. I go to work day in and day out, and I sometimes question the energy that I must expend to stay on top of it all. But then I look back on what I have learned and experienced, and the example that I set for my children. And I smile and continue forward.

Sick stack

2008-12-30T15:34:00.008-05:00

After the Alamo Bowl which Missou won last night, I logged on to FullTilt to play a few SNGs. I opened the "Hanson Hangout" 6-max PLO table to witness what may be the best run in the history of on-line poker to date.

When I opened the table, Ziigmund had around $800,000 on the table, and everyone else was somewhere around $30K to $50K. Then I watched him run it up this --

Someone in the chat said he reloaded several times to $250K total, so his win at this point is around $1.3 million. I had two thoughts as I watched this:

My $30 SNGs seem to incredibly insignificant.

This gives me hope.

I've always subscribed to the view that if someone else can do it, then I can do it, too. But would I really have the balls to plunk down $250K at one table to run it up like this? Maybe, if I had this type of bankroll. But i dunno.

40

2008-12-28T09:39:00.002-05:00

Has it really been four months since my last post? Still, I won't apologize because I write this for myself to chronicle my poker. I hate poker blogs that apologize for the frequency of posts.

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I am now 40. Upon reaching the official date of middle age, I reflect that I remain a avid poker player and fan. I still play as often as I can, which is not often enough. I need to go to Vegas for a weekend and play in a few donkaments and easier cash games than I encounter in Missouri.

Since its been so long since my last post, it is time to dump all of the stuff I’ve written over the last few months but haven’t taken the time to actually publish.

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Punished for a Good Read

$2/5 NLHE game at Harrahs. Villain has about $500 and I have him covered. Villain is somewhat loose, not too aggressive, but I don’t have a lot of history with him and we have only been at the table together for maybe 30 minutes.

Villain limps UTG+2, and there are a few other callers. I have JJ and make it $25. Villain calls, the remainder fold.

Pot is about $60. Flop is 6d-7d-4c. Villain checks. I bet $50, Villain calls. My read is that he is on a draw of some sort, probably diamonds. His mannerisms in calling said to me, “Don’t try to push me around. I can’t be pushed off this hand so easily.” Like he was sort of offended by my bet.

Pot is now about $160. Turn is (6d-7d-4c)-Th. Villain checks. I bet $100. Villain calls. I get the same read as on the flop from his call.

Pot is about $360. River is (6d-7d-4c-Th)-9s. Villain quickly pushes for about $325. Given the action in this hand, this is a huge bet. My immediate reaction is that he is trying to bully me out of the pot. This cannot be a value bet. If he had the straight or a two-pair hand, he would bet much less to get a call out of me.

I think for while. He is staring at me. I get an extremely strong read that he does not want me to call. Its as if I can read his mind. I am reluctant given the size of the bet. The Golden Rule of No Limit is screaming at me: “Don’t go broke with one pair.” But my read is completely overriding the Golden Rule.

So I call, and wait for him to table his hand. He does not, and there is a long pause. The dealer tells him to show his hand. He very sheepishly says, “Pair of fours.” He turns over 8d-4d. I table my jacks. I’m congratulated for a very tough call. The dealer starts to collect the pot and push it my way.

The someone at the other end of the table says, “He has a straight.” Villain, the dealer, and the entire table initially missed that he had a straight, 10 to 6. Villain says, “Oh shit, sorry. I was only thinking about the flush. I just thought I missed my flush. I didn’t see the straight.”

So this fucker stumbles upon the winner without realizing it, runner-runner for the straight. This means that he really did think that he was bluffing at the river. My read was exactly right – he thought he was way behind and he did not want me to call. During a break in the action later, he apologized again for missing the straight, and I believe that he actually missed the straight and misread his hand on the river.

So, congratulations to me for making the right read, but I lose about $500. This hand, and specifically my river call for about $325, made the difference between having a winning and losing night. I later dug myself most of the way out of this hole during the remainder of the session, and ended up losing about $200 for the night.

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Trust Your Read

During this session my read was on. Not just during the game, but even as I sat down.

Something I always do when I arrive at a table is scope everyone out and make an initial read as to their ability and style. Hey, they’re doing the same about me, right?

So I have learned to trust my instincts on these matters. Whatever I feel about a player determines how I play against them, until proven otherwise. For example, someone may be trying to give off the appearance of being cocky and the table captain, but if I detect fear underlying this appearance then I will play against him knowing that his decisions are ultimately controlled by his fear rather than his cocky act.

So when I sat down at the Main Game and checked out the players, I said to myself about Seat 7: “Looks quiet, and knowledgeable but scared. Probably plays too tight and gives away PF hand strength based on the frequency of his raises. Looks like the kind of guy that could lose his stack with a one-pair hand.”

About 90 minutes later this hand comes up:

Seat 7 has around $600 and I have around $1000. I raise to $20 UTG in Seat 4 with 88. UTG+1 calls, Seat 7 raises to $65 total. SB calls, I call, UTG+1 calls.

Four players to the flop of K-8-4, all spades. SB and I check, UTG+1 checks. Seat 7 bets $80, SB folds. Time to announce that this is my pot. I raise to $250 total. UTG+1 folds. Seat 7 thinks for a bit and just calls.

Hmmm…now what does he have? PF I think that his range is AA-JJ, AK, maybe getting frisky on the re-raise with AQ, TT, 99. The call of my check-raise signals one of three things – (1) AK with or without the A-spades, (2) AA with or without the A-spades or (3) KK. But thinking further, would he just call my flop check-raise with KK? No, he would shove.

That leaves us with two hands – AA and AK – neither of which give him the flush yet, both of which I beat, and both of which fit my read of him the moment I sat down. He’s going broke with a one pair hand unless he hits the flush with the A-spades.

Turn is a non-spade low card, I push and he calls the remainder of his chips which is around $300. The river gives me the boat with 88844. He reveals AK (both red), confirming my read.

An now is a good time to reinforce my Golden Rule of No-Limit Hold ‘em: Don’t go broke with one pair.

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Mississippi Straddle Hand

THE SHORT VERSION for the reading impaired and impatient

$2/5 NLHE with a Mississippi Straddle (See explanation in long version). Villain is a 40-something, shade-wearing LAG, bordering on a tilting spew-monkey LAGtard based on recent hands.

I am UTG+1 with about $735, Villain has me covered. UTG folds, and I raise to $20 with JJ. But after the UTG fold and my action, dealer then announces that button straddled, so SB is first to act instead of UTG. I pull my bet back.

SB completes, BB folds, and I announce raise. Dealer will only let me raise to my original $20 raise, which is now a min-raise with the straddle in play. Villain is to my immediate left and calls. Button calls, SB calls. Four to the flop with a $80 pot.

Flop is 6c-7d-8d. SB checks. I bet $60. Villain calls, Button folds, and SB calls. Pot is now $265.

Turn is (6c-7d-8d)-Qc. SB checks. I check. Villain bets $225. SB folds.

THE LONG VERSION

This is a very interesting hand and a long one because there’s a lot that goes into my read. Are you willing to take the time think through this one with me?

The Game:

$2/5 NLHE, Harrahs in Kansas City. This is played with the “Mississippi Straddle” which is new to this card-room. Any one player besides BB and SB can straddle, which is double the BB. The player in latest position has the first option to straddle. Examples: If UTG and cut-off both want to straddle, CO has priority; if CO and Button both want to straddle, Button has priority. Pre-flop, the first player to act is the player immediately after the straddle. If button straddles, the SB must act first PF; if CO straddles, then button must act first, etc.

This option is relatively new, and both the dealer and players are getting used to it. Its not always used in every hand, so the dealer has to announce when someone is straddling to let the table know who should act first PF. Sometimes its goofed up by players and the dealer…

The Set-Up and My Table Image:

I have $735 to start this hand. I am at the main game, having played at the feeder table for only about 30 minutes. I’ve been up and down in this game, from a high of $1200 to a low of $400. I got back to over $700 about an hour earlier. I’ve been loose PF, but have hit absolutely nothing so my appearance is relatively tight for about the last hour.

The Hand:

I am UTG+1 with JJ. UTG folds and I raise to $20. Standard PF raise has been to $20 or $25 at this table.

Dealer then says, “Take that back, there is a straddle on the button.” I did not see the straddle and dealer did not call it out before UTG started the action. The SB also did not see the straddle. I simply acted after UTG folded. So, it turns out that UTG and I acted out of turn. I pull my bet back.

Now SB completes to $10, BB folds and the action is on me. Dealer says, “If you want to play this hand, your previous action is binding.” I do want to play the hand, and announce raise. Now I want to raise to $50 total. I ask for clarification about what the dealer meant by “previous action.” Dealer explains that my raise amount was also binding. So, according to the dealer, if I want to play the hand, I must to raise to exactly $20, which is now just a min-raise.

I contemplate calling the floor for a ruling, but decide that would probably be detrimental because the floor would either: (1) uphold the ruling, in which case my $20 raise stands and I’ve stopped the action and called unwanted attention to myself; or (2) overrule the dealer, in which case I would raise to a larger amount and spook everyone that didn’t already have a premium pair, scaring away all action. That’s what some players want to do with JJ pre-flop. But, I don’t like to play scared. So I let it go and just raise to $20.

Villain to my immediate left calls, and everyone else folds. So its SB, me, Villain and Button in the hand.

Flop is 6c-7d-8d. SB checks. I bet $60. Villain calls, Button folds, and SB calls. At this point I’m thinking that Villain and SB are probably on draws, or I could be up against a big hand, but I’m leaning more toward draws because a big hand would probably put in a healthy raise here given the coordinated nature of the board.. Pot is now $265.

Turn is (6c-7d-8d)-Qc. SB checks. I get the vibe that SB is scared of the board and is done with the hand. I check with the intention of check-raising Villain if he bets, or bailing out, depending upon my read of Villain’s action.

Villain bets $225. SB, as I thought, folds. Action is now on me. Time to size things up. I go into the tank for several minutes on this one.

The Villain:

I sat to the left of Villain at the feeder table and now he has position on me. He’s 40-ish and wearing silly oversized shades, dressed business casual – better dressed than most in the room. He thinks he’s a player. He’s been one of the loosest players at both tables. I can tell he’s been bluffing a lot, not afraid to mix it up. Bets at a lot of orphan pots. So going to the flop his range is wide open – he’ll call a standard PF raise with any two playable cards.

I have not seen him make any big calls when he is way behind. He did get unlucky within the last hour and got stacked for nearly $800, and he re-bought for the max $500. He’s quickly built that up to around $800 and now just has me covered. I think he may still be steaming a bit from the beat that he took, which is why he appears to be pushing the action even more right now.

My analysis:

First, the pot odds. The pot is $490 and its $225 for me to call. What if I pushed? I have about $665 in my stack, so if I pushed my raise to him would be about another $430 more in a $1155 pot. He would get better than 2 to 1 if he called my push, but I still think that this is enough of a raise that he would fold everything but a very strong hand.

What does he have? I can start by ruling out a big pocket pair. Given what happened PF with the straddle goof, he would certainly have re-raised with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and maybe also AQ and TT. Given how the PF action went, his call signals any pair 99 or lower and any two other playable cards, including all manner of suited connectors. So he doesn’t have a big PF hand, but he could have anything else.

Does he have a big hand, including a set of 888, 777, 666, QQQ or T9/54? I’m sure he does not have a set of queens. I think its unlikely that he flopped a set, because then he very likely would have raised my $60 bet on the flop. Either the SB or I could easily have had two diamonds on the flop and he would bet a set hard to drive out a flush draw. The same analysis applies to T9/54 for the flopped straight – he would raise that hand to protect on the flop.

What about a good but not very strong hand, like 87, 86, or 76 for two pair? Yes, these seem like real possibilities. He might call with these hands, see how the board develops on the flop and if another diamond comes.

What about AQ? Maybe, but I can’t see him floating the flop with SB yet to act with just two overcards, unless his design was to take the hand away later. Unless… he has AQ diamond. This would be a perfect hand to bet here on the turn because he now has top pair and the nut flush draw.

What about a no-pair flush draw, like AK diamonds? He likely would have raised PF with any AK hand, so I don’t see this holding.

What about a bluff? Yes, also a very real possibility, given his playing style and the fact that he might be somewhat steaming and also smelling weakness by SB and me. (I have to factor in SB somewhat in this hand even though he’s already folded, because Villain bet $225 with SB and me still to act on the turn.)

So, I settle on this range:

Big pair like AA, KK, QQ, JJ – not really possible.
AK – not really possible
Set of 888, 777, 666 or T9/65 for the straight – about 10%, because he probably would have raised on the flop
AQ-diamonds – 10%
Two pair with 87, 86 or 76 – 30%
Bluff – 50%

Overall, this hand smells most like a bluff because my flop bet plus a check on the turn looks weakish, and because SB really seemed to be on a draw. My CR push here would look most like a set of QQQ or AA/KK. He calls if he has a set or the straight, he probably calls with the flush draw (especially with AQ flush draw) and its 50/50 whether he calls or folds two pair because my push looks most like a set of QQQ.

Finally, is he capable of analyze this hand enough to lay down two-pair? I think so, based on his prior play.

So I pushed. What do you think of my reasoning and action?

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29 days

2008-08-24T16:56:00.004-04:00

We have now been in the new house for 4 weeks and 1 day. Moving is really tiring. We are 35% unpacked. Basement work continues. Life chugs on without regard to whether you're moving, I have discovered.

I will post more on my poker exploits in the near future.

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WHAT IS UP with the Giant Fucking Sunglasses that every woman wears these days? I can't be the only one that thinks Giant Sunglasses are completely silly, can I?

The first time I saw a pair of modern Giant Sunglasses on a woman, I thought to myself, "She must have gotten punched and she's covering up a black eye." Even now when I see a pair of Giant Sunglasses on a women (which is all the time and everywhere during the summer) the same thought runs through my head, even though I have now realized that this is the current fashion. The world is filled with women who have been punched in the face and are trying to hide it.

My wife gave in at some point, maybe last Autumn, and purchased a pair of Giant Sunglasses. I giggled. She knows what I think about them. I've even seen them on some men, which makes me really sad for these poor bastards.

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Scotty Nguyen's victory on ESPN last week was quite a poker show. I've played with guys like that, but not very much. We've all seen someone act like that in a non-poker setting. You're out with a group having drinks, and the liquid flows freely for a while. Then someone has too much, gets pissed off at something, and turns on the raging anger.

Everyone gets uncomfortable. It ends in a fight, or the group just sort of disperses into the night. Later, that guy either doesn't get invited, or everyone tip-toes carefully around him when the drinking starts again.

If you have one of these guys at the the poker table, I guess the goal is to get all of his chips before someone else does. If he gets lucky, oh well.

***********

Not having a poker "champ" at the end of the WSOP doesn't feel right. Yeah, its gonna build drama as the Main Event starts airing, but it still feels unfinished.

"I'm a Gambler"

2008-07-14T00:37:00.003-04:00

So immediately after my tilt-inducing fucked up hand last night, this curious exchange occurred with the guy on my immediate left.

I had just pulled another $500 buy-in from my pocket and put it on the table, and was dealt 22 in the SB. There was a Mississippi straddle to $10 on the button, so I was the first to act PF in the SB. I call the $10 straddle, and then guy on my right in the BB raises to $45. Its folded around to me and I call. Yeah, a bit tilty.

The flop is K-J-9. Another air ball, and I check. BB quickly checks. I just want him to bet so I can fold and regroup.

Turn is J, check-check. River is a small card, and we check-check again.

As I am turning over my deuces, I say, "I think I missed a bet." An honest statement, because his three checks would seem to indicate extreme weakness.

This guy turns over two queens, and says, "No, I wasn't going anywhere." Then, he launches into an odd speech.

"I wasn't going anywhere. I would have called if you bet. I'm a gambler. I don't want to take anyone's chips. You don't want me to take your chips, do you? Because I would have called. There's no way I would fold to a bet. That flop didn't scare me, and I would have called."

This goes on for a bit as he keeps pestering me with different variations of this question. "Do you want me to take your chips? Cause I'm a gambler, and I will if you want me to." He was yapping earlier, before this speech, so I don't think he's trying to encourage my tilt. He's not that clever. He's just one of these guys that boasts and yammers a lot. He's maybe 55, and sort of socially inept. However, I am in no mood for his bullshit.

Its like I am playing an odd logic game, and my options are:
A. Tell him to shut the fuck up (not really my character)
B. Ignore him (impossible, since he won't shut up on his own)
C. Reply with an honest response
D. Escalate the dispute, to induce his tilt

I selected "C. Honest response" and went this route: "Gee, and here I thought we were playing poker to take each others' chips."

Apparently, this is the wrong approach, and I have suddenly hit a nerve. The rant is just getting started

"I didn't want to take your chips," he continues. "I'm really a nice guy, but I'm a gambler. I just like friendly poker. If I don't like someone, I will go after them and take all their chips. You don't want to get on my bad side, cause I will take all your chips. I can't stand assholes at the table. That's what gets me going. And I can gamble. I've placed five-figure bets on the craps table. I gamble big, so you don't want to mess with me."

What the hell did I do to deserve this? This goes on as the hands continue. I have shifted into 'ignore mode' and now I am silent, to no avail. He continues. "Do you know how to play craps?" Yes, but I remain silent.

"See those craps tables over there?" He's now kneeling on his seat, twisting around and pointing. "I placed a ten thousand dollar odds bet when I was rolling for a six. Ten thousand dollars! I'm not afraid to gamble. I can gamble big, if that's what you want to do."

As a general rule, I stay quiet at the tables. I don't talk during hands. I will engage in friendly conversation between hands, mostly to gather information. But I am not at the poker table to make friends or for the social interaction. I am there to win and take everyone's chips, plain and simple.

So, I have absolutely no idea why The Gambler launched into me. As he is rambling, I replay the last few orbits to see if there is something I did to set him off. The only thing I can think about, however, is the horrible hand where I just donked off my $750 stack to Mega-Rock who flopped a set of kings.

I remain silent, and while The Gambler is still babbling I run QQ into AA and proceed to donate another buy-in to the Mega-Rock. I think I was on tilt, but I'm not really sure. My poker judgment was far too cloudy at that point to properly assess what was happening. I guess clouded judgment is my form of tilt.

I finally got to escape The Gambler. What a sad poker night.

Distractions

2008-07-13T01:28:00.003-04:00

We are closing on our new house on Tuesday. At that point, for the first time in my life, I will own two houses. Odd thought. We move in one week, and close on the sale of our current house at the end of August.

Things have been crazy busy in my non-poker life. House showings, offers, negotiations, packing, loan arrangements, moving companies, new house insurance, new carpet in the new house, basement improvements. And then there is work, which has been extremely busy. The economy and the legal work is in a slump -- except for me. Every project for nearly every client that I have is active. Meetings, contract negotiations, speeches, e-mail, phone conference calls, court documents, conferences.

Its a wonder that I manage to keep on top of everything. At least I think I am.

So I went to play some poker tonight. Poker remains my get-away from my non-poker life. Unfortunately, life distractions cause lack of focus at the table.

Early on, at the $2-5 NL feeder table, I ran my starting $500 stack up to about $1200. Good start, things going smoothly. By the time I got moved to the main game, I was around $800. Then I play this train-wreck of a hand:

I have about $750 at the start of this hand. I raise UTG with A8-hearts. Mega-rock re-raises to $60. Everyone else folds but me, and I just call.

Flop is Kh-Qs-8d. I check, and Mega-Rock checks. I think he missed.

Turn is (Kh-Qs-8d)-4h. Now I have a pair and a flush draw. I lead for $80. Mega-Rock raises to $300. He has about $300 more behind, very close to the rest of my stack. He just has me covered. I go into the tank and then emerge with this conclusion:

He has AK and is overplaying a one-pair hand, and he will lay down to pressure for the remainder of his stack. He re-raises PF, checked the flop because he had only one pair, and is scared I might have a set. At the feeder table, he gave the appearance of an extremely scared player in several occasions, and I pegged him as someone that could be bet off a hand.

So I push. He quickly calls, and I have that "Oh shit moment." I immediately know I made a bad read. I know what he has even before he shows -- a set of KKK or QQQ. I need a heart to win.

The river bricks out, no heart, and he shows a set of Kings. I have managed to cough up my entire stack on a third -pair, flush draw hand with one card to go when he was already pot-committed and had top set.

What the fuck was I doing? I should have lost only $60 in that hand, and not $750. Clearly I was unfocused and upon reflection I can't imagine ever playing this hand this poorly under normal circumstances.

Yuck.

Strangely, I think the aggravation of not being able to make it to Vegas this year is also causing me some sort of odd poker frustration that I have not experienced before. I am ready to take the next step in poker, but continue to dink around in the local $2-5 NL game, which is the best my little slice of the poker world has to offer. I see some of the players still in the WSOP Main Event, and I so want to take my shot.

Some day.

Missing Vegas

2008-07-04T07:29:00.003-04:00

I really don't understand how some of the pros can keep buying into so many WSOP events and not cashing. At all. I saw that Gavin Smith busted from Day 1-A of the Main Event. He said on the most recent episode of PokerRoad Radio that he has not cashed in a single event, and he's played in many of the 51 events. Financially and psychologically, how does someone accomplish this?

*******

I got away to Harrahs last night. I called in and got on the $2-5 NLHE list at 8:15pm, and I was #8. By 10:30pm I had moved up to #2 on the list, so I said "fuck it" and went home.

I was prepared to declare that poker was in a serious decline in the KC area, but the game lists were close to 20-deep last night.

*******

I've been sticking to a very strict on-line bankroll management plan. No more than than 5% of my total account for any single site on any table. I'm playing a very steady pace and things are starting to build back up. I'm keeping the bluffs and loose calls to a minimum, and it helps ease the variance. ABC poker can be somewhat boring, but its more profitable for me. Usually, I'm just happy to be playing, consideraing how busy life and work have been for me.

*******

I am currently reading Every Hand Revealed by Gus Hansen and Bigger Deal by Anthony Holden. I like Gus's post-flop thinking process. I like Holden's writing style, and I think this book is better than Big Deal. The problem that I had with Big Deal is that it was seriously dated by the modern poker boom. Reading about the world travels of a tournament player in the late 80's was just not exciting compared to the cash in play during the modern tournament era.

*******

I am seriously disappointed about not being able to take a Vegas trip during the WSOP this year. I have been following the WSOP news on a daily basis, and it makes me miss live play that much more. Even if I could not play in a tournament, I would love to teleport to the Rio and play in the cash games for two days. My goal is to make it to Vegas in June/July 2009, and possibly a trip early Winter this year if life will allow.

The State of Modern Pop Poker

2008-06-14T09:40:00.004-04:00

HISTORY WILL REVEAL that the height of the poker boom coincided with the last days of Shana Hiatt as the perky sideline commentator for the World Poker Tour. The decline of the modern poker era begins exactly with the announcement that Shana was leaving the WPT.

This is not to suggest that there is necessarily a causal relationship between these two events, although her departure may have played some role, however slight. Shana’s departure started the revolving door of beautiful but ignorant WPT sideline commentators, punctuated by the world’s worst interview question posed by replacement Courtney Friel as players were eliminated from a WPT final table: “So how did you feel when you busted out?”

Although hardcore poker players may have been reluctant to admit it, Season 4 of the WPT was a watershed event for poker in one primary respect – its when we all fully realized that the WPT format was really boring. The accelerated blind schedule in the final stages of a WPT tournament reduced the options of the world’s most highly skilled poker experts to a single action – push all-in or fold.

It was at this point that poker aficionados started skipping the weekly WPT broadcast in favor of logging on to their favorite internet poker site and playing a few more sit-n-goes before bedtime. We had all become educated regarding how to play final tables, and we could experience more real action in an on-line sit-n-go instead of watching six pudgy unknown dudes in shades and ball caps or beanies sit and try to act stoic while masking sheer televised terror, a la David Williams heads-up final table play at the WSOP 2004 Main Event. The WPT may have been on the tube in the background as viewers/players battled for their own personal final table victory on PokerStars, but they were no longer really paying attention to the WPT. Today, the WPT has moved to a second network, and has already started shopping for a third. The WPT’s days are numbered.

Along comes High Stakes Poker, televised cash game poker at its finest. Compared to the WPT, this show was exciting – real players it a cozy back-room lounge setting, exchanging barbs and playing for “cold hard cash,” as we were constantly reminded by AJ Benza. We watched Daniel Negreanu repeatedly call off fifteen WPT tournament buy-ins on the river as he explained with perfect accuracy how his flopped straight had been crushed by lucky a suckout. We could see he was beat, he know he was beat, he explained to the table and the audience how he was beat, and he still called. A player with crystal clear poker vision going completely blind in the heat of battle. This was poker excitement.

But then even High Stakes Poker outgrew its own skin. The stakes were raised as players bought in for a brain-melting $500,000 to $1 million, fueled by higher blinds and double-blind straddles. The stakes were clearly too high for certain participants, as they routinely started to “run it three times” in order to reduce variance and generate split pots.

High Stakes Poker bottomed out when Guy Laliberte graciously wrote off significant equity as he agreed to split a very large pot with David Benyamine to prevent a significant financial impact to Benyamine. Doyle Brunson summed up the hand by noting that it represented just another pot to Laliberte but a “lifetime” to Benyamine. Even if an exaggeration, we knew that this was painful for Benyamine.

These split pot bail-outs were contrary to the very spirit of poker. Poker is a zero-sum game of clear winners and losers. You make a bet, put your chips in the middle, and deal with the outcome. Someone wins the pot, and the rest lose. In America, we want touchdowns, home runs, grand slams and bust outs! We will not tolerate exciting foreplay followed by a limp-dicked fade-out.

So that brings us to the WSOP in 2008. We are nearly one year from the most boring final table in the history of the WSOP, where Jerry Yang hijacked the table by invoking the Almighty Himself to make the correct cards appear on the board. His empassioned appeals to God were almost drowned out by the wife of Lee Watkinson, who was likewise pleading to a higher power in favor of her husband over the small, undeserving, anonymous amateur.

The highlight of the 2008 WSOP appears to be poker players as gamblers, who are so bored with the game of poker that they require side action in the form of prop bets that exceed the value of the prize pools for which they compete. The world’s best players have sucked so much money out of the poker economy that the tournament stakes no longer bring the buzz that made the first season of the WPT so terribly exciting.

Harrahs and the other gaming corporations have co-opted the world of tournament poker because they remain true to the secret ingredient of gaming: lots of money in a casino means higher profits. By all means necessary, the casino corporations’ collective goal is to bring more money from the poker economy onto the casino property. There, creative gamblers will find ways to empty their pockets. Even the cream of the poker crop – none other than Phil Ivey – boasts about his million-dollar losses at the craps table in the form of shaky hand-held videos shot by Barry Greenstein. The new cool is not just to win at poker, but take your poker winnings and piss them away to the casino.

Harrahs has done a masterful job of ensuring maximum revenue from the WSOP. They run six tournaments simultaneously in multiple conference rooms to ensure that all tables are filled to capacity at all times. To ensure maximum excitement for the Series, Harrahs has managed, either by design or happenstance, to have created a fever among the top tier of the poker community for one magic talisman – bracelets!

The players have a seemingly unquenchable thirst for more bracelets. Who has the most bracelets? Who won the most bracelets last year? Who’s going to win the most bracelets this year? Who has the most prop bets for bracelets? Money is no longer the most important method of keeping score in poker. The poker world needs more bracelets!

To satisfy this new demand, Harrahs offers more tournaments, giving players even more opportunities to collect more bracelets – and allowing Harrahs to collect more juice. Players are bewildered by the flurry of overlapping tournaments, while Harrahs ensures that juice is being collected from every chair at every table in every room, every day and all day from the start of the tournament until the final bracelet is handed out. And, they even run added tournaments after the Main Event has started, to keep the busted players in a chair with the juice running. A player watching the final table of the WSOP represents lost potential revenue – put them in a seat and charge the juice one more time.

So we have been conditioned to love poker through television broadcasts, and to pay homage to the victors. Harrahs has finally figured out how to wring the most money from the poker community, and the players are willing, if unwitting, accomplices in their zeal to rack up tournament wins and then donate significant portions to the casino. The victors boast of their wins to the omnipresent poker media, who are eager to report chip counts, tournament results, and outrageous prop bets that keep the poker community entertained.

And we will still continue to play, regardless. Because underneath it all, we still love the game of poker, even if it has become too mainstream.

Math and other stuff

2008-06-12T00:44:00.003-04:00

WATCHING the Life of Ivey videos on PokerRoad, I realize something. There are lot of players that have substantial talent, but his extra strength seems to be the complete and absolute disregard for the real value of money. If you're a natural and you don't care about the money -- I mean really don't care -- then you can play without an ounce of fear. There are a lot of legendary gamblers, but Ivey seems to be in that extremely rare class that just does not care about the value of money even a little bit and is therefore devoid of any fear while playing at any level.

I've come close to this feeling on a few occasions, in my little corner of the poker world. When playing in the Ameristar Thursday night tournament (the only tournament in town worth playing), there have been a few nights where I was completely ambivalent about my outcome in the tournament. I had a medium to shortish stack in the middle stages, and the NL cash tables were bursting with the donks that had already busted out.

*************

POKER MEDIA PEOPLE, please stop interviewing Durrrr. He may be the latest poker prodigy, but he interviews poorly and has nothing to offer the audience.

*************

THE EGO OF POKER PLAYERS is starting to really show. Everyone has a writing blog or a video blog or a website or is being interviewed for their amazing and outlandish prop bets during the WSOP. For some its just a natural method of expression. For many others, its a pure ego trip to get their face on the tube and be watched by others.

*************

Listening to PokerRoad, I get the impression that a good number of players just sign up and play the WSOP tournaments, but don't regularly study the game or take the time to analyze their own game and improve, fill their leaks, etc. Its amazing how many buy-ins appear to be carelessly pissed away by careless play. Its as if some of the players are treating each tournament like just another boring day at the office rather than giving it the focus and attention needed to succeed on a continuous basis. Not everyone, but a lot of them.

*************

And now let's play -- Did I Play AK Like Donk?

Potentially big hand at the Main Table from this session, for which some math is required.

Villain plays with Team Yellow but has shown a propensity for overly tight play recently. I started with him at the Feeder Table and he was much more loose back then. I think his natural tendency is looser play, but has felt a bit ‘snake bit’ by this table. He has $435 and I have $1800. We are in the later part of my session and I am table boss.

Villain raises UTG to $35. Standard opening PF raise has been to $20 or $25 and I have been calling raises with a frustrating frequency to the other players. If Villain had a bigger stack I think a raise to $35 would signal a wider range of hands (including medium pocket pairs) but because he has recently lost several hundred and is visibly frustrated by his results at this table, my instinct is that he is protecting a genuinely big hand with the extra large raise.

One MP players calls. I have AK-spades in the CO an raise to $135. Its folded to Villain and he quickly pushes for about $300 over my raise. Squeezed caller in between us folds, and now its up to me.

Pot is 35 + 35 + 135 + 5 + 400 = $610. I am getting just over 2 to 1. What is his range of hands?

I think he has AA, KK, maybe QQ or JJ. I can put him on QQ or JJ only if I think he is extra frustrated and because he thinks I am bullying the table too much. His actions seem genuine, like he finally has the goods and is not afraid of the action. I do not see him doing this with AK, and absolutely not AQ or worse. He is clearly a cash game player, and is not treating this like a tournament.

So, I settle on 75% AA or KK and 25% QQ, possibly JJ. I fold, doing some quick calculations and deciding that the $300 call is better left in my stack against a close decision. Should I have called?

My equity against AA and KK is 77%/23%:
77% x -$300 = -$231
23% x $610 = $140
Total EV against AA and KK is -$91

My equity against QQ and JJ is 54%/46%:
54% x -$300 = -$162
46% x $610 = $280
Total EV against QQ and JJ is $118

75% x -$91 = -$68
25% x $118 = $30

Total EV against his weighted hand range is -$38. Yeah, I can find better situations for my chips.

This would become a +$18 EV if I think there is an equal chance he has AA, KK, QQ and JJ. Still not very good for my $300 call, compared to how I have been running this table.. I should be able to turn $300 into $500 based on how this table has been treating me.

I folded face down and said I had JJ, thinking that this lie would make it more likely for him to disclose his real hand if it beat mine. (The psychology of this lie is that he would have less inclination to lie that he had a bigger hand then he really did.) Villain did not show, but later said that he had QQ and did not want a call. Over the course of the next few hands, several other players at the table said they think he was lying about QQ and thought he had AA or KK, supporting my evaluation of the hand.

If I knew that he actually had exactly QQ, the EV of my call is $118, which is a clear call even considering how I was dominating this table. But I think he was lying, and not just as a rationalization of my calculations.

I Play Live

2008-06-08T23:54:00.005-04:00

As sad as my on-line results have been, my live play continues in the opposite direction.

Harrahs $2/5 NLHE last night, bought in for $500, cashed out for $2209. Sweet night. I had a dead-on read on every player at the table at all times. I can just feel where players are at when I am focused. I made three of my best reads ever for river calls with weakish hands.

As I was driving home I realized something -- I did not lose even one hand at showdown all night. I bailed before the river, bluffed before the river or won at showdown. That is a receipe for running a table.

I so wish I could jump on a plane and hit the Rio cash games right now.

***********

As for on-line play, I've found a game that is profitable -- 2-7 triple draw. Its actually a fun game, and not filled with sharks. I'm not sure who plays this, but the majority are weak players. I would assume anyone spending a significant amount of time playing this would know what they're doing, but I guess not.

This game seems intuitive for me, and I ran some calculations on Friday to get a better grasp on the math of the game. I don't have the math completely figured out, but I think I've got a lot of it. I reviewed this section in Super/System and I will read some more.

Game Over

2008-06-03T00:26:00.003-04:00

I am ready to formally announce that the on-line games have gone bad. Real bad.

Two years ago, every low level SNG (up to around the $20 level, and maybe higher) was composed of maybe 5 donks, 2-3 decent to good players and 1-2 solid players. Usually someone, and maybe more than 1 player, was gone after 5-10 hands. After 20 hands, you might have lost 2 or 3. The 50-100 of the 75-150 level was the money bubble.

I've been playing in $30 to $50 SNGs, and I've hit a cold streak. So, like a good bankroll manager, I dropped down to the $20 SNGs. I am in one right now and every player is still in the game at the 60/120 level. Everyone is playing a solid, basic, winning SNG strategy.

And now we're at the 80/160 level with 7 players left and they are all playing solid pushbot strategy. There are no clear donks.

The UIGEA has eviscerated on-line poker.

Can You Fleece a Donkey?

2008-05-31T23:23:00.004-04:00

What the hell is with all the "poker training" sites? Is it just this obvious to anyone else but me?

Sample Advertizament

1. I've won a lot of money playing on-line poker!
Yeah, it was back before the UIGEA. And yeah, the games have gotten a lot harder to make money on-line. In fact, things are drying up for me, just like everyone else. But wait ... just listen to this!

2. I can teach you to play poker! I can show you exactly how I used to make a lot of money playing on-line poker. Just pay me $100 per hour (which, by the way, was my former win/100BB before the UIGEA).

3. You can win lots of money like me! Assuming the UIGEA is overturned and the fish can find a way to deposit, just like back when I used to win a lot. Go get'em!

Dear Heaven

2008-05-23T23:48:00.004-04:00

Yeah, this rocks. You know who it is, but I'll bet you haven't hard it yet...

Dear Heaven

And then check out "Thought You Knew" ...

An American Idol

2008-05-17T20:09:00.005-04:00

David Cook came home to Blue Springs on Friday and there was a huge parade and rally at his high school, Blue Springs South. My wife got tickets and we took the kids.

After the parade, he and his family processed into the high school football and track stadium. The show was on a stage in the middle of the field at about the 10 yard line, The stands on both sides were packed, and there were thousands more standing along the sides and around the field. Only a few hundred lucky people got onto the field. We did not get a seat (not by a long shot) but I managed to find a nice little spot at a location that was immediately to the right of the stage (the very furthest point from the entrance), with nothing between us and a clear view of the stage but a chain-link fence just outside the running track.

He ended up sitting on the right side of the stage, so we were among the fortunate few to have an unobstructed and straight view of him, although at a significant distance. As I later told my wife, aside from Roman (my son) this was the most pictures that I have ever taken of a guy.

At the start of the show he said a few words, and it was clearly an extremely emotional moment. As he described it, he has been living in his little "American Idol bubble" and now he comes home to 10,000 people packed into his high school stadium to honor his achievement.

Immediately when he sat down, they starting shooting fireworks off behind the stage. The pictures below were taken just as he stood back up, very likely choking back tears and taking in the moment.

We have a neat connection to this event. One of Amelia's (my daughter) best friends at school is named Aylish. David Cook is Aylish's uncle. Aylish and her mom were part of the family entourage and were on the stage, but on the other side and not visible except partially in a few of my pictures. I ran into them on Saturday and she said that they "partied like rock stars" until after 1am that night/morning with David and family.

It was a very cool experience.

Iron Man

2008-05-04T11:18:00.005-04:00

Still playing poker, and thinking about it when I’m not playing. I’ve played a few live sessions since my last blog post, and I also finally won the Thursday night Chiptalk tournament. Here is my most recent live $2/5 NL session at Harrahs, max $500 buy-in.

My worst hand of the night, at the feeder table –

Folded to me in MP and I raise to $20 with KJ-not-suited. Button calls. He’s a quiet, somewhat creepy but observant and solid old guy. He might be an accountant. I have some history with this guy, and some of the biggest pots I’ve ever played in KC have been against him. Overall, he’s gotten the best of me several times, which I can’t say for very many players in KC.

Before the flop, the floor calls my name for the main table.

Flop is K-7-4, all clubs. I have no club. I bet $30, and button calls. I think he’s drawing to the flush. Turn is a low card, non-club. I bet $80, and he raises to $280 total. He only has about $55 behind, so he is effectively all-in. This bet just screams flush draw, and I’m positive he has the A-clubs. But does be have another club in his hand?

Time to size him up. His left hand is holding his cards, the way players will hold their cards maybe ½ inch off the table. His right hand is covering his mouth. He is absolutely motionless. I pull two $100 stacks from their moorings, to see if I get any reaction. He remains frozen, like a scared rabbit hunkered down before it flees. He is staring at a point on the table between me and the community cards. All signs point to a bluff, or rather a semi-bluff. I don’t think he wants a call. I don’t think he has AK, which means that I’m ahead. And, I'm about to move to the main game -- which somehow played a minor role in my decision, but I'm not sure how or why.

So I push, and he promptly calls his few remaining chips and shows me AQ-clubs. Bad read by me. I really believe that he knew I was trying to get a read on him, and he was intentionally giving off weak tells – hand on the mouth, motionless, afraid of eye contact. Fuckin’ sneaky old bastard.

My two best hands of the night, now at the main table –

1. Button is somewhat of an action player. As the cards are dealt, but before looking, he says “I feel a button raise coming on.” Folded to me in MP, I raise to $20 with A7-diamonds. Button calls, SB folds, BB calls. I say to Button, “You were supposed to re-raise.”

Flop is A-J-7 rainbow, giving me two pair. BB checks, I lead out for $45, button calls, BB folds. Turn is (A-J-7)-5, and I bet $90, button calls. River is (A-J-7-5)-7. I think for a long time, like I might be unsure what to do here, trying to give the “I missed my draw” signal. Or maybe the “Are my kings any good?” vibe. I’m actually just trying to figure out the maximum that he will call. Then I bet $160. Button quickly calls, and shows AQ after I reveal my boat.

He acts aggravated, and says “Nice catch. Good raise with A7.” I’m not sure if he’s serious or sarcastic, and whether he is aggravated with himself or me. After giving me $315, he donked off his remaining $400 or so after a couple more orbits. I’m pretty sure my hand tilted him.

2. Lots of limpers to me on the button, and I limp with 47-diamonds. SB and BB check. Flop is 3d-Kc-6d. Checked to me, and I bet $20. Its folded to MP guy, who just sat down a few hands ago and is the only player wearing shades. He raises to $50 total, and has about $370 more behind. I have him covered. Its folded to me, and I raise $200 more, which should signal that we are playing for his whole stack. I’m pretty sure he has a high king, probably not AK or he would have raised PF.

He pushes, and I quickly call $170 more. Turn and river both bring help, as the final board reads 3d-Kc-6d-2d-5c, completing my straight and flush. My opponent is shocked and dismayed when I table my hand. Everyone else is shocked to see 47s.

Mr. Shades slinks away, claiming that he called "with a high king." Like KQ?! One of the players at his end of the table says, "If he pushed with KQ or worse, he deserves to lose." I guess I would have to agree there. But then again, he didn't know too much about how I play. And, he was technically ahead -- but all in all risking your whole stack with top pair, non-nut kicker cleary breaks my Golden Rule of No Limit Hold 'Em -- Don't go broke with one pair.

I get lots of respect for the remainder of the session. My reputation is now that I could have any two cards and I don’t appear to be bluffing too often. Which, of course, opens the door to lots of bluffing opportunities at small and medium orphan pots. Showing down some goofy strong hands really frightens skittish players.

I rack up for $1475 and head home.

In The Long Run

2008-03-19T01:03:00.004-04:00

I read the Antonius article in the most recent CardPlayer issue, noting with particular interest where he called out Doyle Brunson to any game for any stakes at any time. Doyle!

Then I read the most recent entry in Doyle's blog last night where he accepts the challenge. The interest part is where he says "I’m willing to commit to for at least a seven figure match." I can only assume that this statement means that the match could also possibly involve both players putting up eight figures. Yikes. I just think its cool that Doyle has a blog. It certainly sounds like his voice -- I can hear the folksy, easy-going southern drawl in my head as I read his blog.

********

Dr. Pauly devoted an entire blog post to my all-time favorite hand, which is T8s, and specifially T8-spades if I can select a suit. Cool.

********

I read poker blogs much more than I write in my own. I try to learn what I can from the mistakes and discussions of others. There are not to many that consistently stick to the meat of the game -- strategy, hand analysis and review of their own play.

One thing that I have noticed to be almost a universal truth about the way poker players think. In the early and middle stages of a player's career arc, there is intense focus on hand analysis and learning game strategy to reach a desired skill level. Then when the player believes they have reached that skill level, they slow down or entirely stop the strategy discussion and just play, and their focus turns to other aspects of the game.

This is when many players get beat -- they focus more on bad beats, variance, the behavior of other players, and generally stop learning the game. But I have noticed that the very best players acknowledge that they are always learning. They learn from each mistake in each session.

When you read poker blogs or maybe the poker forums, you can quickly tell where players are at in their career arc and which players will continue to learn the game.

********

I went skiing today in Utah. Actually, the rest of the family went skiing, and I went snowboarding for the first time. Learning to snowboard involves a lot of falling down. I already know that tomorrow morning I will feel like I have been beat up by secret police during the night.

********

While on vacation, I still get a bit of poker in at night after everyone else crashes. Its still my refuge from the world, no matter whether I am at home or on vacation. Its my thing that I do for myself and that I don't have to explain to anyone else, except those that are interested in listenng. My charm at the on-line NLHE cash games seems to have returned. Despite my prior whining about the downfall of on-line cash games -- of maybe because of that? -- I have rediscovered a winning game. I think I know why.

I saw the movie "No Country for Old Men" a few days ago. I will save a full discussion of that movie for another time, but the movie had an interesting effect on my mindset toward life, and also poker. Only the poker part is relevant to this blog. It made me realize that life is very long and that over the course of my life, God willing, I will play hundreds of thousands and maybe even millions of poker hands. I will be playing this game for the rest of my life. I already know this to be true.

Consequently, I am in no rush for immediate victory. I know that my "long run" will be as long of a run as I can put in -- the rest of my life. I have a newfound contentment to play at a steady, even pace and patiently wait for the good starting hands and the best board cards to get my money in the pot. This is my style. Its wonderful when you can dig deep into a work of art -- a book, a movie, whatever catches your interest -- and pull out meaning that changes your life. These sort of events don't happen to often, and you have to pay attention or they will slip out of view like a ghost.

Poker is Easy

2008-03-10T23:10:00.002-04:00

First hand of a new SNG –

PokerStars Game Tournament Level I (10/20)
Seat 1: (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: Darvcus (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: posts small blind 10
Seat 3: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Darvcus [Ad Ac]
folds
folds
Seat 6: raises 20 to 40
Darvcus: raises 80 to 120
folds
folds
folds
Seat 2: raises 80 to 200
folds
Seat 6: calls 160
Darvcus: raises 460 to 660
Seat 2: calls 460
Seat 6: calls 460
*** FLOP *** [Ah As Qc]
Seat 2: bets 840 and is all-in
Seat 6: folds
Darvcus: calls 840 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Ah As Qc] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [Ah As Qc Qh] [Kh]
Seat 6 said, "nh"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Seat 2: shows [7d 7s] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
Darvcus: shows [Ad Ac] (four of a kind, Aces)Darvcus collected 3680 from pot

On Bluffing

2008-03-06T19:53:00.002-05:00

Gus Hansen has some recent blog post about bluffing here. Some interesting thoughts by him that are worth consideration:

“Bluffing is a key component to a winning poker strategy, and therefore I am constantly trying to add more and more bluffing features into my game. Some might think that I already bluff too much, but truth be told I still need to work on my bluffing frequencies in some specific situations.The fact that trickery and deception play a significantly larger role in short-handed poker makes the matter even more imminent. In heads-up play you are constantly on the move, and being able to pull the trigger in all sorts of situations with or without a hand is of utmost importance.”

“Notice that if I don't have any experience playing 'live' against someone, I always put them in a much tighter category than where I would be found. Against most opponents in big buy-in tournaments, a decent-sized bet on the turn will be enough to take out hands like AQ and AJ and maybe even 88 as well.”

“From past experiences I know for a fact, that each and every tournament player, I have encountered out there, cherish their chips to such a degree that bluffing should be upgraded from an occasional occurrence to a major weapon at your disposal in every hand you play.”

I don’t know if he is just advertising, but I would wager not. Against the right players, its very important to keep these thoughts in mind. Against the right players.

Call of the Day

2008-03-05T00:38:00.003-05:00

Occasionally, rarely, I can make a read on-line.

PokerStars Tournament $25+$2 WSOP Steps
Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50)
9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 3 (1270 in chips)
Seat 8 (1445 in chips)
Seat 9: Darvcus (1715 in chips)
Darvcus: posts small blind 25
Seat 1 posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Darvcus [Ac 9c]
folds
Seat 3 raises 100 to 150
folds
folds
folds
Seat 8 calls 150
Darvcus: calls 125
folds
*** FLOP *** [3c 4d 9h]
Darvcus: checks
Seat 3 bets 150
Seat 8 folds
Darvcus: raises 300 to 450
Seat 3 raises 670 to 1120 and is all-in
Darvcus: calls 670
*** TURN *** [3c 4d 9h] [As]
*** RIVER *** [3c 4d 9h As] [2s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Darvcus: shows [Ac 9c] (two pair, Aces and Nines)
Seat 3 shows [Kh Qh] (high card Ace)
Darvcus collected 2740 from pot

My C/R was to test whether I was ahead. His push should signal that I am not. He could very easily have something like JJ here, or any overpair. No real logic to the decision, and this was not a math based call. I could just feel it. This often happens live for me, but so rarely on-line.

American Beauty

2008-03-04T01:30:00.002-05:00

Quite by accident I have watched most of the movie American Beauty twice in the last couple of weeks. Upon the second viewing, I am struck by the symbolism in the movie.

I liked this movie when I originally saw it in the theaters, but it did not strike the chord with me then as it does now. I do not exactly relate to Lester Burnham, but I understand what brought him down in his world. I have seen in others how the stress of life’s routines can create what happened to his family.

There is significant use of color in the movie, and a few other symbols. My take on their meaning:

Red = The unobtainable for Lester

Red is the most significant color in the movie. Lester’s front door is red. Lester’s wife, Carolyn, meticulously grows red roses. Before Carolyn starts to clean the house that she is trying to to sell, she takes off her dress and reveals a bright red slip, in which she runs around the house in a frantic cleaning spree. Lester’s object of desire, Angela, is viewed alternately covered by, showered by, and bathing in a sea of red rose petals.

Lester’s first encounter with Angela at the basketball game concludes with Angela opening her sweater to a burst of red rose petals. Lester sees Angela on his bedroom ceiling awash in red rose petals. In a dream, Lester wanders into the bathroom to find Angela in a bathtub filled with water and red rose petals. Lester’s root-beer encounter with Angela in his kitchen results in him urping up a red rose petal. In the final scenes of the movie, where Lester and Angela almost consummate their lustful relationship, a vase of red roses is in the background behind Angela in nearly every shot. The dancing white grocery bag that symbolizes the ultimate beauty for Ricky Fitz appears before bright red doors; Lester sees this scene while delivering his eulogy at the end of the movie. Red symbolizes the things that Lester wants but cannot or will not have in life.

Blue = sexuality

Jim and Jim, the gay couple that live on Robin Hood Trail with whom Lester jogs, both wear blue. The wife of the Real Estate King wears blue at the party. The Real Estate King wears a blue suit when he seduces Jane at their lunch. When Jane strips in her bedroom for Ricky while he is filming her from his bedroom next door, the curtains framing Jane’s figure are blue.

When Ricky’s father, Frank, watches Ricky and Lester through the window of Lester’s garage, when Frank mistakenly believes that Ricky is going down on Lester, Lester is reclining in a large, round chair with blue cushions. Lester and Carolyn almost get it on their blue and white striped couch in their living room, before Carolyn warns Lester that he’s about to spill beer on the couch and ruins the moment.

Black & white = normalcy

Ricky wears only black and white clothes. Ricky’s room consists of black and white, mostly video tapes lining the shelves. Ricky wears a tuxedo with a white jacket for his catering work at the party. Jane is always dressed in black and white. Her lipstick is some dark, colorless shade. Ricky films things that are white – the dead dove, the dancing white grocery sack. By the end of the movie, despite their troubles, Jane and Ricky are the normal people who survive their twisted family lives and presumably escape to New York to start their new life.

Gun = release and salvation

The Real Estate King tells Jane that he relieves stress by shooting a gun. Jane takes up handgun target practice to relieve the stress in her life. She is most happy after shooting a gun. Frank has a handgun collection that is housed in locked cabinets. Ricky opens a cabinet with a duplicate key to show Jane the Nazi serving plate. His access to an item stored with the gun collection is a way of connecting with Jane, to later escape his world with Jane.

At the end of the movie, Carolyn is walking up to the house in the rain clutching a gun, energized by her self-help tapes and ready to kill Lester. Frank kills Lester at the end of the movie with a handgun, which saves Lester from his depressing world. Lester’s red blood splatters on a pure white wall when he is shot in the head.

Reality Check

2008-03-04T01:15:00.002-05:00

“Play is the work of children.” My children work very hard, at times! If this statement is also true for adults playing poker, then I can see why so many teens and 20-somethings are enamored with the idea of playing poker for a living. They think that work could be just a fun game. I do not want to play poker for a living. But, poker needs to remain fun. Which leads me to the reality check…

Its good to be brutally honest with yourself as a poker player. I am way past whining about bad beats and variance. Its just part of the game. But after a while, its hard to ignore trends, even if you are immune to and account for the variance. So, here is how my current game stacks up –

Live Cash Games – Love it, and I've had much success. I’ve won a lot in live cash games. Both in Vegas and locally. I’ve never ventured beyond $5/10 NLHE, but I’ve had success at all levels up to this level. I’ve worked hard on my reads and my feel of the game, and its what I like the most. For me, the most satisfying aspect of playing poker is sitting at a table, shutting out the real world for the entire session, tuning in to the vibe of the table, using all the math that I have learned without consciously thinking about the calculations, and then making good reads. When I am in the zone and making good decisions based on my read, this is ultimately why I play the game.

Live tournaments – Decent results, some nice cashes, but I haven’t really played that many tournaments. The luck factor is higher than in cash games, which is why I like deeped-stacked cash games the best. I would play more tournaments if I had the time, but for now I will have to settle for the annual Vegas pilgrimage and the occasional Ameristar tournament. Live tournaments are fun because they are an event, even if the variance is high, which is why I still like to play them.

On-line tournaments – Very high variance. I don’t have the time or take the time to play many on-line tournaments except the Thursday night Chiptalk tournament. I’m relatively satisfied with my ITM% over several years in the Chiptalk series, but I still have yet to win the damn thing. I don’t play the Chiptalk tournament as much due to work and life commitments.

On-line SNGs – This is clearly my strongest on-line game. I have consistently won SNGs up to the $50 level. Sharkscope.com data keeps track better than I do (“Darvcus” on PokerStars). I like the strategy that I have developed over the years for SNGs, and there are still a good number of players that make easily avoidable mistakes in SNGs up to the $30 level. I’ve had much more success at SNGs than on-line cash games.

On-Line Cash Games – After the UIGEA, I am a losing on-line cash game player. Not huge losses, I just don’t have an edge in these games any more. Back during the good PartyPoker days, I was a big winner in the cash games. I guess everyone was (except for the contributors, of course). Its how I built my on-line bankroll from $200 into the thousands. But after the UIGEA, I think the cash games became extremely hard. I sense that a lot of the grinders have learned to live at the low stakes tables, and just play a lot of tables to minimize variance. Last week, I sat at two tables where one player on each table was taking an incredibly long time with each decision. I did a search on each, and they were both playing 15+ tables! Crazy.

Very recently, I’ve come to realize something else about on-line cash games: I need more time to make my decisions. I don’t need any more time that is allotted to make decisions in SNGs, but I routinely need more time than allowed in cash games. So, my decisions are often hurried. Not all the time, and not by a significant amount, but still often hurried. Routinely feeling slightly hurried can make a huge difference between making good laydowns and horrible, money-losing calls. Make this mistake a few times each session, and you have a recipe for –EV results.

I’m not saying this as an excuse for my poor on-line cash game performance, but its just a reality of my game. Admitting your weakness is a strength, right? Feeling hurried, coupled with limited reading abilities at the on-line cash tables, plus playing at night when I am generally tired, has resulted in losses. I don’t have an edge in on-line cash games any more. I’m sure this will change when the law changes at some point in the future, when donators can again easily make deposits, but until these floodgates re-open, I’m going to stick to on-line SNGs for a positive return.

Iowa

2008-02-27T01:20:00.005-05:00

I traveled to Iowa this last weekend to attend to family-related business. My home state. I took the opportunity to squeeze in some poker at a few locations around the state.

Meskwaki Bingo Casino Hotel

First, there was Meskwaki near Tama, Iowa on Friday night. Smallish poker room. Biggest game was a $1/2 NLHE game with a max $200 buy-in. Painful. I sat with several reloads, and needed one reload after my stack dwindled.

I used this as an exercise to see how quickly I could get a read on the players at the table. I’ve decided that if I am paying close attention, I should be able to get a decent read on everyone in about four orbits. This is necessary when you only have time for short sessions.

Initial conclusion: Iowa players are easy to read. Their problem is that, to a man, they play cash games like they would play a tournament. They give away their PF hand strength, and are completely unable to lay down a big pocket pair. Strategy: see a lot of flops with any playable NL hand, wait to flop something that can beat one pair, and then blast away. This basic strategy proved successful. No stack pics because I could not get cell phone coverage at this casino, so I didn’t take my phone to the table.

One astounding fact about the Meskwaki Bingo Casino Hotel (besides a name that is too long) – they don’t serve alcohol! A casino that does not serve alcohol – what the hell is up with that?! It made for some tame poker, and I bet it seriously huts the casino’s bottom line, too.

Final tally: +$200.

Riverside Casino

Next up was $2/5 NLHE at the Riverside Casino on Saturday afternoon. Nice casino, and they do serve alcohol. I did not partake, but I did take one player’s money in about a 2 hour session.

I played two odd hands against a dude to my right. Odd because of the betting that occurred. He was 40-ish, from Cedar Rapids, and was talking up a storm about an upcoming trip to the Bellagio to play $30-60 limit HE. Claimed to like limit better than NL. Not much of a tournament player. Seemed to know what he was doing and willing to mix it up with a wide range of hands.

First significant hand. I sat down about 20 minutes earlier and I have just over $300. Villain has me covered –

Limped to me on the button, I call with 99. Pot is $25.
Flop is 9h-8s-7s. Checked to Villain who bets $25. I raise to $75. Folded to Villain who calls.

Turn is (9h-8s-7s)-3s. Villain bets $100. I am concerned about the flush and just call. Pot is $375.

River is (9h-8s-7s-3s)-Tc. Villain check, and I happily check behind on a very scary board. He shows A8-hearts (??) and I win with a set of 999. My stack looked like this:
Afterwards, he says: “I put you on an overpair.” I presume this means that he thought he could have bet me off the hand on the turn. But how would I have an overpair to this flop on the button without raising PF? Whatever.

Second significant hand. I have maybe $675 and Villain has around $600. Several limpers to me on the button and I have JJ. I raise to $25, and everyone folds except Villain. We are heads up to a flop of –

Js-Tc-8c. Villain checks and I bet $35. This is intentionally a smallish bet to disguise my hand. Villain now min-raises to $70. Odd. I raise to $170 total. Villain quickly calls, so he has something here. Pot is about $210.

Turn is (Js-Tc-8c)-6c. Villain bets $150. Again I am concerned about the flush, but something felt like he did not have the flush. I call. Pot is about $510.

River is (Js-Tc-8c-6c)-Ts. Excellent. Villain checks. I have around $375 left and bet $200. I wanted to bet the max that he would call, while making sure that he did not fold. He quickly called. I win a $900+ pot and he mucks. My stack then looked like this:

Villain later claimed that he also had a boat – 999TT. He really sounded like he was telling the truth. But if so, I have no idea why he did not bet the river and instead check-called.

Poker is alive and well in Iowa, and from my limited experience there, the players are not very good.

Any Given Session

2008-02-21T01:13:00.002-05:00

Every poker session falls into one of four categories:

1. You played like shit and you lost. You feel bad.

2. You played like shit but got lucky and won. You might feel bad about how you played, if you care about your skill in the game, but you'll keep the winnings anyway.

3. You played good but got unlucky and lost. You might feel satisfied about your play, but losing still sucks.

4. You played well and won. This is one of the main reasons I keep playing poker. Playing well and winning is extremely satisfying, if you're a real poker player.

Discovery

2008-02-17T19:57:00.003-05:00

Remember back in the hey-day of on-line poker when you could sit at the low-limit NLHE games on PartyPoker and just rake in the money? Double your buy-in after about 10-15 minutes per table because your victims routinely paid off with weak hands?

No one does this any more because everyone had read Harrington on Hold 'Em and watched High Stakes Poker and plays NLHE 12 hours per day at all levels.

Well, I've discovered the modern-day Party-Poker NLHE circa 2004: low-limit Omaha high.

I've finally figured out Omaha to play straight-forward ABC strategy. And its like minting money. Its slow, but its a sure thing. Weak players routinely pay off with second best hands, just like the old NLHE PartyPoker days.

Epiphany

2008-02-12T23:43:00.004-05:00

I have a new favorite local casino poker game. For about a year, the only casino poker cash game I have played is the Ameristar $1/$2 NLHE game, which is the biggest NL game they have (sad). I play this mainly because they have the 75% rule – you can sit down with 75% of the biggest stack at the table. This sort of compensates for the antiquated Missouri “loss limit” rule, where you can only purchase $500 in chips every two hours. To my knowledge, no other state in the nation follows this silly rule.

But I played in the Harrahs $2/$5 NL game last Saturday, which does not have the 75% rule. This is a better game in terms of player mix and structure. Although the stacks are nearly the same size as the Ameristar game, the slightly bigger blinds make the game play bigger. This I like. I sat down with $500 and cashed out for over $1600:

I was in seat 10. I had to go extra tall with the stacks rather than wide, because the dealers had trouble keeping their elbows off my stack. Shift to the right, go high. Being a chip snob, stack configuration is important to me.

I went into the game extremely focused, and had a read on nearly every player for the entire session. I was focused enough to plan ahead in each hand – figure out what I would do on future streets in a hand based on player styles, stack sizes and my read at the very start of the hand.

By the end of the session, something occurred to me. This seems to be a fundamental truth about my live cash games:

My best cash game sessions happen when I lose the fewest number of showdowns.

At first, this may seem like a fairly unremarkable statement. Of course you do better when you win more showdowns. But that’s not it. My very best sessions are when I lose the fewest showdowns, not necessarily win the most showdowns.

This can be the result of several factors that mark a good cash game session:
--Winning only a few pots early on, but big pots.
--Folding before the river when you are behind.
--Playing tight early and building up a solid image.
--Later in the session, winning lots of smallish pots before the showdown based on your image.

Something else I was very happy about – I maintained the discipline to fold a lot, despite having the big stack at the table. Even though I more than tripled up in this session, overall my cards were terrible. I went for extended stretches where I was forced to fold crap like K3, Q4, 92, endless junk. When I have a big stack in a cash game, I’m willing to play nearly any playable hand for a standard raise, down to small suited connectors. But I wasn’t even getting those type of hands. I’m sure I looked like the biggest nit at the table, but as the session wore on I really didn’t care, because I could pick up the occasional modest pot based on my tight image.

I lost one showdown all night, which was a small and inconsequential pot. Every other hand at showdown was a winner, including 2 hands where I held the nuts and managed to get paid for maximum value.

Kick Back

2008-02-08T23:27:00.000-05:00

I hate it when a poker blog post starts: “Really sorry I haven’t posted for a while…”

Screw that! You post when you want. Its your life and your blog. A blog should be written like poker should be played – never apologize for your actions. If you suck out on someone, stack their chips and play the next hand. If you haven’t posted for a month, so be it. Stop apologizing! Some of these people should be apologizing for the stuff that they do write, rather than not writing enough…

**************

Holy crap, this entire blog has to be a joke – http://88percent.blogspot.com/ There is no other explanation for it. If actually true, this dude must be in very sad shape.

**************

I have been traveling a lot more for work, mainly night-time city council meetings. I bought an iPod from some of my poker tournament winnings right after Christmas. I’ve been downloading poker podcasts and listening to these as I travel all over the great State of Missouri.

I have listed to almost all of the Pokerroad podcasts. I like their laid-back and light-hearted attitude toward poker and the poker world. I really like Sebock’s constant theme that poker players often take themselves too seriously, and the game should be fun. I completely agree, since poker is my hobby and it should always be fun.

The thing that I like the very best from the Pokerroad podcasts is when Barry Greenstein sits in as guest host when Sebock or Smith are absent. Greenstein’s analysis is absolutely spot on, and he is unbelievably smart. He is steeped in “old school” poker but is also in-tune with modern poker trends and the rise of the young poker generation. Based on his discussion, you can tell that his play adapts and evolves on a constant basis. He is primarily a cash-game player that also has success in tournaments, and I like cash games first and tournaments second. If I could pick one player to emulate the most, it would be Greenstein. In the raging debate over “math vs. feel” players or “on-line vs. live” players, Greenstein’s discussion with Eric “Rizen” Lynch was the best. Summarized: on-line players may have the math down cold, and live players have the most experience reading people, but you must have superior skills in both aspects of your game or you will not reach the top. Neglect either and your game will suffer, and you will not be able to compete with the best.

Listening to Pokerroad has renewed my enthusiasm for poker. I am typically thinking about poker during my few quiet moments as life buzzes on around me, and listening to other players that have a genuine enthusiasm for the game is infectious.

*********

I have become a compulsive liar at the poker table, even among friends. I played in a home game two Saturdays back. I was in a grove and my read was on. I realized something from this session –lying about my hand has now become routine. This is a good thing, as far as poker goes, but as I was reflecting on the game I was kind of shocked at how easily (and convincingly) I could lie about my hand and separate my behavior at the table from real life. I would never lie to these friends, but it’s an important aspect of my poker game, and it can be effective for setting up future plays.

In the home game, we start with a one-rebuy tournament, which usually takes up most of the evening. I built up a big stack early by hitting a few hands and playing much more aggressive then everyone else. What I would consider standard continuation bets allowed me to win many small and medium sized pots. No one else is really that aggressive in this game. I even tone it down a bit in the home game, but I’m still betting and raising much more then everyone else. There were several hands where I would be heads up on the turn or river, smell fear or weakness and make a sizable bet or raise and get my opponent to lay down. I can tell when they are going to call.

After they folded, then the lying came into play. They would ask about what I had, and I would lie about the strength of my hand: “You made a really good fold there. I had the boat,” I would say, or something similar. And my lies would work because the hands that I would claim fit into my hand ranges. For example, on a T-8-Q-8-K board, I said that I had T8 for the boat after the hand was over. This is easily in my hand range (and is actually my very favorite hand, but they don’t know that).

One key hand gave me a huge stack at the start of the third level. A guy that I have played with only once before raised to 150 at the 25-50 level. He had just over his original starting stack of 2000 and I had close to 4000. I had AK on the button. I raised to something like 450. It was folded back around to him and he quickly pushed. I acted like I was thinking about my decision, but I was actually trying to get a read. At first he acted confident, but as I thought longer I got the very strong sense that he did not like his hand so much. I don’t think he said anything in response when I stated, “I have a tough decision here.” But the longer I took to make my decision, the more hesitant and uncomfortable he appeared.

Then it was like I could read his thoughts: Crap. I really wish I hadn’t done that. Please don’t call. So I called, of course, putting him on something like 99 or TT, maybe AJ. He flipped over KQo, and grimaced when he saw my hand. Then he said: “Oh, man, I misread my hand, I thought I had AK when I went all-in!”

I could tell that was a complete lie. He was making a move and got caught. But what a strange thing to say – I guess he didn’t want to admit that he made a conscious mistake. Hey, I see no problem with someone making a move like that against me, because my re-raising hand range was large considering my stack size and how I had been playing up to that point. I held up and he rebought. I had a monstrous stack for a while. I think this hand really got inside his head because he played weak after that and was the first to bust out.

Then I went card dead near the end of the tournament when the blinds were super-high and ended up chopping 60-40 – I got the 40%. I pulled off another bluff in the short cash game that followed, and immediately followed that up with another lie about my hand to cement the bluff.

*********

I got stacked recently in a NLHE cash table, set over set. I raised in MP with QQ, and the button called. We went heads-up to a flop of K-Q-9, two suits. I led out for about the pot, he raised, I pushed and he called with KK. Damn it! There is just no way I can get away from this on-line. Live maybe, with a really good read against the right person, but on-line never. The average on-line donk’s re-raising hand range includes AA, KQ, AK, K9, Q9, 99, maybe also AQ, KJ, KT, AT, J9, T9 and J8 with a flush draw thrown in. I am only losing to KK and JT. I’m just gonna lose my stack there, but it hardly seems fair because I have no chance at all to get away from it…

**************

I get to play live poker tomorrow night, assuming I have the energy to go play. I likely will…

Trouble Tourney Hand

2008-02-02T20:07:00.000-05:00

I finished in 4th place in the CT Thursday night tournament for two consecutives weeks. I had average to above average luck -- some key suckouts suffered, and a few dealt to others. I've had good patience when my stack has been short, which can make all the difference in this tournment since there are many players that play close to optimal pre-flop strategy.

Here's a hand that was aggravating. Its a relatively inconsequential hand overall, but I kept thinking about it later and had to go back and review. This type of hand comes up a lot in cash games and can be troubling.

Villian: Very solid player overall. Calls too much PF with a medium to average sized stack. Calls too much OOP. Plays a large stack very well -- one of the best big stack players among the CT regulars. Not afraid to run a bluff. Often plays distracted -- surfing and doing other computer stuff. He's been calling raises a lot in this tourney. I believe that he thinks I bluff more often than most CTers.

The Hand:
PokerStars Level II (15/30)
Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Villain (1215 in chips)
Seat 9: Darvcus (2065 in chips)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Darvcus [8d Ac]
Seat 8: calls 30
Darvcus: calls 30
Villain: calls 30
SB: calls 15
BB: checks
*** FLOP *** [8h 6c 3c]
SB: checks
BB: checks
Seat 8, : checks
Darvcus: bets 90
[I have TPTK and very likely the best hand since everyone limped PF. The board is uncoordinated but for the spades.]
Villain: calls 90
SB: folds
BB: folds
Seat 8: folds
[I put Villain on spades, some sort of straight draw such as T9 or 75, or less likely a slow-played set.]

*** TURN *** [8h 6c 3c] [Kh]
Darvcus: bets 180
[This card would not complete any of his draws. If I was ahead on the flop, I'm likely still ahead now. I also assume that if I am behind now he will raise and I'll know where I am at. This bet should chase him away if he is on a draw. Finally, if I check and he bets, I may be forced to fold the best hand. So I have to bet here.]
Villain: calls 180
[Still on a draw? Its seems very unlikely that he has a king. He could have called on the flop with KcXc, but if so I think he would raise here especially if he thinks I am double-barrel-semi-bluffing with a draw, which he knows I will do. The only thing I can settle on is that he's still drawing.]

*** RIVER *** [8h 6c 3c Kh] [Ts]
Darvcus: bets 210
[Based on my turn evaluation, this is a value bet. The ten on the river is unlikely to have hit any of his drawing hands. It occurs to me that he might have an 8 with a worse kicker.]
Villain: calls 210

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Darvcus: shows [8d Ac] (a pair of Eights)
Villain: shows [Ks Qh] (a pair of Kings)
Villain collected 1110 from pot

Analysis:
My immediate reaction was -- what the hell was he calling for on the flop?! Floating to take it away later? No, because he hit his best card on the turn and just called. So I have no explanation for the call.

I could give him credit for two spades that had a king, but there is no reason to call my flop bet with KQo. Upon further reflection, I do not like my river bet because there is no hand that would call that I beat, except maybe an 8 with a worse kicker. And the ten might have hit some draws, and might still call on the river.

When my opponent calls on the flop with a hand that really should be folded on the flop, I have trouble connecting the dots on the turn and river. I need to work on that -- but how do you re-evaluate on the turn so drastically that you nearly throw out his original hand range and devise a completely new hand range?

My PLO Education Begins

2008-02-01T16:36:00.000-05:00

On-line, its my contention that most hobby players do not have a significant edge over the majority of on-line hold ‘em players, either limit or NL. The market is saturated with books and on-line instruction which serves to educate and create a more equalized playing field, as far as pre-flop play is concerned. Since most on-line tournaments and SNGs are short-stacked play, most of the action is PF where there is not much edge for a hobby player. Yes, lots of players still make lots of mistakes, but from my observations the hold ‘em games are no where near as good as they were 3 years ago.

So, I am learning PLO on-line. Based on what little I have read about PLO, most significantly the Chris Ferguson PLO Chapter in the Full Tilt Tournament Strategy book, I see lots of players playing PLO like hold ‘em. Aside from the Full Tilt book, I am essentially educating myself. So, here is my first Top 10 strategy observations about on-line PLO:

1. Pre-flop you should devalue pairs. A hand like Q-Q-8-6 is almost nothing but trouble if played like a hold ‘em hand. This hand has the same value as something like 8-8-Q-6 – you need to hit a set on the flop to go anywhere. If an overcard hits on the flop, the pocket pair is worthless. If the board is connected at all, the pocket pair is worthless or will become worthless very shortly. You cannot go to showdown without improving a single pocket pair.

2. Mid-range and low connecting cards are great. A hand like Q-J-T-9 is very strong. A hand with three connecting cards like Q-J-9-3 is also worth seeing the flop for a raise. Low connecting cards are also strong, like 6-5-4-2. These hands allow for significant decision-making on the flop, and become very easy hands to play if you miss the flop – you just fold. Higher connecting hands like A-K-J-9 are strong, but are not as strong as the mid-range and low connecting cards because you cannot hit wrap straight-draws. Example: the hand Q-J-T-7 on a board of K-T-8 is better than holding A-K-J-9 on a board of K-Q-T.

3. Bluffing – don’t do it except in very rare circumstances. All players call with all manner of draws. If the board is two suited or is connected in any way, do not bluff. The only situation that I have encountered where bluffing can work is in late position, everyone has checked to you, and the board is completely uncoordinated like K-7-2 rainbow. But even then, the pot will be small and relatively worthless compared to the pots that you will win in Omaha with good hands.

4. In any pot with 3 or more players (including you), if a flush is showing on board and you cannot beat the nut flush or another high flush, just fold. Do not play your straight, set or 2-pair hand against a flush board – it’s a loser 19 out of 20 times. I may be off on the frequency here, but with players betting into a flush board in a multi-way pot, someone has the flush.

5. Do not slow-play except in rare circumstances. If you hit your hand on the flop, just bet it. If someone else has a hand or a draw, you will get action. If no one else has a hand or a draw, you will take the pot with the bet. From my limited experience, check-raising in a multi-way pot, and usually even in a heads-up pot, will just result in getting all the chips in the middle before the river because everyone quickly becomes pot committed to the hand and is probably correct, or close to correct, to call all raises after the betting starts.

6. You cannot be scared of playing to your good draws because that is how everyone else is betting (but you should still apply the math and fold when not getting correct odds). In hold ‘em, draws lead to semi-bluffing opportunities. In Omaha, draws lead to everyone getting their entire stack in the middle on a regular basis.

7. I hit a lot more sets in this game than I would have guessed. Maybe I’m just getting lucky with hitting sets – I need to read up on this. But I seem to hit sets with startling frequency, and top set can lead to big winning pots against all the drawing hands that are willing to get their stack in the middle.

8. When you have middle or bottom set, do not be surprised when you are beat by a better set. It happens much more frequently in Omaha than in hold ‘em.

9. A-A-x-x hands must be played as fast as possible pre-flop. You absolutely have to jam for the max raise with this hand pre-flop, because its value decreases greatly when you get action on the flop. If your table has lots of pre-flop raises, this may be one of the slow-play exceptions – just call or make a modest raise in EP with A-A hands, with the intention of re-raising the max pre-flop if there is a raise behind you.

All opinions expressed herein are subject to revision as I continue to learn this game. I have a lot to learn.

On-Line Rebuilding Plan

2008-01-21T17:43:00.000-05:00

1. Eliminate bluffing almost entirely. Everyone calls too much on-line. Like me, at my levels of play, no one believes that you have hand. Let my opponents' bad calls when I have a hand make up for the times that I could have won with a bluff but did not fire. This is completely different than my live play...

2. Stay tight. Resist the urge to LAG it up like everyone else. My best results come from when I play tight.

3. Leave the table when I am up. If I can win 20-30 BBs at any cash table, I will be perfectly satisfied to leave, bank the profit and start another table. Exception: a clear donk just waiting to give his chips away.

4. Stick mostly to SNGs, where I have my best returns.

5. Keep Omaha tables very low-limit, in my effort to learn this game.

6. Run the math of hands after sessions. I used to do this all the time, but stopped mainly because I don't feel that I need much practice at this any more. But, it wouldn't hurt to get back to the basics and review the math on a regular basis. Come to think of it, my downward slide on-line roughly corresponds to when I stopped doing my poker math homework away from the tables...

7. Stay away form heads-up play, both cash games and SNGs. The variance is too high when you are trying to rebuild.

8. Play at full 9-seat tables. My SNG and cash games results are the very best at 9-seat tables.

9. Read hand analysis on 2+2 more often, stay away from the junk posts.

10. Have fun, don't play scared.

What is going on?

2008-01-21T00:58:00.000-05:00

If you don't want to read about another poker player whining about his results, then skip this and move on. I write this for myself, anyway, and not possible readers.

I cannot win anything on-line. I used to win at on-line poker on a regular basis. I still win at live poker. I am fairly certain that my poker skills have not dropped that noticeably, but now I am questioning things.

I cannot cash in a SNG of any type at any level. I cannot post a winning session in an on-line cash game. No, I do not think on-line poker is rigged.

Its a neverending series of bad beats which defies all odds. Nothing like this happens with my live play. So now I am questioning myself. Am I playing too aggressively? Too tight? Can players read me too well? Are players using stat tracking tools that peg me?

I really don't think my game has changed that much. I still play roughly the same style that has worked very well in the past. I change my game up based on the complezion of the table. I calculate the math of every hand and incorporate that into my play on a constant basis.

But I continue to lose at a steady clip. Can't win a race. Fantastic second-best hands. Regular runs of completely unplayable junk that drops me to <10 BBs in SNGs. Someone calls raises, I flop nothing, I cannot bet, because I will get called if they flop anything.

I'm playing more Omaha hi. (I will post my personal Omaha rules at some point -- already written up.) I flop the nut straight. I play it as fast as possible with successive pot-sized bets on the flop and turn, and get called by unplayable hands that run me down. Yes I want players to make these bad, unprofitable calls, but I want to win a fucking hand once in a while! Its devastating my on-line backroll and my confidence.

I love this game, but I cannot keep playing when I absolutely cannot win. I am doubting my abilities as a result of this run, but keep reminding myself that its the long run that counts. And, nothing like this happens with my live play.

I don't think that the skills I use in live play can make that much difference with my on-line game, but I have no other explanation for what is happening besides this or just amazing horrible luck. I've won a good deal at on-line play before, and I keep telling myself that it can happen again, But I am seriously starting to wonder if that is true anymore.

NOTE: For any Team Hephastus players that may read this, I have had a never-ending series of work-related Thursday night meetings since the second week in December. I work with a lot of cities, and city councils hold most meetings at night. I am attending more of these meetings than ever before, with lots of travel. If I had known this would be the case, I would not have signed up for the team again. Even if I could make it, I am sure that my on-line performance would not change on Thursday nights...

Three Live Hands

2008-01-17T22:55:00.000-05:00

The Game: Live NLHE, $1/2 blinds, $5 to call. Typical PF raise is to $15 or $20

The Villain: Wildly loose and aggressive player, but also very friendly. He’s the kind of guy you want at the table because he looses everyone up, but also puts them at ease with friendly chatter. Since I had the identical playing style as him (except for all his talking), we locked horns at every possible opportunity including these three big hands in one Friday evening session. I’m in seat 2, he’s in seat 7.

Hand #1: After 2 folds, he raises in MP to $20. After one caller, I raise on the button to $60 with AK-hearts. He raises to $120 total. Guy in between folds, and I call $60 more and we’re heads up. I’m thinking he either has AA, KK, or re-raised with just about anything to squeeze out the other guy and get HU with me. Pot is about $220.

Flop is 8-6-3, two spades. He bets $120 and I call. Now I’m putting him on a continuation bet, and I plan to take the hand away later. Pot is about $440.

Turn is (8-6-3)-4, did not complete a spade flush. This appears to change nothing. He counts out chips as if he has every intention of betting, but then looks at me and checks. In his split second glance, I read strength and that he was going to CR me if I bet. So, I check.

River is (8-6-3-4)-7, did not complete the spade flush. He bets $200. I make like I’m thinking long and hard about the call, but what I’m really thinking about is how badly I fucked this hand up. I fold.

Analysis: Except for maybe my PF call of his raise, I think I played every street poorly. If I call on the flop with the intention to take it away later, I need to follow though. But, my read on the turn may have saved me chips, because Hand #2 below was very similar and confirmed 100% that he hs the ability to slow play a monster all the way to the end. At the end of Hand #1, I really thought I misplayed it, but after Hand #2 I think my only mistake was the flop call.

Hand #2: This hand is only relevant for one purpose. After no PF raise and smallish bets on all streets, including his check-call on the turn, the river is Ac-Kc-Qc-Tc-6h. He checked on the river, and I bet $60 on a pure bluff (I had no club). He checked-raised to $160 total. I folded, and he showed Jc-9s for the royal flush. He check-called and checked the river with a Royal Flush, setting me up to make my river bluff! Very well played by him. He also collected the $950 club-Royal Flush jackpot.

This hand confirmed that I believe he was slow-playing me on Hand #1, because I saw him play strong hands like this against two other players. Note to self: this slow-playing mofo is dangerous.

Hand #3: Mind games from past hands came into play on this hand. Villain and I have built up the biggest stacks at the table over several hours of play, and I have around $1300. He has me covered by a bit.

Lots of limpers to a flop of A-Q-Q, rainbow. Villain bets $20 in EP, and after one caller I raise to $80 total on the button with Q6. Villain raises to $200. I put him on an ace, and I think that he thinks that I’m either on a draw or stealing -- I don’t think that he thinks I have a Q. Other guy folds what I assume to be some sort of straight draw, and ducked out of what would likely become a very expensive pot. I call, thinking that I have the best hand. Pot is about $440

Turn is (A-Q-Q)-K. Villain ponders a bet, but checks. I think he may have AJ, AT, Ax, maybe a Qx hand. I do not think that Villain has JT, and my read of the guy that got squeezed out on the flop was that he had JT based on his reaction on the turn. (Yes, reading players that folded already in a hand can come into play at times.) I do not think that Villain has AQ or KQ, or even QJ or QT, or he probably would have raised PF. I bet $300. Villain thinks for a long time, then calls. I get the strong sense that he does not really like his hand here, that I am ahead or at least we’re tied because we both have a Q, and his hesitation is true and not a slow-play (all past history to the contrary). Pot is over $1000 now, and I have about $800 left.

River is (A-Q-Q-K)-T. He looks genuinely scared and checks. I quickly push, with the intention of signaling, “Well, I have a boat, so there’s no way I can just check here. That should be very obvious.” Villain goes into the tank for an extremely long time. This is the longest that I have ever seen anyone take to make a decision in a cash game. He counts it out, and he has only a few chips more than me. He groans. “Why are you doing this to me?” He clearly is in a bind about this decision.

I sit motionless, and as things drag on I am 95% certain that he has a J for the straight and has me beat. JT? J9? AJ? I’m giving off full-house vibes with my body language: Call if you have the jack, because I obviously have the boat. What else would I have here? I have to have a boat to make this play! Fold, and save your money, or you are an idiot! You don’t want to blow that whole stack that you worked all night to build up with just a straight on that board, now do you? Fold, fold, fold! You are beat!

He calls with extreme reluctance. I flip over my Q6 and he flips over – Q5.

Villain explodes with great relief and comes around the table for a fist pump and a hand shake. “Shit, man, what a hand!! Wow, you had me scared there!” We exchanged a friendly “What are you doin’ playing a hand like Q6/Q5?” But we both knew the answer – we play these hands to catch flops and win big pots. And we both thought that this was the one – the winner sits with $2500+ in a freakin’ $1/2/5 NL game!. I asked him if he thought I had a boat, maybe KQ? Or QT that got there on the river?

His response was somewhat incoherent, and I think the tension and release of the hand prevented him from speaking. The only thing that he said which made any sense was, “I just didn’t think that you had AQ, man, or you would have raised pre-flop.” Yeah, but what about KQ or QT? Or even QJ?! Any reasonable Q-hand beats you. You really thought you were making a good call? I didn’t say any of this, of course.

Oh well, chop it up and play on. But we were both extremely cautious of each other after that. I ended the night around $1500, and he was very congratulatory as I left.

I generally like playing against weaker players, but I also genuinely appreciate these mind games at the table once in a while against someone who shows good sportsmanship and is not afraid to win or lose. It makes for some very fun poker.

End with a....

2007-12-29T02:02:00.001-05:00

One final live poker session for 2007 at Ameristar. I started by winning about $200 in the NL cash games after floundering on the $15-$30 limit table for about a half hour while I waited for my NL seat.

I made to the fourth level of the tournament with a decent sized stack. I picked up AA UTG at the 100-200 level, raised to 500 and the SB called. The flop came K-Q-J with two hearts. SB immediately pushed and just had me covered. Two thoughts quickly went through my head: “There is absolutely no hand that he would push with on this flop that I could beat. I kinda don’t care because I think the cash games are going to be more lucrative for me tonight.” Just one of those feelings, but maybe it was my own way of rationalizing a martyr call with AA. So against my better judgment I called, and he tables T-9 for the lower straight.

Back to the NL game. First hand I get AA, raise to $20 UTG+1 and one guy calls to my immediate left. He is there just about every time that I’ve ever played at Ameristar. He’s the guy that’s always looking around the room, calling out loudly to other players across the room and talking with all the dealers like they’re best buds. There’s one of these guys (and usually more than one) in every poker room.

The flop is 9-8-6 rainbow. I lead out for $25 and he raises to $75. I ask him, “Really?” He kinda nods and shrugs, like “Yeah, I like that flop.” My instinct is to raise him, make it $200 total. But then I don’t like the idea of building a huge pot with one pair this early, so I just call. I’m having trouble putting him on a hand, and he’s an experienced and somewhat tricky player. The turn is (9-8-6)-3. I check with the intention of raising if he bets. But he checks.

The river is (9-8-6-3)-7. I bet $110, and he calls with A-5 for the straight that made it on the river. His raise on the flop was what, just goofing with me? And my instinct was dead on – I could have easily blasted him out of the hand. We discussed the hand as the play went on, and he admitted that even a min-raise back at him on the flop would have made him fold.

So, now I’ve had AA cracked in back-to-back hands, once in a tournament and once in a cash game. A new record for me, on two counts. I resolve to trust my instincts more, since my instinct in both AA hands was accurate.

The rest of the session went great. A few hands after the second AA hand, I was faced with an all in bet on the turn with AJ on a board of A-K-8-J. The pot was about $150 and the bet was about the same. I had tangled with this dude before several times. I could not put him on AK or 88 based on the way he played the hand, so I called. I heard the always wonderful “Good call” as I slid my chips forward, and he mucked before the river and before I even showed my hand.

I won a few more very large pots and built up a nice stack:

I always laugh inside when I can build up a $1500 stack in a $1-2-5 NL game ($1-2 blinds, $5 to call). I can play this game completely wide open, and bully the $200-$300 stacks, while at the same time usually avoiding significant trouble because I know that plenty of opportunities will inevitably come along. They always do in this game.

A good way to end the year. I remain very confident in my live game, but I remain unable to make any headway with on-line play. I have become very reliant on my live reads, which I don’t think is a bad thing at all, but I have completely lost my feel for on-line play.

Poker Year in Review

2007-12-25T23:07:00.000-05:00

I’ve been very busy with work and life, and I haven’t had as much time to play poker lately. Certainly not as much as in the past, or as much as I would like. But I do still think about the game all the time – strategy, hand analysis, branching out into other games.

Live Poker

Live poker has been great for me this year. I had some very successful Vegas trips, good results in local cash games, and a nice local tournament score. I have worked on and improved my player reading ability, and this is what I like the most about poker. I have a very good feel for the game when sitting with real players, and the math and strategy aspects of the game that I have learned over the last several years is now second nature in live play.

On-Line Poker

On-line poker has sucked this year. I cannot win the Chiptalk tournament. The fish have largely dried up due to legal restrictions on deposit. The games are tougher now, and even the low level games are populated by more skilled and tricky players. On-line play is becoming closer to my Clone Theory every day – the majority of the on-line players are closer in skill, and the results therefore reflect luck and variance rather than differences in skill.

In years past, it was fairly easy to win. I took a single $200 deposit and ran it up to several thousand dollars spread over several sites over a period of a few year. I played a slow, steady game and gradually built a bankroll at several sites. The Poker Horror Story took a nice bite out of my on-line bankroll, but I fully recovered.

Then the new laws went into effect. New deposits were restricted, so much less new money was coming into the game. Moving my funds between sites was cut off when NetTeller was shut down. As a result, all of my funds were pooled in my PokerStars and FullTilt accounts. Then the games went bad, and now I cannot win.

To compound problems, for the last half of this year I have been on the worst ice-cold streak of my poker playing history. I cannot count how many times I have put my money in as a 75%+ favorite and lost. I cannot cash in a freakin’ $10 SNG! Last night all the money went in and Villain had 6 outs on the river, making me about a 84% favorite. Exactly as expected, one of his outs hit. It happens so often that it is now routine. I expect to lose.

All this has combined to nearly eviscerate my on-line bankroll. This is so sad, because there was a time when winning on-line was routine. So I ask myself – have I lost my skills? Am I doing something wrong? How could I run $200 up to around $6000, and now I absolutely cannot win at anything? Why do I win in live play, but lose on-line?

I guess I have answered these questions for myself already – deposit restrictions dried up the fish, tougher players remain, games are harder, I have little or no edge over my opponents since they are all equal to or better than my skill level, and variance kicks into create losing streaks from which I cannot recover. In addition, from what I can pick up in my readings, there are more players using data mining tools, Poker Tracker and other statistical or tracking software, and there is obviously collusion and cheating. All of this has some negative effect on a casual player's overall results. How much, I am not sure.

Branching Out On-Line

But I love to play the game! What’s a hobby poker player to do? Well, I have dropped down in limits, but soon I will have no funds left if this trend continues. Also, I am looking into other games. Hold ‘em is fun and popular, but everyone had read the same books and everyone knows how to play like Harrington, Ferguson, Bruson, Negreanu, Sklansky, etc. I have the feeling that there are many games out there that play like PartyPoker NLHE circa 2005.

I cracked open the FullTilt Tournament book in the last few weeks and read the Matusow chapter on Omaha HL and the Ferguson chapter on PLO. Matusow really knows what he’s talking about with Omaha-8 The same with Ferguson’s chapter on PLO. Ferduson's chapter has completely re-aligned my approach to starting hand values in Omaha – it really is very different that hold ‘em. I expect that the edge right now in PLO is beating the legions of players that apply hold ‘em strategy and starting hand values to PLO.

I will have the opportunity to play the Ameristar this week, so there will be one more live session to round out the year.

New Chips

After purchasing nearly every sample set ever made, I finally made another purchase – a new 1400 set of the Dunes commemorative chips. Paid from my live poker bankroll. I believe the Dunes chips are, by far, the best looking chip available in the moderate to low price range. Actually, I think they look as good or better that the Pharaohs. The replica Dunes house mold is and inlay are classic. For a plastic chip, the sound is wonderful, almost exactly like clay.

Do I need another chip set? No, but collecting is an affliction, so I do not fight it. And, I will be giving away my original dice chip set, so I need something in replacement.

All Hallows Eve

2007-10-31T01:05:00.001-04:00

For thousands of years people have been celebrating different holidays and festivals at the end of October. The Celts celebrated it as Samhain (pronounced "sow-in", with "sow" rhyming with cow). The Irish English dictionary published by the Irish Texts Society defines the word as follows:

"Samhain, All Hallowtide, the feast of the dead in Pagan and Christian times, signalizing the close of harvest and the initiation of the winter season, lasting till May, during which troops (esp. the Fiann) were quartered. Faeries were imagined as particularly active at this season. From it the half year is reckoned. also called Feile Moingfinne (Snow Goddess).(1) The Scottish Gaelis Dictionary defines it as "Hallowtide. The Feast of All Soula. Sam + Fuin = end of summer."(2) Contrary to the information published by many organizations, there is no archaeological or literary evidence to indicate that Samhain was a deity. The Celtic Gods of the dead were Gwynn ap Nudd for the British, and Arawn for the Welsh. The Irish did not have a "lord of death" as such.

The information on Samhain is from Rowan Moonstone's The Origins of Halloween.
For more info check out Halloween on Wikipedia(1) Rev. Patrick Dineen, "An Irish English Dictionary" (Dublin, 1927), p. 937(2) Malcolm MacLennan, "A Pronouncing and Etymological Dictionary of the Gaelic Language" (Aberdeen, 1979), p. 279

The Celts believed that every year on the last day of October, the souls of the dead visited the earth.

When the Romans conquered the Celts in the first century A.D., they added parts of their festivals, Feralia and Pomona to the tradition. Feralia was a festival to honor the dead and Pomona was a harvest festival named after the goddess of fruit (apples) and trees.

Around the eigth century, the Christian church made November 1 All Saints' Day to honor all of the saints that didn't have a special day of their own. Over the years these festivals combined, the mass held on All Saints' Day was called Allhallowmas (the mass of all Hallows - saintly people). The night before was known as All Hallows Eve. Eventually this name became Halloween.

In the 1800s, as a lot of people emigrated to the U.S., the holidays and traditions of different cultures merged. Halloween was not always a happy time. October 31, or the night before took on other names. Some called it Devil's or Hell night, to others it was mischief night. Here in Vermont, the night before is called cabbage night. To some people this became a time to play tricks on others. Some of these tricks were not fun at all. Luckily, community groups and individuals took action and started to change Halloween into a family event. Dressing up in costumes and going "trick or treating", costume parades, community parties and Fall festivals are some of the ways that Halloween is celebrated today.

Other countries have different Fall festivals to honor the deceased.

The Festival of the Dead is one of the most important happenings in both Palermo and the rest of Sicily. The second of November is a festival day for the children of Palermo as, according to tradition,they were made to believe that their dead relatives would return the night before and leave them traditional sweets and cakes on the table (Martorana fruit, which is almond paste made into the shape of different fruit). They would also receive puppets of boiled sugar and toys. It's one way of keeping the memory of their dead relatives and loved ones alive.

Rate

2007-10-30T23:19:00.000-04:00

While driving home from work today, a system to rate my live poker sessions occurred to me. The primary skills for my play on a 1-10 scale are:

Energy: how much energy I bring to the game, measured by how awake I feel and how much I am "into the game" (high number = more energy)

Focus: self-explanatory -- how well I am paying attention and reading my opponents (high number = better focus)

Cards: how good the cards are to me, and a measurement of luck (high number = better cards)

Opponents: quality of my opponents (high number = better players)

Recent tournament win --
Energy: 8
Focus: 9
Cards: 6
Opponents: 4

Recent cash game session --
Energy: 6
Focus: 8
Cards: 6
Opponents: 5

Venetian cash game session --
Energy: 7
Focus: 9
Cards: 10
Opponents: 5

Play at Your Own Risk

2007-10-24T00:31:00.000-04:00

The Absolute Poker cheating allegations are the hot topic. I can’t help but laugh at all the people writing about this topic – despite all the bitching, everyone will keep playing. And really, what are you, as a player, going to do about it?

My thoughts from a different angle. Imagine these scenarios and tell me what you would do:

-- You log onto your on-line account one evening and the cashier window says your account is $0. You send some e-mails. The response is “our records reflect that your account is $0.” You send more e-mails, make phone calls and repeatedly receive the same response – our records say that your account is $0.

-- You play in a cash game and its obvious that two or more players at your table are colluding. Several people lose money, including you. You send e-mails, and the response is “we have reviewed the history and our records indicate that there was no cheating.”

-- You try to log on to play and the site is no longer running. The company just closed up shop and ran with the money in all player accounts.

Seriously, what would you do? Send messages, make phone calls, post loud rants on chat boards, scream in your personal blog. What would this accomplish when someone else is holding your money? In the U.S., possession is 9/10 of the law. With off-shore internet poker sites, its probably 10/10 of the law (whatever the law may be that governs the situation).

Would you try to sue? Would you actually seek out an attorney and pay him/her money out of your own pocket to file a lawsuit? Who would you sue? How does US law apply in the jurisdiction in which the on-line company operates? The jurisdictional problems alone might be an insurmountable hurdle to anyone that does not have lots of money to pay attorneys. And what attorney would take this case on a contingency basis?

The point is, if any scenario happened where your money just disappears from an on-line poker account, there’s probably not a damn thing you could do about it. For this reason, I am amazing that people rely upon on-line poker as their primary (or only?) source of income. For anyone that actually relies upon this to feed their children -- absolutely irresponsible. I am not indicting poker as a profession, just the unreliable nature of on-line poker.

Play at your own risk.

Tick Tick Boom

2007-10-20T01:39:00.000-04:00

The Game: Ameristar $120 buy-in NLHE Thursday night tournament, 49 entrants.

Result: 1st place, $1928 cash. My second biggest tournament cash to date.

I didn’t actually win 1st place outright, but there was a 4-way chop at the end and I got the full 1st place prize money because I had a crushing chip lead over the other three players. I held something like 70% of the chips in play when we were down to four.

How it went down: Nothing spectacular throughout the tournament. I did not deliver a single bad beat, and no one delivered a bad beat against me. I was all-in only twice, when I open-pushed at the 100-200 and 150-300 levels when he blinds were very high relative to all stack sizes. No callers both times, so my tournament life was never at risk in any hand. Every contested pot was for less than my entire stack.

Keys to this tournament: In live play, I play cash games much more than tournaments. The only time I play live tournaments is in Vegas and in the Ameristar tournament maybe 3-4 times per year. As a result, I feel that my read is best in live cash games. So, I went into this tournament with the intention of focusing on my reads, as I do in cash games, to improve this aspect of my game.

It was primarily due to a sensitivity of stack size compared to style of play. I focused on identifying players’ styles, and then balancing that against stack size. There were situations where I avoided confrontations with smaller stacks who were prone to be more aggressive and play back, and be more on the attack against bigger stacks who were generally weaker players.

I would fold some strong hands that I might normally raise with pre-flop, when I had the sense that someone was ready to call or re-raise. I focused on the “look to the left” skill – looking around left at the players remaining to act to get a sense of their strength before I looked at my cards. Most everyone else looked at their hands before it was their turn to act, and they were giving off tells, or at least some aura of strength or weakness that I could just feel. It sounds like New Age mumbo-jumbo, but it was really working – I was predicting (to myself) with amazing accuracy who was strong and ready to pounce. I avoided a lot of trouble and coasted through the mid-levels by doing this.

The Key Hand: When we collapsed to the final table with 9 players, the Villain was a 60-ish woman wearing a red leather cowboy hat. She had a dominant chip lead with maybe 14,000 and everyone else was somewhere between 3000 to 6000. But, she played a big stack horribly. Her problem was that she hardly played at all, and when she did play she was usually out of position and her hand values were relatively weak for all-in confrontations. She would occasionally raise in EP with a hand like KJ, and then call a small stack push who had AJ. Worse, she would fail to call with tremendous pot odds in multi-way pots (ex. 700 call with one teensy stack all in, when the pot was already 3000+), with the opportunity to check it down and knock out the small stack. She continually made bad plays out of position and I got the sense that she came to the final table with a big stack due to luck. So she was the target, if I got the chance.

Despite her weak plays, she managed to collect an even bigger stack after winning some races. I won a few decent hands as the players dwindled, and Villain and I each knocked out two players. Down to five players, she and I were close as the big stacks, but I had her covered, and the other three were short.

At the 700-1400 level, she opened UTG for 4500. I was next to act and had two red kings. The moment I had been waiting for. How to get her stack in the middle? I intentionally fumbled around with a raise, and made it look like I was weakly making a min-raise, but intentionally made it 1000 (two orange chips) short. The dealer called this out, and I tossed the other two chips in. She was watching this act. My read was that she had Ax. The plan was call a push, or push myself if she checked, on any flop that didn’t have an ace.

The flop was T-9-6 rainbow, and she quickly pushed. I called and she showed A8-hearts. Perfect. I held up, and had about 70% of the chips. The other players quickly worked out the deal and I took the full 1st place prize.

Question: When the initial deal idea was raised, the other players all quickly pointed out, “You get 1st place money. You can’t finish any better than that!” But could I have gotten more than 1st place money in a deal? Is this ever done? Do players ever use extreme big-stack deal leverage to squeeze better than 1st place money out of a deal – pay me better than 1st place money, or no deal? My equity in the remaining prize pool was about $2800 based on my stack size, but they were correct that I could not win more than $1928 if we played it out. They each got about $700 in the deal, but 3rd and 4th place money was somewhere around $600 and $400, respectively, so my leverage would have been their individual risk of losing about $300 by playing on. I would have looked like a greedy hog for even trying, but I’m still curious if this would have worked.

Save the Chipleader, Save the World

2007-10-10T23:11:00.000-04:00

The Game: $1/2 NLHE with a $5 bring-in. It costs at least $5 to limp in, including the BB. You can sit down with a max of $500 or 75% of the biggest stack at the table. I have no idea why the blinds are only $1/2, when the stacks are so big. Standard PF raise is $15 or $20.

My image: Loose PF, fairly tight after the flop. I’ve been playing a lot of hands, open raising or calling standard PF raises with anything playable, including everything down to single and double-gapped suited connectors. Important for this hand: I have not lost a single showdown all night. I’ve either won before showdown, won at showdown, or bailed out before the showdown. I started with $500 and I’m the big stack at the table with around $900.

The Villain: Sunburnt 40-ish Kansas State fan who watched Kansas whip K-State earlier in the day. He’s the luckbox of the evening – he keeps stumbling into lucky coolers that no one can fold. He has AA when someone else has KK, all in PF. He flops top set when someone else flops middle set, all in on the flop. He turns a straight when someone else flops 2-pair. He sat down with about $250 and ran it up to nearly $800 through dumb luck. He’s playing somewhat loose PF, but he sticks to the big cards and doesn’t seem to play the lower cards. Most importantly, Villain has the shakes when he has a big hand, and its very obvious to the whole table. Its been a 100% reliable tell.

The Hand: UTG+1, I raise to $15 PF with AT-clubs. Four callers, including Villain in the BB.

Flop is 4-A-4, rainbow. Villain checks. I bet $45. Everyone folds to Villain, who just calls.

Turn is 4-A-4-2, two spades. Villain bets $100, and he’s shaking horribly. I openly called attention to his shaking by saying “The Shake-O-Meter is pretty high. That really scares me.” Some laughs at the table. Villain looks kind of scared. Then I call.

River is 4-A-4-2-2. Villain bets $200, and he’s shaking even more as he struggles to push forward two stacks of red without causing a minor earthquake. He has $405 left. I say “Wow” when he is done, to point out that I am very aware of how badly he is shaking and aware of his strength. Then I calmly push.

Villain thinks about folding for a long time, then calls and shows J4-hearts. I muck and go home.

Analysis: I was attempting to use his tell against him, but my play failed miserably. I was trying to tell him, “I know how strong you think your hand is, but I am still pushing in the face of such an obvious tell. I have you beat.” Maybe I should have been more blunt and just said, “I know you have a four, but you should still fold and save your chips. I’m all in.”

His pause after my push on the river meant that he at least gave serious consideration to the fact that I could have AA, or maybe A4. I played this hand exactly as I would with AA – just calling his strong bet on the turn, and then pushing on the river even though it was almost 100% obvious he had a four.

(As a side note, I could not figure out his other card during the hand. I really didn’t think he had A4, so that left something like 54 or maybe 64. So, his actual hand of J4 was very unexpected and out of character with his prior play, but also completely irrelevant.)

What I learned from this hand: Don’t try a big bluff against a mediocre player that is incapable of folding in this situation. Be less likely to bluff against someone that has had a really good night and 75% of his stack came from other players. Don’t bluff K-State donkeys.

The Clone Table Theory

2007-09-20T20:54:00.000-04:00

Imagine that you are playing at a deep-stack, 9-player NLHE cash game table. Your 8 opponents are clones of you. They are not simply like you, they are you – exact clones of you today. Consequently, each player has exactly the same skill level and playing style.

How could you win in this game?
1. Avoid mistakes.
2. Randomize your play.
3. Have a bigger bankroll.
4. Get lucky.

If you are playing at a table against equally-skilled opponents, the best way to win is to reduce your mistakes and randomize your play. Even if your opponents understand your playing style perfectly (i.e. they are a clone of you), you can still be unpredictable by randomizing your play. Open with a wide range of starting hands. Play recurring hand types (i.e. draws) in different ways (sometimes call, sometimes raise). Respond to aggression in different ways. Make your opening raise constant (3xBB, as Mr. Ferguson teaches), but vary your post-flop bet or raise amounts.

There is also a key external factor – bankroll size. A bigger bankroll will allow you to better withstand bankroll fluctuations, and a bigger bankroll should provide more confidence, thereby reducing mistakes (or at least the fear of making mistakes) and enhancing aggression.

As players move up in playing levels, they get closer to the theoretical Clone Table. Over time, the natural selection process that occurs by winning at lower levels and moving up to higher levels brings together players that are more closely matched in style and ability. Picture the table in Bobby’s Room populated by Brunson, Ivey, Chan, Reese, Hanson, etc. – they all have large bankrolls, play aggressive, randomize their play, play with confidence, and avoid obvious mistakes. They aren’t clones of one another, and certainly have different playing styles, but in theory their skills are the most closely matched because they have risen through the ranks of weaker players and reached the poker pinnacle where the most highly skilled players compete.

These suggestions aren’t anything new, but imagining a Clone Table helps to emphasize the key attributes that would allow you to compete and win against equally-matched opponents, as well as lesser-skilled opponents.

I ♥ Live Poker

2007-09-11T00:28:00.000-04:00

My hot streak in live play continues, and my on-line game flounders.

Due to rare scheduling of family events, I was able to play on the last two Friday nights in the Ameristar NLHE cash games. Two weeks ago, I won $1040, and last Friday I won just over $200.

Two weeks ago was a spectacular session. I actually started at the $1/2 NL game because that's the biggest game they had running. A single $2/5 NL table finally opened around 9pm. For some reason they let players sit down with $1000, so I was instantly in deep-stack play. My favorite. Most other players only bought in for around $300.

By 1am, my stack was over $2000 and the table closed. Between myself and the guy next to me, the only other decent player at the table, we literally cleaned everyone else out except for two poor souls with $200 stacks. So the table closed.

Last Friday, I was running really cold, and nothing connected early on. I made a heroic comeback for a positive night. I had lots of interesting confrontations, which I'd like to write about if I have time.

I'm 100% confident in my reads in live deep-stack cash play. Its not that I can read my opponents 100% of the time, but I can tell when my read is accurate, and when my read is uncertain. I can tell when I can't tell what my opponent holds. That make sense? I can feel when I can successfully push back, and I can feel when I don't have a good read and need to back off. I can play a wide range of hands and show down some goofy hands that connect, scaring the table and giving me an unpredictable style.

************

My on-line game continues to suffer as I play more live games. I am dependent on a read of my opponents. So, I am floundering on-line. I'm not losing, I'm just not gaining ground anymore. I really think that the games are tougher now on-line. An on-line $1/2 NL is easily more difficult than a live $2/5 NL game.

I'm sticking to the $50 SNGs and the $1/2 and $2/4 NL games. Up $200, down $200. Up $300, down $300. There are no soft games that I can find. Plus, I've become more dependent on my live reads, which is just absent with on-line play. I'm liking the heads-up play even more because its the best way I can get a read on-line.

I'm going to try to get back to a more math-based game on-line, since I can't read there as well as live.

***************

The weather is getting cooler, football season is here, and Halloween is coming. I love this time of the year.

Testing the FullTilt Bankroll

2007-08-25T16:03:00.000-04:00

The Disney Cruise was great fun for all. As soon as we got off the ship, both of my kids asked when we can go on another cruise. Like we can just book one for next month…

Many, many weeks ago, I cashed in some of my 40,000+ FullTilt points for two books – “The Poker Mindset” and the FullTilt tournament strategy compendium with chapters written by all the famous poker immortals associated with FullTilt. I ordered these specifically with the thought that I would read these on the cruise.

The books did not arrive before we left for vacation. I said, “Dammit, these are the two books that I want to read on the vacation. Is that too much to ask?” So, I went and bought the FullTilt tournament book. I was able to read parts of a few chapters on the trip. Kids are time eaters, even on vacations. The Post-Flop NL chapter by Ted Forrest was great, and reinforces much of what I have written in this blog about feel for the game and the Zen mindset that can set in with deep concentration at the table.

Of course, when I got back from vacation, the two books that I had ordered from FullTilt had arrived. Some poker friend will be the recipient of a shiny copy of the FullTilt tournament book in the hear future…

*********

I can’t bring myself to spend 25,000 points and order a FullTilt jersey. But the football jersey would be cool. I would just feel like a complete geek wearing that in public, even thought I am, in all honesty, a complete poker and chip-collecting geek. It would be cool to have my name on the back, but it’s the logo thing on the front that would make me feel embarrassed. Unless I was playing at a final table at the WSOP and FullTilt was paying me to wear their logo. Maybe some day.

**********

I emptied my FullTilt account of everything but $2000 (voluntarily). Then I went on a bad streak and ran it down to around $700. Exactly $800 of the losses were due to two bad beats at the $2/4 NL tables. Upon further review, my official definition of a “bad beat” is when I lose a hand after getting all the chips in the pot as a 75% or greater favorite. I guess I should not be playing $2/4 NL when I only have 5 buy-ins, but I play better at a level that at least feels slightly meaningful.

So after I hit the $700 mark, I decided to play only $100 buy-in or higher SNGs. Again, not optimal bankroll management (for just my FullTilt bankroll), but what the hell. I play better when there is more at stake. I concentrate more carefully on each decision when I reach a certain cash threshold. As for SNGs, that threshold seems to be $100 for me.

I was playing well and got an average run of cards, and the FullTilt account is back to around $1400. Full recovery to $2000 is the goal, and then I’m going to try the Bad Bankroll Management Challenge.

***********

I really like the heads-up SNGs. I am involved in every hand and constantly make decisions. I like reading my opponents patterns. It’s the best way that I have found, on-line, to replicate what I like about live play – reading the opponent. At a full on-line table, the other players are just so many avatars. But heads-up, I can focus exclusively on one opponent and his patterns. I’ve had good success in heads-up play, and its more fun for me.

I like playing a single-table SNG and a heads-up SNG at the same time. The heads-up table takes enough of my concentration to ensure that I don’t get bored with the full table and play too many hands, or over play medium-strength hands. The heads-up table essentially provides more patience to wait for the best hands at the full table.

Even at the $100 SNG level, its amazing how many players still make huge mistakes. Like pushing 44 after an EP raise at the third level with an average-sized stack. Or pushing middle pair on the flop during the third level when the stack sizes still allow plenty of room to play.

A New Challenge

2007-08-19T17:54:00.000-04:00

I think I need a new poker challenge. With much of my on-line play, I kind of just sputter along. Over the several years that I’ve played, I am slowly, ever so slowly, building up a bankroll. But on-line is much harder than live play for me.

On three occasions in the past I’ve “taken a shot” at higher on-line limits -- $5/10 and $10/20NL. All three times, I had initial success and then dropped it all back. When giving it back, I’d fairly say that 50% was due to variance and 50% was due to bad play brought on by the variance.

I’m thinking of an accelerated “shot taking” chance. For example, start with a decent amount, like $500 (the “Starting Stake”), and put it all in play. Then, with each win, immediately put the Starting Stake plus all the Winnings from the Starting Stake in play. Instead of using good bankroll management with the Winnings, continue to push by putting the whole Starting Stake and all the Winnings in play. But never put in play more than the Starting Stake plus all Winnings. I will play mostly cash games, with some SNGs thrown in for variety.

If I crash, it would be like one losing session and I’m just out the Starting Stake. With solid play, I should be able to avoid a crash with anything but a bad beat. At least that’s the theory. I have the feeling that a lot of high stakes on-line players quickly built up this way.

I’ll set the goal at $10,000 -- if I can parlay the Starting Stake into $10,000, I will stop and go back to good bankroll management. (I might change my tune if this actually works and I hit something like the $5000 or $8000 mark. It would be difficult to set down at an on-line table with $5000+, but we’ll see what happens.)

I’d like to eventually be playing on-line for the same stakes as I do live, so there’s not so much disparity for me between on-line and live games. I pay more attention and play better when there is more at stake, which might explain why I often sputter along at the lower on-line stakes. Sitting down with $400 at a $2/4NL game and cashing out after an hour with $500 just doesn’t seem to have much pop when there is so much money in play on-line.

Busting the Boss

2007-08-19T17:40:00.000-04:00

Another Vegas tale. Playing with idiots is fun. In my last cash game session, I set one guy on super screaming monkey tilt without saying much of anything. He thought he was the Boss of the table from the moment he sat down. He was immediately spouting poker lingo, pot odds, math, and talking about pro players. He bought in for $400. I was way up by the time he sat down, so my range of PF hands was large at this point.

After he had won a pot or two, he raised in MP to $25. Everyone folded to me in the BB, and I called with T8s. This is my favorite hand. I have no idea why.

The flop is Th-Ts-6h. Bingo. I check. He bets $50, and it’s a bet of confidence. I can tell he’s 100% sure that he is ahead.

I raise to $150 total and stare at the felt in his direction. After about 10 seconds he shoves, and I can tell he still thinks he’s ahead. I call and immediately show my hand.

The Boss blows up, and the jibberish he started spouting made everyone laugh at the table. “Nice hand! Way to go! Great play! You hit your 42 to 1 against long shot! Nice play!”

He slaps AA on the table. Like I didn’t already know what he had. Then he continues.

“I’d say nice play, but it wasn’t! That was a horrible play!” He’s yelling everything. “Keep playing like that and I will bust you! Players like you pay my monthly salary! Keep it up!”

This guy plays like this for a living? Scary thought. The whole time I’m just stacking his chips, saying nothing. Then he asks, “Why’d you call with that hand?! What were you thinking?!”

Interesting question. The real answer should be obvious – I know what he had PF by his body language (AA, KK, QQ or AK), and that if I hit something good, I will take his whole stack. Against many other players, I would easily muck PF. Of course I can’t say this, so I just reply, “Its my favorite hand.” Also an honest answer, but he thinks that I am messing with him.

“Your favorite hand, huh?! Well, I had my favorite hand, too! Which hand was better?! Which one of us is better there, huh?”

I just finish my stacking and continue playing. During the next hand, I quietly repeat, “It really is my favorite hand.” He thinks I’m needling, and I am, sort of, but its still the truth.

Our conversation is over, but the Boss is just about as pissed as a player can be at the table. Its good to get the donks steamed. He rebought for $300.

I few orbits later, I busted him when I flopped two pair with T9 against his AK on a board of K-T-9. I had called his raise again PF, and a series of raises on the flop got all his chips in. He didn’t learn much from our prior battle. He shipped the remainder of his stack my way. “You’re just too good for me!” he yelled. “I can’t play with you any more! Shit!” He stomped off.

After the Boss left, the dealer said, “Thanks for getting rid of that guy. He’s an ass. We all hate him. He treats everyone like that.”

Another player at the table said, “He’ll have to go make his monthly salary somewhere else tonight.”

Patience, patience, patience

2007-08-02T01:35:00.000-04:00

Live Cash Game

I played in a live Ameristar $2/5 NL cash game last Friday, and came away with $1300 profit. My live game picked up where I left off in Vegas. I went into the session with the goal of continuing my focus and remaining patient, and it paid off. I started tight, then loosened up and pulled off some bluffs after I built up my tight image and a big stack.

I rarely overplayed a hand, and was very willing to release if I felt that I was beat. This is a significant adjustment for my cash game play. In the past, I think I would call down with inferior hands too much. Now, I keep reminding myself in tough situations that better opportunities will come along, and I save my chips for those moments.

I had a solid read on everyone at the table. I like live poker so much more than on-line, because of this main difference. There moments again where I knew exactly what my opponent was holding, or what another player held when I was not involved in a hand. Generally, it is much easier to read hands when you’re not involved and you can focus all of your attention on the read. When you’re involved in a hand, the distractions of running through calculations and the natural nervousness that comes with people watching you are distractions from reading your opponents hands.

With significant live practice, however, distractions during a hand are easier to block out. When I’m really relaxed and in the zone, there is no need to “block” anything out – instead I’m just 100% focused on the moment and reading what my opponent has, and I don’t have to run through any calculations or worry about people watching and waiting for my move. I’ve come to be very comfortable in these situations. I still see a lot of players get very nervous when the spotlight is on them during a hand, and you can see them tense up and lose the ability to focus on their decision.

Picking off the LAG

My patience paid off against one particular player. He sat down about an hour into the session, two to my left. So, I was horribly out of position against him. He was 20-something and seemed to be a walking advertisement for Nike, with a Nike hat, shirt and jacket. I named him Swoosh. He immediately started raising pre-flop nearly every hand, and made obvious continuation bets and bluffs on later streets. For a while, he got away with this and didn’t have to show down a hand.

His stack fluctuated wildly, and he eventually picked off some players for big pots with goofy hands. He’d hit two pair with K6, for example, that turned into a boat with another 6 on the river. Everyone had trouble putting him on hands and playing back at him. After about 2 hours, he’d built up a healthy stack, and my goal was to get it from him.

But, the opportunity never seemed to arise. He routinely called my PF raises when I had good hands, or he would make a big raise after I limped with several other limpers. I didn’t get frustrated, I just told myself to stay calm and wait for an opportunity. The hand started with all but two players limping to me in the SB. I called with 56o, a nearly useless hand except for straight potential. BB checked.

The flop was Q-3-4 rainbow. I decided to lead out for $25, specifically thinking that if I connected later I might win a decent pot against Qx. Swoosh called and everyone else folded, so I knew he had at least a Q. Would this be the hand that I’d get some of his chips?

The turn was (Q-3-4)-T, now with two spades. I bet $40, again with the specific thought that if I hit my hand would be completely disguised. Swoosh raised to $90. I put him on either two pair with QT or a draw with two spades or something like KJ or AJ. With a $50 call into a pot of about $215, my thought process remained the same – I’d either be folding on the river, or getting a lot more of his chips.

The river was a beautiful (Q-3-4-T)-7, no possible flush. My leads on the flop and turn actually paid off -- it seems like these are usually wasted bets, unless my opponent folds. There was virtually no way that he would guess my hand since I led out on the flop and the turn. It probably looked like I was betting something like KQ or QJ, possibly a flush draw on the turn. So, my only thought on the river was how much would he call?

I bet $80, which either looked like a blatant value bet or a weakfish bluff. He stared at me, and I decided that this was one situation where I should make direct eye contact and try to play some mind games. He was exactly the type of player that would read any confrontational non-verbal signals as a sign of weakness, forcing him to play back more aggressively. Strong means strong, but he would read it as strong means weak following classical tell literature.

He usually bet very quickly, but here he paused for a while during this staring contest. To my surprise, he raised $120.

Wow. This was completely unexpected. I double-checked – I do have the nuts, right? Yes. We continued our staring game while I tried to figure out how much more he would call. I raised another $150. My initial $80 river bet had grown to $350 total.

Swoosh had about $600 more behind, and I had him covered. He started fumbling around with chips, and it looked like he was trying to put together $150 in red and green. Then he just jammed all the chips together and pushed everything in.

I couldn’t call quickly enough and flip over my cards. Showing 56o for the nuts put the frighteners on everyone, and I was able to run the table after that because I could be holding any two cards. A player at the other end later said that Swoosh had Q4 -- what the hell does he beat after I put in the third bet on the river? He slow played himself to death.

The next day, I went and bought one of these with some of the winnings at Best Buy:

Internet Play

As good as my live play has been going, I am running exactly the opposite on-line. During my first session after the Vegas trip, I played several SNGs and was crippled or knocked out of five in a row when I got my all chips in as about a 75% favorite or better. The first two SNGs I lost with AQ vs A7 and AK vs AQ. No big deal.

But, this trend continued. I ended up running several hands on PokerStove just to make sure I wasn’t losing it and overestimating my edge. It was an amazingly horrific series of beats. The session ended when I was knocked out as a 92% favorite against a 4-outer on the river. Incredibly frustrating, but nothing that I can do in these situations. I just hate it when beats bunch up and make me feel like I’ve completely lost the ability to play poker. Could someone please make the bad beats spread out a bit more?

So, switch to on-line cash games. I am reminded that live play ruins my on-line play. I rely heavily on my reads in live games, so much of what I base my decisions on in live games is completely lost on-line. Its like I have to re-learn how to play on-line cash games after playing mostly live. Without live reads, I find myself lost at times when faced with a crucial but close decisions. On-line, I lean more toward calling rather than folding because the players are much more loose overall. Combine this with a beating in SNGs, and the picture starts to look bleak.

Live upswing = on-line downswing. Frustrating when I know that I won’t get to play live again for quite a while.

We're supposed to be having fun.

2007-07-24T01:36:00.000-04:00

I watched as much of the WSOP Main Event final table, live, as time would allow that evening. Overall, I was tremendously disappointed. The players were far too stoic to make for good viewing. Nothing against the players or their style, just not good to watch.

For me, poker is a hobby. Poker is a card game. Poker is fun. I realize that there are many players that make their living playing poker. Good for them. But, I will never do that. Even if I make a huge hit in a tournament at some point and win life-changing money, poker will still be my hobby.

Consequently, when I see players claiming that God answered their prayers and brought a set on the flop or a winning pair on the river, poker ceases to be fun. Its fine that some players make a living at the game, or that they are winning enough to allow them to quit their jobs, but don’t lose the humor. Don’t lose the fun.

Take baseball. Its is a game that is fun to play and watch. There are many people that make their living from baseball, but at that level its still a game that is played for viewing entertainment. When players lose site of the fact that it’s a game played for entertainment, the game ceases to be fun for the viewers.

When it comes to poker, I want to see leather-assed Texas road gamblers. I want to see Scandinavian uber-nerds that employ bizarre games-theory techniques. I want to see Vegas rounders that are living from tournament to tournament. I want to see professional gamblers that are gambling. I want to see wealthy Iranian and Israeli guys with thick accents needling their opponents to gamble it up. I want to watch loud Americans with swollen egos that think they are the center of the universe. I do not want to watch or play with stoic monks that pray for God to alter the order of the cards so that they can provide a better life for their family. That’s a virtuous endeavor with plenty of merit, but its not fun poker, either in person or on TV.

Each player is free to play the game as he wishes, but that doesn’t mean that I have to like it. A selfish but honest perspective.

Vegas 2007

2007-07-17T00:09:00.000-04:00

Vegas trip, June 28-July 1. A trip report that is out of order.

Achieving Zen

I’ll start the Vegas report at the end. During my last session on Saturday night, for about five hours in the $2/5 NLHE Venetian cash games, I finally reached what for me is the perfect Zen state of poker. I was in a zone that I have been trying to achieve since I started playing this game as a serious hobby. I was perfectly focused and locked onto everyone at the table. I knew exactly where I was in every hand. I knew when I was ahead and when I was behind, and I almost always knew when another player had a better hand but I could make him lay it down. I can recall only one hand where I won a sizable pot with luck.

I bought in for $1000. After about an hour I was up several hundred. Then things just took off. I hit some big hands to take a few players’ stacks of around $300-$400. Then I became more active, playing a wider range of hands pre-flop and occasionally hitting some boards in the range that no one else was playing.

I still maintained a fairly tight image, and I did not become a chip-spewing maniac. I would fold for extended periods when I got bad cards. I would bet or raise when I thought I was ahead or needed to see where I was at. I yielded to aggression when I felt that I was behind, unless I felt that I could steal. I focused on staying tight, in the sense that I refused to pay off in big pot with a strong second-best hand. I think the most that I ever put into a pot which I later abandoned was maybe $150. I did not double anyone up.

You Don’t Pay Off

There was one very solid player at my table on Saturday night whom I sat next to for several hours on Friday night. He was playing similar to my style, but he probably had a bit more gamble. He was easily the best $2-5 NL player I encountered on my trip.

A good portion of the Saturday night Chip Fortress came from his stack. After the Chip Fortress started to take shape, I too some big pots off of him. The pattern became this: he and I would take from the other players, and then I would take some more from him. At one point the commented, “I think half of your stack came from me.” He was right -- he was doing a serious amount of chip collecting, and then delivering to me.

Mid-way through the session, he started commenting about how he was paying me off for my big hands, but I was not paying him off in return. My response was, “I know when I am beat.” That was probably the key to maintaining my focus and resisting the temptation to give back to the table. When you build up a big stack in a live cash game, its easy to give a lot back because (1) you loosen up and (2) you feel somewhat obligated to spread the love around to keep the action lively.

Is the Stack too big?

After I crossed the $2500 mark, the thought occurred to me that I might be killing the action with a monster stack. Its one thing to build up an intimidating stack in a tournament, when no one can move. In a cash game players can leave whenever they want, and some players don’t like to play against someone who has a dominating stack.

It was clear that I was not freely giving chips back to the table. I started to wonder whether I would kill the action. But that question was continually answered throughout the session – players kept playing back at me, and I kept collecting chips.

Remembering Zen

I’m sure I will have future sessions where I completely lose the ability to read the players and get in a zone. Here are a few of the key things that I remember about this session --

I almost never spoke during a hand, unless it was to tell someone what I thought they had before I folded in a heads-up pot. I’d say something like, “You must have hit your set. OK, I’ll give you credit.” Sometime this would get a verbal response, or they would just show me their hand. The thing was, I hardly ever said what I actually thought they had -- I would just call out a very strong hand, and then see how they responded. If they showed me, fabulous. If not, I still had a good sense by their reaction if I was right or not. It was a great way to gather information. Deep down, I think that most players don’t like to be called bluffers (i.e. “liars”) when they are not, and many will expose their hand to prove that they were strong and not bluffing. This is probably much more the case in cash games than in tournaments.

I hardly ever made eye contact during a hand. I used my peripheral vision a lot. I was almost always looking at the felt between the betting lines on the table, and no higher than players’ hands. I did not look at faces or make eye contact. I discovered (or rediscovered?) that I can get almost all of the information that I need from a player by watching their hands and arms, general body position, and just getting an overall sense of their strength. Kind of like “reading their aura.” That sounds really silly as I write it, but that’s what it was -- I could just tell where a person was in the hand by staying relaxed and letting all of the information that they were giving off flow to my read. The true Zen state of poker. Its very hard to describe, but it was completely working for me.

I paid attention when I was not involved in a hand. I watched people as the hand played out. I would try to guess a player’s strength. I would watch the player and ask “Did he like the flop, or not?” Then, if there was a showdown, I would see if I was right or not. This is what I like most about poker – watching players and making reads.

Response to the Chip Fortress

After the stack grew to multiple players, the rock to my right named it the Chip Fortress. I saw an interesting dynamic taking place during the last half of my session. As players busted out and new players came into the game, they eyeballed the Fortress. Nearly everyone had one of responses: (1) they were scared and requested a seat change; (2) they were amped at the opportunity to win lots of chips from me. It was comical -- about half of the players who sat down would say within one orbit “Seat change button!” This was new to me.

Rock on the Right

So, the players that stayed were eager to make a play for the big kill. Some were super-LAG, trying to get me to open up my game or frustrate me. Some were TAG, waiting for a hand to bust me. There was one guy to my immediate right all night who was a complete rock. A giant granite boulder. He was sitting on around $1800 all night after making two huge hits early on. This was perfect, because I knew exactly where he was all night long -- he was 100% predictable. And, he had the shakes when he got a good hand. Only the players not paying attention tangled with him. And, there was a third level of thinking between us -- he knew that I knew that he was a rock, and he knew that I knew where he was in a hand. Does that make sense? So, I had the ability to raise him off a hand – when I played back at him, he would give me credit for knowing that he was strong. I only did it 2 or 3 times, but it was effective. Fun stuff.

Do I have to leave?

The hour passed Midnight. I was running so well that I did not want to leave this table. But, I had to get up around 5am on Sunday morning to catch my painfully early flight home. I had about two hours at home to repack, and then load the kids in the van and head to St. Louis for three nights. Pulling an all-nighter would mean pain for several days. I just can’t do that anymore.

What to do? If this session happened on Friday night, I absolutely would have stayed at the table as long as possible. I would have played until I lost my ability to focus. I heard Phil Ivey say on TV one time that one of the biggest mistake many players make is leaving a cash game too early, while the table was still good, in order to lock in profits.

But, I had to stop. It was a decision made for the benefit of my family, more than anything else. I didn’t want them to have to put up with tired, cranky dad. But, I just could not lose at this table. As I started racking up my chips, I continued to play. After the chips were fully racked, I decided to play to the button. UTG, I raised to $20, got one caller, led out on the flop and won the pot. In the BB, I checked after several limpers, led out on the flop after flopping top pair with QJ and won the pot. I folded the SB, then finished the session by winning the pot with a pre-flop raise on the button. Its never been so hard to leave a table! I cashed in +$3200 for the session.

Venetian Tournaments

The First Tournament

I arrived early on Thursday to play in the noon Venetian Deep Stack Tournament. I registered at the hotel, dropped my stuff off in the room, and proceeded directly to the tournament sign-up counter at the back of the poker room.

I received a card with the number “242” scribbled in black marker. I was alternate #242. You’re kidding me, right? I arrived early to play in this tournament, a field of 480 players already have a seat, and I have to wait until 242 players bust out before I can even get a seat? Fuck that.

Backup Plan -- I’ll just play in the Venetian cash games after I grab some lunch. No, sorry, all tables in the Venetian will close at 11:30am because they are devoted to the tournament. And, since about half of the bustouts will be filled with alternates, there will be no tables available for the cash games until around 3:30 or 4pm. Fuck that, too.

Backup Plan B – relax at the Venetian pool for two hours, hit the cash games at the Mirage late afternoon, and then proceed as the Vegas winds blow.

Okay, the First Tournament

I won a few hundred at the Mirage NL cash games on Thursday afternoon, then signed up for the 8pm Venetian tournament. Its not a “Deep Stack” tournament, but you still start with about 80BB, so its not bad. First significant hand – I flop a set of nines on an 983 board. I use Jedi mind tricks to get the PF raiser to commit his stack on the flop with QQ. Q hits on the turn, and I am crippled. Being a 92% favorite is not good enough on-line or in Vegas, apparently.

Second significant hand – I push 1500 at the 100/200 level with QQ, and BB calls with A8o. What a donk. An ace hits on the river. Live poker is completely rigged. I go to bed.

The Second Tournament

On Friday morning, I hit the Venetian NL cash tables at 9:30am. I won a few hundred. I signed up for the noon $500+ tournament the night before, so I had a seat at noon.

The room was packed. Poker players were swarming everywhere. Dozens of alternates were clustered at the back, waiting for a seat. Poker is fun for everyone.

We start with 10,000 chips and 25/50 blinds, for a starting stack of 200BBs. Very cool. Despite the deep stacks, I quickly notice something very odd. Everyone was playing artificially aggressive. What I mean by “artificial” is that most of the players aren’t really capable of playing a good LAG game, and are weak-tighties, but they believe that they must play a LAG style because this is the “correct tournament strategy” despite stack size. So, the range of raising and calling hands was immediately larger than it really should have been when everyone still had a deep stack.

I did not adjust correctly. I loosened up a bit, but I flopped absolutely nothing. I was down to 7500 when the blinds hit 100-200. As my stack dwindled by playing solid starting hands that never connected, I was quickly forced to push with QQ into AA and was out before 2pm.

Tournament Observations

The Venetian has scored huge on this tournament series. They have perfectly tapped into a swelling market. There are lots of decent players that want deep stack tournament poker which is lower on the luck factor, with reasonable buy-ins that still produce a healthy prize pool. For $500+, you get 200BB to start and a chance to cash for $100,000+.

But, I don’t like the payout structure. Its way too top-heavy. Despite starting fields of 500+, including alternates, they only pay 40 spots. And, 40 through 25 or so only pays a few hundred above the buy-in. You have to go really deep to even hit a 2x buy-in profit. I guess this allows them to publish the big 1st place payouts at $100,000+.

The players reaction to this shallow pay-out structure is to chop as soon as possible. The big story at the Venetian was how they were getting ridiculous chops early in the tournament. I heard at least four dealers tell the story about the tournament a few days before I arrived -- they had a 32-player even chop for something like $6000 per player. The story was that, shortly after they hit four tables, some guy yells out, “If we chop now, we all get $6000.” Everyone looked around at stack sizes, and said, “We’ve been at this for 11 hours. That doesn’t sound too bad.” So the tournament ended at four tables remaining.

The place was swarming with packs of guys from Europe. An army of Gus Hansen wannabes. I played with guys from Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Holland. They seemed to travel in packs of four or five. They were all 22 or younger. They all had backpacks and jackets. They all drank Red Bull or Green Tea. They all had big headphones that were permanently resting on their shoulders. They were all pale white, but usually in good physical condition. They all needed a haircut. They would typically gather behind one of their brethren who was sitting in a cash game, and proceed to work themselves into a frenzied poker conversation in German, Dutch, or whatever the hell language they were speaking. I could tell it was poker talk because occasionally I would recognize an English word or phrase thrown in like “turn cahd,” “beht,” “spaides” or “I donknow vat he was tingking by calling hees stack wit a backdoow floish dwaa.” They were focusing on tournaments and playing in cash games when they busted out. I took one German guy for about $350 in a $2/5 NL game, but that was the extent of my confrontations with them.

Bad Cash Game Hand

Okay, not everything was roses in Vegas. For the trip, I won several thousand, but I made my share of bad plays along the way. Here’s one hand that still makes me mad –

Friday morning Venetian $2/5 NL cash game, about 11 am. Table is running very loose for a morning session, with no drinkers. Soon after I sat down, I hit a big hand. I called a standard raise to $20 in late position with 77 and was heads up against a 40ish dude that looked too serious. The flop was A-8-7. He bet out $30, I raised to $90, he raised to $190, and I pushed. He had another $350 or so and I covered, so it took him about two minutes to call off the rest of his chips. Based on how long he took, I was 100% sure that I was ahead and he probably had AK or AQ, maybe A8. I turned my hand up on the table, showing trips. The turn was A-8-7-7, and the table gasped at quads.

A few orbits later, I called a raise to $20 in the CO with 98s. Three players to the flop of 9-8-K. Original raiser was a young, nervous looking dude, and he bet out for $50. Based on his style, he still had a wide range of hands here, and I read this as a continuation bet. Player between us folded, and I raised to $125. Nervous Dude thinks for a while, then just calls. At this point him on a draw or top pair with a mid-kicker, like maybe KQ. The pot was now about $310.

Turn was 9-8-K-T. Nervous Dude checked. I asked him to raise his hands so I could get a look at his stack. As he did this, my read was that he was not checking with the intention of check-raising. My read was that I still had the best hand. It appeared that he had about $320 or so left in his stack. I thought about how much to bet, and here’s where I made my mistake.

I wanted to make a bet that made this the “pressure point” of the hand. I didn’t want to push and scare him completely away, but I wanted the bet to be big enough so that if he wanted to continue, he would have to just push. So, I bet $180, a little more than half of his remaining stack.

He thought for a long time, and was clearly troubled by the decision. Then he just called.

River was 9-8-K-T-J, no flush possible. He checked, and still looked nervous. I pushed, and he immediately looked exasperated. He thought I hit a straight. It was another $140 for him to win $670. He called and showed JT for a better two pair. I mucked.

I’ve re-run the hand in my head numerous times – I raised on the flop with the best hand and bet on the turn with the best hand. I am still kicking myself for not just pushing on the turn. My intention was to bet enough on the turn to signal that we were playing for his stack, but my bet was not enough to deter just a call. Then he was priced into any bet on the river with just about any sort of hand, even one pair. Next time in this type of situation, I push the turn. I’m sure he would have folded one pair. If he calls my push and draws out, I can live with that result.

I just hate my play in this hand. I gave back almost all of the profit from my earlier quads hand.

The Venetian

Among the Venetian, the Wynn and the Bellagio, the Venetian wins the poker competition. The staff at the Venetian act like they want the business from poker players. They know that there is stiff competition for poker traffic right now, and they have stepped it up a notch. The tournaments are well run. The room is huge, and there is space between the tables to move. They fill tables very fast. The dealers are solid and keep the action moving. A lot of the dealers are also players, and some even play in the Venetian tournaments. The location on the Strip is great. Overall, this is where I prefer to stay and play.

Vegas Cash Games at WSOP Time, Baby!

2007-07-02T17:15:00.000-04:00

Back from Vegas. Donkaments suck, cash games rule. This pic of The Chip Fortress, as it was duly named in a Venetian $2/5NLHE session, pretty much sums up the trip. Cash game action was Fan-tastic. For me, there is nothing better in poker than building up a massively intimidating 600+BB stack in a cash game. More later when I have time.

I Don't Wanna Stop

2007-06-19T23:27:00.000-04:00

Random poker observations and thoughts and ideas:

Poker After Dark -- Finally new episodes. The table this week is pretty cool -- G. Hansen, D. Benyanine, P. Antonius, D. Negreanu, M. Traniello, B. Booth.

Booth is blowing up before our very eyes. He gains at least 10 pounds every time he appears on TV. The black shirts only hide so much.

I am coming to the realization that Benyamine may have more game than anyone we have seen in a long time. But he could blow up, too, even more.

All the players are betrothed to Full Tilt. Me too. I saw it coming. Maybe it was all the TV ads.

Speaking of Full Tilt, I have decided to stick to the lower level games in my tired, end-of-the-day poker zombie state. $1/2NL is my foundation. I've cleared about $1500 in the last two weeks. Its hard to lose in this game with patience and TAG play.

Speaking of TAG play, I am firmly of the belief that solid TAG play is the antidote to LAG and HAG play that is prevalent on-line. No one notices if you play TAG on-line. They notice in live play. The LAGs and HAGs still call my raises on-line when I raise UTG after folding 28 hands straight. Might as well play the nuts and rake the profits.

Speaking of raking profits, I am back to the Running Back Plan. I leave the table when I make a 2% bankroll profit, and then open another table with the max buy-in. For those of you that know what the hell the Running Back Plan actually means, congratulations. I 'took a shot' at higher on-line levels a about a month ago. One bad beat and on bad play = bad results for the on-line bankroll. The Running Back Plan is slow, but it rules.

I am curious who actually reads this blog. I have no links from anywhere, as far as I know, except a few links on my ever-decreasing Chiptalk posts.

The Tao of Poker is my lifeline to the WSOP. I read Pokernews and Cardplayer, and all the WSOP tournament results are a blur. There are too many events to even follow. The volume of tournaments dilutes the significance of each event. Joe Koozeface won the 2110-field $2000 NLHE event. Waahoo.

I continue to be disappointed that I do not have more time to give myself a chance at winning some major money at poker. I know that I am smarter than the majority of poker players, a boldly arrogant statement. But good poker players are supposed to be arrogant, right? I have worked on my live reads and concentration as much as possible. I continue to feel that I could make tons of money in poker, if only I had the time and energy to devote.

When a player folds and says "Good bluff!" they always have a medium strength hand that probably should have called and are absolutely dying to see what their opponent actually had. I know, cause I've said it.

Play on.

Vegas again, Baby!!

2007-06-12T22:37:00.000-04:00

In two weeks and two days, I will be in Vegas, Baby! I am staying at the Venetian. The tentative schedule:

Thursday, Noon -- Venetian $300+ Deepstack tournament.

If I crap out of that early, Bellagio $1000+ tournament at 8pm.

Friday, Noon -- Venetian Deepstack tournament, unless I qualify for the final table of the Venetian tournament from Thursday, which would start at 4pm. OR, I might hit the WSOP on this day. I would try to sat into the NLHE tournament, or I might actually try the 7-stud HL tournament. I like this game, and have performed well when I have played this game. My only issue is whether I could see all the cards, with my bad eyes.

If I crap out of these options, the Bellagio $1000+ tournament at 8pm on Friday is always an option, or possibly the Rio cash games.

In between tournaments, as much NL cash games as I can possibly play, since the NL games during the WSOP are fantastically donkarific.

My long term goal is to build up a substantial bankroll to hit the WSOP Main Event in 2009 with enough to also play the bigger cash games. I am aggressive, but also a realist. I've decided that I need to keep hitting the smaller tournaments and cash games when they are juicy, which means WSOP time.

Also, I think that I am the only poker blogger that does not have a single link from anyone else's blog. I'm kinda proud of that.

A poker ninja blogger.

Gut Push

2007-06-04T01:27:00.000-04:00

I watched a good part of the Cubs game on Saturday with my 4-year old son. Watching baseball is rare these days, due to soccer, basketball, T-ball, softball, general playtime outside and lots of other weekend activities. I'm a lifelong Cubs fan, and my son announced that he likes all the teams that I like. Cool. We also built a dragster with K'Nex during the game.

We watched the Pinella tirade at 3rd base, when he got booted. My son thought that these antics were very odd, but entertaining. "Daddy, why is he kicking his own hat?"

Today, they announced that Pinella was suspended indefinitely. Commentators and Pinella himself said that there was no contact with the ump. But there was -- I'll bet it will come out that the "contact" was Pinella's giant gut pushing against the ump!!

Vegas, baby

2007-05-26T12:39:00.000-04:00

I started the Vegas report soon after I returned in February, but got sidetracked with work, life and playing poker.

********************

Wynn Tournaments

Overall, these were uneventful tournaments in which I gained zero traction. I lasted through the mid-levels, but was forced to push with mediocre hands and busted. Waaa.

In my first tournament, I sat down next to Michael Craig, the author of “The Professor, the Banker and the Suicide King.” I recognized him immediately when I sat down. The conversation went something like this:

“You look familiar. You write about poker, right?”

“Yes.”

“Where have I seen your work?” He mentions the book.

“I really enjoyed that book.”

“Thanks. It was one year ago today that the Ivey match with Beal started.” He motions in the direction of the poker room to indicate where the game happened. We are seated in an area of the main gaming floor which is occupied by several dozen tournament tables. He also mentioned a book that he is writing with the Full Tilt pros, which he expected to be in print by the WSOP.

I ask a few questions about the Ivey-Beal match and his experience, but his answers were short and clipped. This conversation occurred between hands, and it seemed as though he didn’t want to talk much. I can respect that, because I am very quiet at the tables and don’t care for much chatter when I am playing.

Overall, the experience was much less enjoyable than I would have expected. I would assume that a poker writer would be willing to talk about poker and his book, but apparently not Mr. Craig. He came across as someone who is really into the poker scene, but doesn’t really have time to be bothered by someone who is not a famous player or a pro. He treated me like I was just another schlub at the table.

***************

Wynn Cash Games – Day 1-2

I played in the $2/5NL cash games a lot in between the Wynn tournaments, and won my buy-ins back plus about another $1000 during the first 36 hours of my stay. The games were fairly soft, and the good players were easy to spot and avoid. There were a lot of 20-ish cowboys that liked to play a blind straddle, and then re-pop no matter what from UTG when it got back to them pre-flop. I took advantage of this twice by deep-limping with KK and AA, and stacked one player with this move.

****************

Venetian -- The Cash Game Run Begins

At 10:30am on Saturday, I was seated at the only $2/5 NL game running at the Venetian. It played big and surprisingly loose for the early hour, mainly because the table seemed to be populated by players that had been up all night. Except for me. The stacks ranged from $400 to $2500. I bought in for $1000. I’d been at the table for 20 minutes, and played maybe 2 hands, when this hand occurred...

I was UTG with 5s5h and raised to $20. Folded to BB (what, do I appear to be that much of a rock?), and BB just called with around $600 behind. BB had been talking to the guy on his right, and I could tell they are both solid, strategic, experiences players based on their analysis of players at the other end of the table. BB took a little bit to call, and possibly he was thinking about a re-raise.

Flop was 4h-Td-Kc. BB checked and I bet $30. BB thought a bit and called. I got the vibe that he was probably ahead with a better pair, and was probably not on a draw. Maybe something like AK, JJ or 99.

Turn was (4h-Td-Kc)-5c. An unexpected gin! I always look for the set on the flop, but for some reason I am always shocked when it hits on the turn – if I’m still in the hand.

BB checked again. I thought a bit and bet $80. BB raised $200 more, and it looked like a bet of confidence. In fact, it dawned on me that he was probably setting me up all along for the turn check-raise. If I just called, the pot would have been $660. He had around $270 left, so I was not going to fold on the river if he pushed. I paused for a while to make him think I had a tough decision, acted like I’m was counting things up, and then announce that I’m all in.

BB cursed and spun around in his chair. He faced away from the table and hunched over. He spun back around and was clearly agonized and angry about the decision. I was about 95% sure of what I was about to see, since I had done this to myself before.

He called and turned over AA. My set held up on the river.

**********************

The Venetian Tournament

I was a bit aggravated with my performance in the Wynn tournaments, so coming into the Venetian tournament, I made the decision to shift into a higher LAG gear with the Venetian deep stack tournament. I wanted to play this one different that my usual tournament strategy. The plan in my head went something like this:

1. In MP or later, when its folded to me PF, I will raise regardless of my hand. If I get re-raised PF (a) when I have junk, I will fold, (b) when I have anything playable, I will call, (c) with a premium hand, I will re-raise.

2. I will regularly fire continuation bets and play aggressive when the cards come out. The goal was to really ramp up the aggression.

3. Build a big stack early or move on to the cash games.

A lot of players say that they don’t come into a tournament with any sort of plan. Now I know why. My plan was foiled because I kept getting medium and baby pocket pairs. Tons of ‘em. During the first two levels, I remember receiving these starting hands:

22 - 2
33 - 1
44 - 2
55 - 3
77 - 2
88 - 1

The string of PPs was amazing. Since I hit the big hand at the Venetian cash game right before the tournament started, I thought that maybe it was an omen for the luck that I would realize with all these starting PPs.

So, if there was a raise in front of me, I called with a lil’ PP. If it was folded to me, I raised with a lil’ PP. When I open-raised and it was re-raised, I called with my lil’ PP. I decided to see every flop with any PP, regardless of the cost. The way that the table was playing, if I hit even one big hand with a set, I would have vaulted to the chip lead at the table.

Absolutely nothing panned out. No sets. Not even a straight draw. Every single flop missed my lil’ PP in every way. When I took a shot on the flop or after with my lil’ PP, I got called. So, by the end of the second round, I had pissed away nearly my entire stack. The cash games were calling, which is a bad mind-set for a tournament. I went out in a blaze of glory after 5 limpers by pushing a stack of about 2500 with 87s.

I really wish I could play this Venetian tournament table again with more patience, because there were some real donks at that table. Of course, I probably looked like, and truly played like, the biggest donk of everyone, based on the way I ended up playing my hands and busting out first from my table. If this had been the first tournament on my trip, and I hadn’t come into the tournament with a specific “strategy,” I definitely would have played differently.

*****************

A Huge Wynn?

I had played in several sessions at the $2/5 NL tables, and except for the occasionally solid or tricky player, the competition was fairly easy to read. After a few profitable sessions, I decided to step up to the $5/10 NL game.

This felt like wading into a deep pool of sharks. There is no max buy-in at the Wynn NL games. At the $2/5 NL game, it was a sea of red chips and some green. At the $5/10 NL table, you see the full range of colors and wads of cash. Some players were sitting with $5000 or more – mountains of red topped by black and green. Back home, I’d played in several $5/10 NL games, but the max buy-in was $1000 because of the silly Missouri loss-limit rules.

So, sitting down at this table felt, in some ways, like my first few no limit sessions. It’s the intoxicating mix of tremendous excitement and sheer terror. But, after a few tight orbits, I adjusted and settled in.

The villain in question was the kind of maniac that that you see every so often at the tables. He was 25-ish, talkative, antsy, and raised pre-flop in 90% of all pots. He would open raise to $40, or raise after limpers to $70-80. He would raise from MP, the button and the BB with equal consistency. Position meant nothing to him, as far as raising PF was concerned. He was a regular, knew lots of people in the casino, and within my first hour at the table had invited three people to the parking lot to share a joint (with no takers). Spliff the HAG.

Spliff’s stack swung from large to huge, and bet on the flop and after with as much frequency as he raised pre-flop. On the occasion that he got called on the river after wild betting, he showed either medium strength hands (sometimes winners) or complete junk.

I sat with $1500 an had run my stack up to about $2500 after about 2 hours of play. Spliff had about $4000 or so.

The hand:
Spliff raises UTG to $40. One MP caller, and I have JJ on the button. I raise to $155 total. Spliff calls, and MP calls. There is more potential cash involved in this hand than any hand I’ve ever played before. Time to dial it up a notch. Pot is $480.

The flop is 8h-7s-6h. Spliff opens for $300. MP folds.

Now, the problem is that Spliff could have just about anything. His range of hands, even after this bet, is still huge. I can rule out the premium pocket pairs AA and KK because I really think he would have re-raised me PF with another player in between us. What hands could he have that beat me right now? QQ, T9, 88, 77, 66 and 54 are all possibilities. But so are any two hearts, as well as any two random cards, because he has shown the propensity to play complete junk with exactly this sized bet on exactly this type of flop.

So what’s my read of him? He’s staring at me, kind of bouncing in his seat, and I get the vibe that he is trying to intimidate. After a bit, I get the strong sense that he is simply trying to buy the pot, and I am ahead. There’s no particular tell, just a strong feeling. Time to trust my read and my instincts.

I raise to $800 total. He quickly counts out the call in red stacks, and slides them in. I sense that he’s already preparing to bet the turn, because he’s kind of eyeballing the remainder of my stack as the dealer collects the pot together. The pot is around $2080, and I have about $1550 left.

The turn is [8h-7s-6h]-2c. This doesn’t appear to change anything. He says, “I’ll put it all in,” and starts moving his chips, stack by stack, in front of him.

Gulp. Time for a serious gut-check. Several thoughts and questions flash through my mind at once. This is the biggest pot of my life. Was my read wrong? Am I walking into a monster? Or, as I initially felt, is he just trying to bully me out of the pot? What does he have? A set?

Time to calm down. Everyone at the table is quiet, watching me or Spliff. They’ve been waiting for this type of confrontation involving Spliff. Let’s take things one step at a time. The pot is over $3600, matching his push against my remaining stack. What is my read of this play? Two clear thoughts occur to me. First, my read on the flop was that this fit his usual pattern of bullying with junk. I got the strong read that he was not ahead, and was continuing with his normal bluff game.

Second, and more importantly, what does he think of my play? He probably thinks that I’m a rock, and that I can be pushed around. I’ve played relatively tight so far. I’ve only produced solid hands at the showdown. He does not think that I connected with that board. He thinks that I think that the flop could have hit him in many ways. In fact, based on my PF raise, he thinks that I have exactly what I have -- a strong but vulnerable starting hand that did not connect.

Then, its suddenly like I can read his thoughts -- he thinks that I have exactly QQ or JJ. Its like I can read his mind. This is exactly how he would play against a tight-aggressive player that he puts on QQ or JJ with that board, and he knows that I would be scared of that board and his bet, and that I should lay down just one pair. After what seems like five minutes, but is maybe only 60 seconds, I decide to go with my read.

This is the roller coaster that has reached the peak, and freezes just before plummeting. My stomach is in my throat. I call.

The dealer quickly deals the river before either of us act -- [8h-7s-6h-2c]-8c. Spliff looks at me without turning over his hand and loudly says, “Two pair.”

Oh shit, I’m beat. That’s my first thought. I’m staring at the board. Everyone is staring at us. Then it occurs to me that I also have two pair. “Me too,” I say.

Spliff sort of waves his cards in the air but doesn’t turn them over. I’m waiting, and suddenly I forget the rules. He has to show first, right? Yeah, but he’s not tabling his hand. So, I just turn my hand face up on the table. Everyone at the table, and several that I finally notice who have gathered around the table, all in unison crane their necks at my pair of jacks.

Spliff slaps his cards face down in the general direction of the pot. “What a fucking horrible call!” he yells, and stomps away from the table. The dealer collects his hand into the muck, and starts pushing what seems like all of the chips in the entire casino in my direction. I have just won a $3600+ pot.

I start stacking chips, which takes two phases -- assembling the chip buildings, and then arranging my little chip city. I love chips. This goes on for about three or four more hands. I’m in a daze. Spliff has returned to his seat and is still bitching about what a horrible call I made. After a few more hands he wanders off to take a break.

I finally ask to the guy that saw his hand, “What did he have?” He replies, “Pocket fours.”

So, in the end, I basically just sniffed out a bluff, but holy shit was it scary. This is the hand that really taught me to trust my reads, at least in cash games.

Zen Focus

2007-05-21T00:48:00.000-04:00

If you are following along with this blog, one theme that you will see bubbling up more frequently is the idea that my poker results are now almost always the direct result of my focus. The more focused I am at the game, the better I play and the better my results. On certain rare occasions, I have been keenly focused and it has felt as if the game was flowing through me -- I could tell exactly where I was in each hand, and it is like a sixth sense had developed that was telling me what to do with incredible precision.

From poker, I am better able to "read" people in everyday life. Its not poker, per se, put a skill that I have developed from playing poker. I am frequently telling my wife that I can almost feel or 'hear' what another person is thinking. (There have been a few times where I was 'reading' the other person so well, it scared me. I haven't really told anyone about this in any detail.) This happens when I am focused on the moment, and not thinking about the past or the future. The nature of my profession requires a lot of planning and thinking about the next meeting, activity, due date, etc., but I am best able to communicate with, and sometimes 'read', other people when I am completely in the moment.

I encountered two things today that drive this point home:

1. On some poker show that I caught today (the 2004 WSOP Tournament of Champions, I think) Howard Lederer was talking about his effort at Zen focus. He said that he was concentrating more on being 100% in the moment at the poker table. Not thinking about the past, the future, or anything surrounding the poker table, but instead focusing his energy 100% within the confines of the poker table. When I saw this, I said out loud to no one, "Yes, that's exactly it."

2. The following is copied directly from Shaniac's blog, posted on March 6, 2007, and is a perfect summary of what I think it takes to play great poker:

"As cliché as it sounds, maintaining a good mental balance is the one true key to performing consistently well in tournaments. There are hundreds of excellent tournament players out there, and most of them are familiar with a similar range of strategic poker concepts. But I think it's a level of Zen-like focus, a real inner calm, that allows the best players (like JC Tran, Nam Le, the Grinder, and, recently, Paul Wasicka) to put up incredible results over and over. That psychological fortitude is much harder to achieve than, say, a basic grasp of Game Theory, and that is why tournaments, while challenging and rooted in luck, are still profitable and fun: in any given event, some percentage of the expert players simply aren't "in the zone" and therefore aren't giving themselves the necessary edge to win."

Monthly Blog Dump

2007-05-20T08:17:00.000-04:00

I’ve been typing these posts in Word over the last few weeks. Rather than posting periodically, I’ve collected them. And now, I take a blog dump for your reading pleasure.

Random but Useful Poker Thoughts

Whenever I have to think for a long time about whether I should call a big bet, I am almost always behind. Like 99% of the time. If I can make a decision to call quickly, I am usually right.

Practice at a full cash table erodes my ability to play at 6-seat tables. I should practice both more often, in order to make the adjustment better. I played in a 6-seat table this last weekend [several weeks ago], and I found myself folding way too much and getting completely run over by re-raises pre-flop. When I played a hand to showdown, the starting-hand quality of the PF re-raiser was amazingly poor. I give way too much credit to a PF re-raiser in a 6-seat game.

Whenever I need to regain my balance or confidence in cash games, there is one solution that always works for me: tighten up. If I tighten up for a brief period (like a session or two, or maybe the first half of each new session), it’s usually a solid way to drag a few pots (although less frequently) and regain confidence. There are times, after taking a series of beats, where my sole goal is to simply win a pot and leave the table on the plus-side. Then repeat a few times, until confidence is restored.

If you can get your money in 10 times in a row as an 80-20 favorite, you might lose every one of those 10 hands. Bankroll management is the only way to compensate for these stretches.

****************

A Good Call

$2/4NL on FullTilt, I’m to the left of a player with a double stack that is habitually overbetting the pot. Massive overbetting. A hand usually went like this -- Overbettor raises to 4xBB in MP, 1 or 2 callers including BB. Flop is low cards, BB bets about 2/3 pot, which makes the pot about $80, and Overbettor pushes for $810. Everyone folds. He is building a massive stack because no one is willing to risk their stack with just a pair (and no one has flopped a great hand against him yet).

This is a giant on-line tell.

The hand:
Overbettor raises to 4xBB in EP, and I min-re-raise to 10xBB with AKo, to isolate. It works, everyone else folds and he calls, and we’re heads-up. Pot is about $86. Flop is 2-3-4r. Overbettor pushes for over $800 and has me covered. The moment I’ve been waiting for. I run through this analysis:

1. He does not have AA or KK, or he absolutely would have repopped PF. So, 2 aces and 3 kings are likely good outs if he even has a PP.

2. He probably would not just push here with a PP like 88, 99 or TT, because there is a very good chance with my re-raise PF that I have him crushed with a bigger PP. SO, I’m putting him on Ax, or a weaker random hand like JTs. But, it really feels like Ax.

3. I may have as many as ten outs if, by chance, he’s pushing with a PP (3 aces, 3 kings, 4 fives). So, my pot equity is probably at least 40%, and maybe much better if my read is right.

4. This fits his pattern of massive overbets when he whiffs.

I call. He shows ATs. But, the turn is a five and we chop. A moral victory, but damn it!

I’ve been the first player at this table to respond appropriately against his overbets, so he is pissed. He proceeds to berate me in the chat box, that I called with “nothing,” I’m a terrible player, etc. This made it all the more humorous, because it was one of my best on-line reads in a long time, and was due mainly to paying attention to his betting patterns for about an hour. I just wish there was a financial payoff from this skirmish. He left the table within one more orbit.

****************

WPT Championship -- 7 players left

From the Cardplayer blog:
“Thu Apr 26 23:13:00 PDT 2007
Mike Wattel raises to $420,000 and Paul Lee calls. Thomas Wahlroos re-raises all in for $4.35 million more from the big blind. Wattel quickly mucks and Lee calls with A Q . Wahlroos shows A 10 and the board comes J 8 2 2 5 . Wahlroos fails to improve and is eliminated in 7th place for $278,465. Exact chip counts for the remaining 6 players in the WPT $25,000 NLHE championship will follow. “

Are you fucking kidding me? On the WPT Championship TV bubble and this dude pushes with ATs, but he has 27 BBs left and 3 players have smaller stacks? If I were in his place, I would need to have less than 10BBs left to make this play with these cards. That is at least a $31,000 mistake based on the cash difference between 7th and 6th, and certainly a lot more in overall tournament equity.

I read some threads on 2+2 where some argued that this was a good, or great, move given the situation. Yeah, maybe if this was a $100 on-line tournament, and not the WPT Championship TV bubble with $31,000 on the line for 6th vs. 7th, and the opportunity for millions as the 3rd biggest stack at the table.

*******************

WPT Championship winner

Carlos Mortensen won it. This is the first time for me that I was actively rooting for a player to win a tournament. I was following the action closely on Cardplayer, and really pulling for Mortensen.

Back before the WPT, I watched an ESPN show on the WSOP 2001 Final Table. It was before the hole-cams, and a lot of the show focused on some guy they called “Big Country”, but it was the year that Mortensen won. As far as I can remember, it was the first poker show that I ever watched. I still have it on tape. I had been playing with friends in home games for about 8 years at that point, but it introduced me to the WSOP and big poker. I was hooked, and I really liked Mortensen’s demeanor at the table and in interviews. Since then, he’s been one of my favorite players. Until this 2007 WPT championship tournament, I’ve followed poker but never really pulled for anyone.

The WPT Championship is my dream tournament, and I will play in it some day. If someone offered me a free big tournament, I would take this tournament over the WSOP main event, and not just for the buy-in amount.

****************

Thursday Night Live Tournament + Cash Game

The Tournament

With my renewed interest in tournament poker, I played in the Thursday night Ameristar tournament. Each level is 20 minutes. During the first hour, 3 levels, I was the boss. I was playing great small-ball poker. I would raise to 3xBB with any playable hand (any pair, any two big cards, any suited connectors). I typically got one, maybe two callers. I would make a continuation bet, or raise if it was opened in front of me. During the first level, I showed down KK for the winner, T8s for the winner (flopped 2-pair) and 67s for the winner (straight on the turn). With this full range of hands, I had the table believing that I would play just about any two cards (and I was), and my betting patterns were consistent throughout, so no one had a clue about my hand and every flop was potentially scary.

I think I won maybe 20-30% of the hands during this hour. I was raising liberally and taking down pots constantly with modest continuation bets. I had a good read on the table and had a decent feel where everyone was at in each hand. I was focused and paying attention to all hands, even those that I did not play.

Just before the break, I raised UTG with AKs. Weakish player re-raises with a stack of about 900. He kinda looked like he was getting pissed off with my play, so maybe he was making a play back. I pushed, he called with QQ, and we race. I lose, and he takes a 900-chip bite out of my ass. The trouble with small-ball poker is that it doesn’t result in huge profits, and the big losing hands still significantly damage your stack.

So I was back to about where I started, and during the second hour the blinds escalate quickly to push-fest levels. No one had a stack for me to play small-ball poker, because either I was pushing, or any player that might call was forced to push due to his stack size. Also, during the second hour, I was completely card dead, an endless stream of J4 and K2 type hands. There was no room for maneuvering. Get a good hand and push, or fold. I dwindle down and busted shortly into the third hour. Tournament poker sucks again.

The Cash Game

So, I sat in the $2/5 NL cash game. The game was friendly and very loose pre-flop. Nearly the whole table routinely called. Occasionally, someone would raise the field with a premium hand, and all but maybe one would scatter. Otherwise, it was a decent table for post-flop play, which is what I really like.

I was nearing the end of my session. Every player but one limped to me in the BB, and I wake up with AA. Now here’s the dilemma with AA in this situation. I have two basic choices: (1) raise to something like $40 and chase everyone out, winning $5 from each player, or (2) raise a modest amount, to maybe $25, and invite the whole table in for a monster pre-flop pot. I chose the latter, since I had a good read on the table, and got 5 callers. Eep.

The flop was something harmless like K-8-4 rainbow, and I check-raised one MP player on the flop, winning a decent pot on the flop and escaping unharmed.

I decide to play one more orbit and then pack it in for the night. On the very next hand, the entire table limps to me in the SB, and I look down to see AA again! Same dilemma, compounded by the fact that I may have to make the same play again from the blinds. I again raise to just $25, and get only two callers (the guy to my right, on the button, actually said, “Not again. That’s enough with the bleeding chip thing to you.”)

The flop was Kh-Qh-8c. I open for $80. BB raises to $180 total, third player folds. I check things out, and BB looks nervous. I ask him to raise his arm, to see his chips, but he quickly counts out to exactly $235 behind. [Tell Theory: What does it mean when you just ask to see a stack that’s hidden, and the player counts out the stack without being asked?] If I just call, its probably all going in on the turn anyway. I think there’s about 50% chance that he has a flush draw with AhXh, maybe 40% chance that he has KQ, and 10% chance that he has AK. Here is a key decision-point of my read: I do not have the A-hearts, making it much more likely that he is on the nut-flush draw with the Ah.

So, I pushed. He called with KQ. Eep, again. Fortunately, I suck out with an Ace on the river, and I win about an $840 pot. My night is over and I end happy. Cash games rule.

**************

Swing Back to Tournaments

Cash games have gone somewhat cold for me, but my on-line SNG/tournament performance has picked up. Again, I am at a loss to explain why these swings occur.

During my February Vegas trip and for about two months thereafter, I absolutely sucked at tournaments/SNGs, but could do no wrong in cash games. My cash game play felt solid, the competition seemed weaker, and I was stacking players on a regular basis. My on-line bankroll hit an all-time high from cash games. I avoided SNGs and tournaments altogether.

About two weeks ago [now three], my cash game results slipped. I would open two tables and after about a half-hour I would be down about 10-15 BBs on each table. Generally nothing horrible, just not gaining any traction. Then, during one session, I dropped two buy-ins on two tables in quick succession. So the thought occurred to me that maybe it was time to switch back to SNGs.

And suddenly, I’m back on track with SNGs and tournaments. I’m cashing in about 6070% of my single table SNGs, and I’m winning about 4 of every 5 $50+2.50 heads-up SNGs.

There’s obviously distinct differences about the flow of cash games and SNGs/tournaments, but I still can’t put my finger on why I swing back and forth with strong performances between the two, but don’t perform well with both at the same time. My play is taking on about a three-month cycle. I’m learning to identify when the cycle is about to swing. Maybe I can anticipate when the swing will happen again, and make the switch before I drop on either. For example, when I initially experienced a slide in my cash game performance a few weeks back, I should have switched back to SNGs right away and avoided dropping a couple of buy-ins at the cash tables.

Cash Games Rock, sort of

2007-04-19T23:59:00.000-04:00

On-Line Play:
Chiptalk tournament tonight, my QQ gets squashed early by AA on pre-flop action. I had about 1100 chips, so there's no way I can fold QQ here PF during the second level. In the same time +20 minutes, I am up $361 on the PStar NL cash tables. Tournaments suck, cash games rule.

Live Play last Saturday night, Ameristar:
$2/5NL. Average stack is around $500, I have about $1200 and have everyone covered. Guy to my immediate right is the Villain in this hand.

BACKGROUND:
Villain has been sitting at the table since I arrived, an I have won many chips from him. I’ve watched him pound four Coronas in about 90 minutes with his buddy to my immediate left, and he started drinking before I arrived about 7:30pm.

Some crucial prior hands against Villain.
1. Nearly the whole table limped to Villain on the button. Villain raises to $35. I have QQ in the SB and raise to $135 total. Villain is incensed. He stares me down, and tries to get me to talk. He thinks that I think he’s making a move on the button, and that I am simply restealing from him. This one-way chatter goes on for about 4-5 minutes, with me in silence, and then he finally folds in disgust.

2. About one orbit later, I limp with 25-hearts on the button. Flop is QT6 with two hearts. Checked to Villain who bets, and I think he probably has a Q with decent kicker, maybe 2-pair with QT. I call. Turn is another heart, [QT6]-9, completing my flush. He checks, I bet about half pot, he calls. River is a blank, no heart, he checks, I check, and O win with a flush. He is again angry, I think mainly at the quality of my flush.

After these and several others hands, he is whining constantly about the good starting hands that are getting ironed out by “all the bad players that keep calling my raises.” He’s showing me (but no one else) hands like QQ and AK that he has to fold to significant heat with overcards on the flop or other scary boards. Summarized, he is now a boiling mad drunk that plays otherwise solid poker.

THE HAND:
Many limpers to Villain on the button, who raises to $30. I call with QJo in the SB, BB calls, and one other player calls. Four to the flop with $120 in the pot.

Flop is TT9, two diamonds. I check, everyone checks to button, who bets $80. I think his range of hands is pretty narrow here, and be probably has a big PP or two high cards like AK or AQ. I call, thinking that if I hit my straight I might get his stack. Two other players fold. Pot is now $280.

Flop is [TT9]-8s. Beautiful. Now the only question is how to play this. I want him to think that I am on a diamond draw, and that he can push me off with a big raise with his overpair. I also want to set the price too high for him to profitably call if he does have a ten. I bet $150.

Villain is again incensed at my bet. He stares me down and starts chattering again, trying to get me to talk. He seems baffled as to what I might have. After a long time, he calls. Pot is $580.

River is [TT98]-9. At this point, I think that betting is useless, since he will obviously call or raise with a boat, and fold if he just has an overpair. If he bets, well... I will re-evaluate. I check.

He immediately says all-in very loudly, and shoves his stack in bulldozer style while simultaneously saying “put him on the clock.” Then he turns and stares.

I’m kind of baffled. My first thought is that his physical actions all indicate that he is trying to bully me out of the pot: quick act, shove chips in aggressively, call the clock. Everything says pressure. But after thinking for a moment, is he trying to pressure me into a call by overacting as the bully?

So now its my turn to talk. I first ask, “Did you actually just call the clock on me?”
His response: “You’re right, that’s just me being drunk.” He turns to the dealer: “I call the clock off.”

Is he trying to “give” me more time so that I can convince myself to call? Or, does he want me to fold, so now he’s giving me more time to prevent the pressure of forcing a quick call?

I ask for a count, and the pile of chips is re-assembled to $217 – it costs me $217 to win $797. I settle on this range of hands: 60% he has the ten, 40% he has something like KK or AA. I think it might even be 50/50.

Despite the theatrics on the river, the most important factor for me is the $80 bet on the flop. I can’t see him betting $80 with a ten in his hand with that flop -- I think he would lean more heavily toward (a) bet bigger (pot) to price out the flush draws, or (b) check and induce a bet if no diamond hits on the turn. An $80 bet on the flop is most consistent with AA, KK, QQ or JJ that is scared of a check-raise from someone trapping with the ten, which would mean that his actions on the river are trying to bully me into a fold.

I call. He shows AT-spades and I lose.

The night was still a success overall, based on my play and the $$$ results. But, as usual, I can’t help from analyzing this big losing hand over and over. Two questions remain:

1. Should I have pushed the turn? Probably not, but maybe so.

On the turn, I want to size my bet so that he will unprofitably call. Which I did, and he complied. The problem with this analysis, and any bet less than a push, is that I must fold to his river bet if he catches the winner. If I am going to pay him off on the river, than I should always push the turn when I am ahead and either take this pot or live with his massively unprofitable call and a bad beat on the river. Which then leads to the next question...

2. Should I have folded the river? Probably not.

I’ve run the math, but don’t want to post it all -- I would need to be at least 79% certain that he had a ten to justify a fold on the river, based on the price that I was getting.

So, the dilemma: I should have pushed the turn because I am unable to fold the river if I bet smaller on the turn (but still enough to make his call unprofitable), yet when I bet less than a push on the turn I am forced to call on the river because I think there is a much better than 20% chance that he is bluff-shoving with an overpair.

I’m happy with my read overall, because I think I assigned about the correct probabilities to his hand ranges. I wish I could say, “Yeah, I saw right through it, it was clear he had the boat on the river,” but my read was that he didn’t. I think I made the correct move on each street based on the math and my reads, but I’m still kind of stumped overall with this hand. The result sucked, but I had a specific reason for each action.

Hell, I shoulda pushed the turn.

Breakthrough

2007-04-14T00:20:00.000-04:00

I am playing cash games almost exclusively after my February Vegas trip. I won a bunch in the cash games in Vegas and have decided to settle more into cash games.

This has been a good decision. My on-line bankroll is at an all time high. After Party closed its doors to Americans and then the UIGEA, I thought that good cash games were never to be found again. For a long while, I was either winning in the SNGs and losing in cash games, or vice versa. I found the games tough and I struggled grow the bankroll. My results were stagnant -- several months of play and no up-tick in the bankroll.

During my Vegas trip and after, my cash game play has just clicked. $2/4NL on FullTilt has been great.

The most important thing that has happened is that my reads are getting better. I am trusting my instincts more, and making decisions based more on my feel and read of a hand rather than analysis during the hand. I no longer do much calculation during hands -- its all second nature now. So, I focus on relaxing during play and reading opponents. Most of the time, I can get a decent to strong feel for where I am at in a hand. If I can’t, it usually means I’m too tired or have been playing in a session for too long.

With on-line play, its mostly just absorbing the betting patterns and reaction times. With live play, its much easier. Just watching people tells me almost all that I need to know about where I am at in a hand. People give off so many signs about hand strength.

If I had to summarize my recent upswing, it would be due to:

1. Relaxing and reading my opponents.

2. Open-raising or calling more raises in late position. Playing a wide range of hands on the button. The importance of late position has finally sunk in. I find myself folding amazingly strong hands in early position to a raise.

3. Taking the lead in betting and continuing with the lead.

4. Identifying the LAGs and waiting for an opportunity to pick them off with a strong hand. I used to develop a strong retaliation mentality toward LAGs -- try to play back at them with their type of game. A better approach in NL is to wait for one key hand to take their stack.

5. Not categorizing my play. I don’t go into a game thinking about a style of play. Sometimes I find myself playing really LAG, and other times I find myself playing like a giant rock. It depends on my mood, the table, and most importantly my read of the players.

6. On-line, I’ve finally found a useful function for player notes -- I’ve started copying and pasting whole hands into my notes. I focus on hands where (a) a player paid off really big, (b) got caught in a bluff, or (c) won a big pot. Rather than some cryptic note that I peck out during play, reading an entire hand can actually provide critical insight into playing styles. And, I’m seeing a lot of the same players at the $2/4NL games, so my notes are actually being put to use.

I still play a lot

2007-04-02T00:23:00.000-04:00

Despite the infrequent blog posts, I still play online on a regularly basis and live occasionally. I’m still working on the Vegas report, so those that are on the edge of their seats will have to wait. Haha.

When I have a normal workload at work and at home, I post occasionally. When I have a heavy workload, I post infrequently. I’ve been really busy.

Three on-line hands for your learning, with my thinking as the hands played out.

1. First, the worst hand that I’ve played in at least the last 18 months, either on-line or live. The strange thing is, I had a reason for every action in the hand…

Well, I can’t find the hand history, but I can re-create it, close enough:

$2/4NL, I have just over $400, just started at this table.
MP raises to $12. I re-raise to $35 with AK. MP calls.
Flop is TKK. I check. MP bets $40, I call. I am simply slow-playing, acting like I have a middle-pair. That’s what I put him on. I am hoping he will bet again on the turn.
Turn is [TKK]8. I check. Please bet! He checks.
River is [TKK8]7. I decide its time to finally bet -- $120. He pushes.
My first thought is that he has a middle to high pair like TT or JJ, and I managed to dupe him into trying to push me off what amounts to a bluff. I call, he shows 77 for the rivered boat.

Just absolutely awful.

2. A hand that I really like. Not because I flopped a set and stacked a player, but because I made use of an on-line “tell” to maximize value …

Full Tilt Poker Game #2112988821: Table Padre Field - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: Hippy Hair ($540.80)
Seat 2: sunfish2 ($394)
Seat 3: treenom ($422.80)
Seat 4: Wordo ($386)
Seat 5: SpeakEasy ($400)
Seat 6: PoorNapoleon ($380)
Seat 7: UK_Pompey ($343.60)
Seat 8: LuckySOB ($383.40)
Seat 9: seebee25 ($57.20)
Wordo posts the small blind of $2
SpeakEasy posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SpeakEasy [7s 7h]
PoorNapoleon folds
UK_Pompey folds
LuckySOB raises to $14
seebee25 folds
Hippy Hair folds
sunfish2 folds
treenom folds
Wordo folds
SpeakEasy calls $10
*** FLOP *** [7c Ac Td]
SpeakEasy checks
LuckySOB bets $30
SpeakEasy raises to $80 [A fairly standard play here. If he calls, he either has an ace or has a big pair like KK or QQ and just thinks I’m making a move. Here’s the important part – he thought for a reaaaaaly long time, then called. This confirms exactly what I hope, he has a big Ace, or a big pair like KK.]
LuckySOB has 15 seconds left to act
LuckySOB calls $50
*** TURN *** [7c Ac Td] [2h]
SpeakEasy bets $138 [I made the size of this bet only because he took a long time to call my C/R on the flop, and a big bet here looks like I’m trying to push him off his big ace or big pair. If he had called quickly on the flop C/R, I would have bet a smaller amount here, and therefore his whole stack might not have gone in the pot. My read in this hand was critical to the size of this bet.]
LuckySOB calls $138
*** RIVER *** [7c Ac Td 2h] [4h]
SpeakEasy bets $168, and is all in [Since he called on the turn, I have to assume he will call this bet with an Ace or big pair.]
LuckySOB calls $151.40, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $16.60 returned to SpeakEasy
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SpeakEasy shows [7s 7h] (three of a kind, Sevens)
LuckySOB mucks
SpeakEasy wins the pot ($765.80) with three of a kind, Sevens
LuckySOB is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $768.80 Rake $3
Board: [7c Ac Td 2h 4h]
Seat 1: Hippy Hair didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: sunfish2 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: treenom (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Wordo (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: SpeakEasy (big blind) showed [7s 7h] and won ($765.80) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 6: PoorNapoleon didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: UK_Pompey didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: LuckySOB mucked [Ks Ad] - a pair of Aces [Broke the NL golden rule -- don't go broke with one pair.]
Seat 9: seebee25 didn't bet (folded)

3. Finally, a hand that relies on my read of the betting patterns…

Full Tilt Poker Game #2119694369: Table Padre Field - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: samonilla ($142)
Seat 2: VERYLUCKYDOG ($154)
Seat 3: 52Addictions ($390)
Seat 4: deucheman2 ($233.90)
Seat 5: mattbet ($400)
Seat 6: DonTreEdthis ($225.90)
Seat 7: SpeakEasy ($390)
Seat 8: silverbird ($109.25)
Seat 9: boykee ($400)
deucheman2 posts the small blind of $2
mattbet posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SpeakEasy [Qs Ks]
DonTreEdthis folds
SpeakEasy raises to $12
silverbird folds
boykee folds
samonilla folds
VERYLUCKYDOG folds
deucheman2 has 15 seconds left to act
deucheman2 is sitting out
deucheman2 has timed out
deucheman2 folds
mattbet calls $8
*** FLOP *** [8s 3d 5h]
mattbet checks
SpeakEasy bets $18
deucheman2 has returned
mattbet calls $18 [I’m thinking that he paired on the flop, or has a modest overpair.]
*** TURN *** [8s 3d 5h] [Qc]
mattbet checks
SpeakEasy bets $38
mattbet calls $38 [Now I’m thinking its more likely that he had an overpair to the flop. I don’t think he has a Q.]
*** RIVER *** [8s 3d 5h Qc] [As]
mattbet bets $60 [Really only two possibilities here with this bet (1) he has the mid-pair, and thinks that I whiffed, or (2) he has Ax. What Ax that fits this betting pattern? AQ – no, he would probably re-raise this from the BB, or at least lead on the turn. A8? Unlikely he would call the turn with this. Same conclusion with A5 or A3. I feel strongly that he has a mid-pair and just doesn’t believe my betting pattern, especially my turn bet. Turn bets that look like continuation of a continuation can be valuable.]
SpeakEasy has 15 seconds left to act
SpeakEasy calls $60
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mattbet shows [Tc Ts] (a pair of Tens)
SpeakEasy shows [Qs Ks] (a pair of Queens)
SpeakEasy wins the pot ($255) with a pair of Queens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $258 Rake $3
Board: [8s 3d 5h Qc As]
Seat 1: samonilla didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: VERYLUCKYDOG (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: 52Addictions is sitting out
Seat 4: deucheman2 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: mattbet (big blind) showed [Tc Ts] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 6: DonTreEdthis didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: SpeakEasy showed [Qs Ks] and won ($255) with a pair of Queens
Seat 8: silverbird didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: boykee didn't bet (folded)

I'm a Delinquent Blogger

2007-03-12T23:51:00.000-04:00

I'm working on a lengthy Vegas trip report. The extremely condensed version:

Played in 3 Wynn tournaments, 1 Venetian Tournament, and 1 Wynn single-table satellite. Total buy-in fees: about $1900. Total winnings: $0.

Played many hours of cash games. Total winnings: $5000+. The cash games were just fantastic. I guess I'm on one of those tournament downswings and cash-game upswings. I still can't explain these cycles.

Sat next to one 'famous' poker author, and the experience was actually very disappointing. Hit my first Royal Flush (on the flop!) and, surprisingly, won a decent pot.

Other Tournament News

My shitty Thursday night CT tournament performance continues. So last Saturday night, I had another one of those "I'm gonna play in a big tournament with a very Zen attitude, and see if I can still even play a tournament" moments.

Played in the FullTilt $26,000 guarantee. 1121 entrants, I placed 16th. $13 buy-in (via a $26 token, won in an easy HU match immediately prior to the tournament), and I cashed for $177. Waa-hoo. I was so tired, I was falling asleep at the end. And we lost an hour that night. At this hourly rate, I should just play 3 hours of cash games and then stop at midnight -- make more $$$, lose less sleep.

Games Have Gone Bad

2007-02-14T13:36:00.000-05:00

Now I see why the books and pros talk about the importance of “game selection,” which is poker-code for “play with the fish, avoid the sharks.” I think the sky is, in fact, falling.

In the last week, either my game has completely fallen apart, or the on-line tables are suddenly much tougher. I don’t think I’m playing much different or particularly bad. I’ve reviewed hands afterwards, and I don’t see much different about my play or any glaring mistakes. I’m honest with myself when I fuck up. I think I am witnessing the rapid effect of new laws choking of the continuous supply of funds to the on-line fish.

I’ve played SNGs regularly for a couple of years, and I’ve kept complete records for about 14 months now. I have consistently turned a profit in SNGs with a ROI around 20%. I’m a hobby player and no part of my family income is derived from poker, but I play to win and I hate losing. I’ve been playing off a single $200 on-line deposit since 2003. I've used Neteller only to move funds between sites, but I've never used it to make a deposit. The longest stretch I’ve ever gone without a cash in the last year is five SNGs.

During the last week, I had a 1-for-12 cash stretch at the $33, $55 and $75 levels. An all-time losing streak. Here’s what I see happening: The weak players are getting washed out of the games.

In a typical SNG at these levels and lower, prior to the legal crackdown, a table consisted of 3-4 weak players and the rest decent to very good players. Solid players rely on weaker players to make mistakes, which provides profit in the long run. The weaker players don’t have to be “bad,” they just have to make enough mistakes in the long run to provide a decent ROI for the solid players. These weak players can’t fund their accounts any more, and they are disappearing from the game.

Evidence of this trend:

1. Checks on Sharkscope prior to the crackdown revealed an amazing number of players that had huge losses in SNGs. They have to be continuously funding their accounts to keep playing. Now, checks on Sharkscope usually reveal only players that are making money. This is bad.

2. Lots of players are lasting longer in SNGs. The main characteristic of weak SNG players is that they take too many gambles at the early levels. In the past, a typical SNG was down to 4-5 players when pushbot play started. Now, there are sometimes 7-8 players still around during what use to be the bubble level – way more than I’ve ever seen before. At this point, all players are using correct strategy to be in pushbot mode even if they are a big stack because they are raising small stacks. Its become a contest of 7-8 players pushing, and just having your hand hold up, like the middle stages of a short-stack PStars multi-table tournament. The overall effect of stronger players is easier to see in SNG rather than cash games.

3. I see lots of posters on message boards that are suddenly short on funds and need help with transfers between sites. I’ve been kind of amazed at the extensive discussions on new creative methods to get funds into accounts – phone cards and such. These were the regular depositers that have lost the ability to fund their accounts. The games are literally drying up without their funds.

Another contributing factor is that I have not been able to win a single race situation in SNGs, which is really what you need against a table of solid players when everyone is in pushbot mode in later rounds. My AQ gets beat by KJ, my KQ gets beat by AT, my JJ gets beat by AQ, etc. – I was on the losing end of far more than my share of races in this stretch.

Not bitching, it just what happens sometimes. But, it used to be that these losing streaks were ironed out because not every SNG results in 7 players in pushbot mode. Previously, these occasional tough tables were broken up by tables with weakers players that naturally thinned the field, so only 3-4 players went to pushbot mode rather than 6-7. In the long run, this will have a dramatic effect on results.

Its inevitable that choking off the deposits will completely strangle on-line games. Sharks will play only with sharks, the very best and the lucky will win in the short-term, and the rake will eviscerate the funds in circulation. I am not one of the very best. I can see that continuous deposits from fish are absolutely critical to on-line poker, and the lawmakers certainly chose the most effective means of killing the games.

My Vegas Options

2007-02-10T18:40:00.000-05:00

I'm staying at the Wynn for the 'Wynn Classic' in a few weeks. And the Venetian is offering deep-stacked tournaments when I am there?! Sweet!! My only problem will be which to play in...

*****
Two prominent casinos seeking to increase their already growing presences in the Las Vegas poker market have announced major poker events with late February kickoffs. The Venetian has now released details on the 'Deep Stack Extravaganza,' running February 21st through March 11th, 2007, and over at the Wynn, the 'Wynn Classic' runs through the exact same dates. The two series offer vastly different formats, despite the matching three-week runs. The Venetian's deep-stack series emphasizes just that, offering 19 consecutive daily tournaments with either $300+30 or $500+40 buy-ins. The $330's provide a $6,000-chip starting stack, the $540's begin with $10,000 in chips, and both also offer a

purchase of even more chips ($1,500 and $2,500, respectively), for a nominal $10 dealer/staff gratuity. The Venetian's pre-Extravaganza press release also notes 40-minute levels and "very generous" blind structures, with daily satellites also offered to allow even lower-bankrolled players the opportunity to win their way into one of the larger events. 16 of the 19 scheduled events are no-limit Hold'em, with the other three split one each across the pot-limit Omaha, Omaha/8, and H.O.S. (Hold'em/Omaha/Stud) formats. Meanwhile, the Wynn Classic kicks off with a satellite day and two $500+40 no-limit Hold'em events as well, then jumps to events at $1,000+60, $2,000+80 or $3,000+100, and culminates in a four-day $10,000+200 buy-in finale that begins on March 8th.

I still play live poker

2007-02-07T22:38:00.000-05:00

I didn’t get to play live poker during the entire month of January. That sucks.

Finally, I get out to play. Last Saturday night, live casino $2/5 NLHE game. I started with an $800 stack using the 75% rule (you can sit down with 75% of the biggest stack at the table). After only about 10 minutes, I tangled with the big stack.

He was wearing a Penn State sweatshirt. I had not heard him speak a single word yet, but he was at the other end of the table. Most of the other stacks at the table were somewhere between $200 and $500, but PennState was the big stack with more than $1500. I noticed that he took a decent amount of flops, but I hadn’t seen him win much since I sat down and he seemed pretty tight after the flop..

PennState limped UTG. I had KK in MP and raised to $25. This was fairly standard and did not give away the strength of my hand. Everyone folded back to PennState, and he called. We were heads-up with a pot of about $55.

Flop came Ts-6c-8s. He checked, I bet $50. He check-raised to $100 total. This seemed like an odd bet. I immediately assumed he was on a spade flush draw with the minraise, and he was testing to see if I whiffed and was just making a continuation bet. I thought he might also have something like AT, and C/R here for the same purpose -- to get me to lay down AK or an underpair. I felt very certain at this point that I was ahead, so I decided it was time to put in a big raise. I raised back $250, the size of the pot. Play big pots with big hands, right?

He asks the dealer, “How much more?” About 10 seconds after receiving the answer, he announces that he is all in.

Well, crap. Now I’m really put to the test. The pot is about $930, accounting for the fact that he has me covered. I have about $425 left in my stack, so I am not committed here -- if I decide that I’m behind, I can preserve $425 and play on.

So what the hell does he have? I start to run through all the possibilities. Did he limp-call with AA? Very unlikely. Based on the way he’s playing this on the flop, if he had AA he would have either (1) re-popped it pre-flop after I raised, (2) bet out on the flop with two spades on board or (3) check-raised me much more. He had no way of knowing that I would help him build this big of a pot through 4 bets on the flop, so I don’t think he would play AA this slow.

Spade flush draw? Maybe, but unlikely, based on my evaluation of his style. He didn’t seem to be the player that would put it all in on a draw unless he had something else to go with it, like top pair.

97? Also seemed unlikely. Would a relatively tight, decent player call out of position with this hand? Maybe in position in a multi-way hand, but this seemed unlikely heads-up and out of position against the second biggest stack.

Set? This has to be it. Set of TT? Possibly, but the least likely of the three possible sets he might have, since a big stack would very likely raise PF UTG with TT. 66 or 88? Yes, this is definitely the way that he might play second or third set (although the mini-C/R was odd).

What else do I know? I start to study him. He’s shuffling a very small stack of 6 chips, and I notice that he’s visibly shaking. In fact, his hand is trembling so much that he can barely shuffle 6 chips! He’s either extremely nervous or excited. It occurs to me that if this otherwise calm, cautious player were to suddenly run a bluff against the only stack at the table that can ruin his otherwise profitable evening, he would be absolutely motionless if he were on a bluff. So, I’m nearly positive now that I am looking at the trembling hand of a TAG player with a monster flop against the only player at the table that can turn his big stack into a gigantic $2000+ stack.

And, then there’s the golden rule of NL -- don’t go broke with one pair. So, after much thought, I folded. He did not show. He left about an hour later, and despite the largest stack he appeared to be the tightest player at the table. So, he probably did have a set.

The remainder of the night went very well. I ran my stack back up to about $1800 after about 2 hours, and cashed out for over $1600 after three hours of play.

$800 + 2 hours = $1800

(Phone cameras are made for chipstack pictures.)

No Mercy for the Weak-Tight

The other players were fairly easy to read. One woman sitting two to my left, who is a regular with her husband in this poker room, should have just announced exactly what her hands were. She was on a shortish stack all night long and was basically only playing top-15 hands pre-flop. She was moaning and groaning all night long about not getting any cards. She declared that she either raises or folds PF, and she doesn’t even mess with questionable PF hands.

So, I knew exactly where she stood when she played a pot. On the rare occasion that she played, it went like this:
(1) She became completely silent, which meant a premium hand -- AA, KK, QQ.
(2) She would say to her friend, sitting immediately to my left, something like “OK, let’s see if this goes anywhere.” This meant she had two big cards like AK, AQ or a small pocket pair that was good only for set value.
(3) She would groan and raise, meaning she had a middle pocket pair like TT, 99 or 88, and she was just waiting to get bet off her hand when the inevitable overcard hit on the flop.

Unless she hit the flop or started with a premium hand, she would bail out. There was no bluffing to her game. Weak-tighties don’t get any easier to read than this. So, of course, I was the villain who ended her evening in misery...

I’m in late position and limp in with several others. Weak-Tight raises to $15 on the button with a stack of about $250, and she gives the “let’s see if this goes anywhere” comment to our mutual neighbor. So, I believe that she is in category #2 -- big cards or small pocket pair. (Its amazing that she would not notice that I’m paying attention to all of these comments...) Everyone calls.

Flop is Qh-8h-6d. Its checked to me and I bet $30. Weak-tight minraises to $60. Its folded back to me and I call. At this point, I’m 100% certain she has either AQ, 88 or 66.

Turn is (Qh-8h-6d)-4c -- an apparently harmless card. I give a little facial expression that says “Damn, that didn’t complete my flush,” and I check. She bets $75. I think for a bit, sigh like I’m on a draw and reluctantly go all in. She calls and turns over 66 for the set. I reveal 75o for the nut straight.

The river bricks out, and she stands up in complete disgust. “Why do people play that shit?” she asks, referring to my pitiful 75o. As an answer, I motion to the pile of chips that I’m stacking. After she leaves, several others declare that she blew the hand, as she should have raised more on the flop. They were absolutely right.

The Next PartyPoker

2007-02-03T01:56:00.000-05:00

The Bodog Challenge Update
Starting Bodog Bankroll on Jan. 14, 2007: $31
Bankroll at Last Blog Post: $211
Gain/Loss: $129
Current Bodog Bankroll: $340
Total SNGs played: 41
Total Cash Game Table-Hours: 3.5

Have I found the next PartyPoker? In less than three weeks of sporadic play I have run $31 to $340. This is how the “PartyPoker Challenge” started back in August 2006. The SNGs are loaded with players that make so many mistakes. The cash tables are filled with mediocre players. The heads-up limit hold ‘em tables are volatile, but a gold mine waiting to be tapped.

In this type of challenge, the risk of ruin is very high at the start. But now I’ve settled into the $21 and $36 SNGs and HU limit HE tables, and I’d have to run awfully cold to bust this bankroll.

Too bad the software and interface sucks.

Key Tournament Hand

2007-01-31T10:00:00.000-05:00

I initially thought that I played this hand in the last weekly CT tournament very poorly. The result was certainly bad. Hand history and running commentary:

PokerStars Tournament Level VI (100/200) - 2007/01/25
Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: (1645 in chips)
Seat 2: (4125 in chips)
Seat 3: (1405 in chips)
Seat 5: Darvcus (4520 in chips) -- I’m big stack, an important consideration.
Seat 6: (1605 in chips)
Seat 7: Villain (3990 in chips) -- Villain makes loose calls, another important point.
Seat 8: (3775 in chips)
Seat 9: (2770 in chips)
SB posts small blind 100
Villain: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Darvcus [Tc 8c]
folds, folds, folds, folds, folds
Darvcus: raises 400 to 600 -- Yes, a steal raise. Also, I really like T8s. Its one of my favorite hands. I don’t know why.
SB folds
Villain: raises 400 to 1000
Darvcus: calls 400 -- Villain could have a wide range of hands here. I think he would raise more with a premium hand. Call here is standard, but unnecessarily expensive given stack sizes.
*** FLOP *** [Kh Th Ks]
Villain: bets 600
Darvcus: calls 600 -- My instant reaction was that he has an underpair. I thought there was very little chance that he would play a K like this. After a bit of thinking, I settle on something like 80% underpair, 15% ten, 5% king. I don’t think this player would be a flush draw or straight draw here.
*** TURN *** [Kh Th Ks] [5d]
Villain: checks
Darvcus: checks --- His check tells me that he’s scared that I may have a king or a ten. So, my initial thought of an underpair is strengthened. If I check, it might signal that I’m on a draw (QJ, AQ, J9, something like that) or that I am setting a trap with a big hand.
*** RIVER *** [Kh Th Ks 5d] [6c]
Villain: bets 800
Darvcus: calls 800 -- Value bet with a lucky with 55 or 66 for a boat? Naah. He thinks that my draw didn’t get there? Yeah, that’s probably it. Decent chance my ten is good, which make this a super easy call given his range of hands and that I’m getting a great price -- 800 for 4000+.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Ah Ts] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
Villain collected 4900 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4900 Rake 0
Board [Kh Th Ks 5d 6c]
Seat 5: Darvcus (button) mucked [Tc 8c]
Seat 7: Villain (big blind) showed [Ah Ts] and won (4900) with two pair, Kings and Tens

Well, crap. I’m crippled, and this hand was ultimately my demise because cold-card, pushbot poker followed to the end. This is why small-stack tournaments are so frustrating, and thinking in terms of cash games is damaging. There’s zero room for error in shallow tournaments. In a cash game, this would have been a fairly standard hand (including my button play here) -- I might have started with maybe 140 BBs as the big stack at the table and lost about 13BBs. No big deal. But since this is a shallow tournament, I start with about 23 BBs, lose 13BBs, and I’m suddenly in Pushbot mode. Give me deep-stack play!

Other ways to my play in this hand:
1. Re-raise PF and put him to the test. He probably would have called. No comment.
2. Raise the flop. He probably would have called. No comment.
3. Push on the river. I actually think he’s more likely to lay down to this play because of the concern that I’ve been slow-playing a king. But he probably would have called.

My Turn

2007-01-29T23:32:00.000-05:00

I've suffered many a bad beat, so its time for me to deliver one. For some reason, I don't feel too bad about it. I'd play this the same way about 100% of the time. This looks similar to a certain High Stakes Poker hand, just for several hundred thousand less.

Rocky Cash Games

2007-01-26T00:37:00.000-05:00

I busted out of the CT tournament in the middle of the pack, as usual. Too much PF poker -- need deeper stacks. Plus, I made one very poor play, which is a killer given stack sizes.

Close tournament table, open cash game tables. In this hand tonight, my aces hold up. Whaddyaknow. After I raised UTG, I'm just hoping everyone doesn't fold, given the rockiness of the game. When BB calls the small stack push and then calls my reraise, he's gotta have a hand. The flop is almost perfect, except for the two spades. I'm 95% sure I'm way ahead, because BB would have made it 3 bets PF with KK or QQ. If he has AQ, I'm going to get some more. If he has AK, I'm going to get it all. If he has KQ, oh well.

I get the sense that the cash games are tightening up on all sites. Or at least there's less donks from the current reload constraints. I dunno, maybe this is just my limited experience from occasionaly play. My SNG results remain steady, but the cash games seem tougher. I'm playing my same game, but the results are flat. If it weren't for the occasional hand like above, my cash game results would be very flat. Standard play, win the occasional big pot, pack it in and move to the next table. The running back plan.

The Bodog Challenge Update
Starting Bodog Bankroll on Jan. 14, 2007: $31
Bankroll at Last Blog Post: $117
Gain/Loss: $94
Current Bodog Bankroll: $211
Total SNGs played: 25 (lots of HU SNGs)
Cash Game Table-Hours: 2.5
Sports Bets: 1 (2-team parlay -- Bears -3 and Patriots +3)

I’m starting to dislike the Bodog SNG structures. The early levels are OK, but after the 50-100 level, the blinds double at each stage and therefore escalate way too fast. I’m in pushbot mode whether I’m a big or smaller stack, based on the size of the smaller stacks at the table. In one game, I was pushing with decent hands as a big stack into stacks of 6-9 BBs. Someone asked, “Speak, do you have a monkey pushing buttons for you?’’ Apparently my play set everyone on tilt, as they started calling my AQ and TT with hands like T8 and J9 out of frustration.

Try this trick

2007-01-20T20:48:00.000-05:00

I can't believe this actually worked.

Home game in my basement, about 3 weeks before Christmas. Everyone is in great spirits, which made everything fun even when people were losing. All 8 players are still in the tournament. I have a monster stack thanks to solid play and a few lucky breaks here and there.

I raise UTG. Friend to my immediate left calls, as does button. Flop is Kh-7h-3s. I bet about half the pot. Player on my left calls, button folds.

Turn is (Kh-7h-3s)-9h. Other player in the hand has a shortish stack. To draw attention to the play that I'm about to try, I say, "Is it legal to show my cards now?" I know the answer. Everyone kind of says, "Um, yeah, I guess."

I flip the Ah face up and announce that I'm all in.

Oohs and aahs at this odd move. Other player in the hand looks like he has a tough decision, so I know that he has a K. Another player at the table says exactly what I'm hoping for: "Why would he do that unless he's bluffing?"

Victim ponders, with assistance from the others at the table. The consensus is that I'm clearly bluffing. "OK, I call."

I flip over the 6h for the nut flush. Victim groans and rebuys. More oohs and aahs.

Fun stuff.

Rethinking Hold ‘em – Tournament vs. Cash Games

2007-01-19T08:13:00.000-05:00

Occasionally someone on CT asks about the main difference between NL hold ‘em tournaments and cash games. Frequently the question is “why do I excel in SNGs and tournaments but suck at cash games?”

Pondering this question, a new approach to thinking about the game just occurred to me.

In hold ‘em, your hand strength is traditionally defined by your two starting hole cards. When someone is defined as a LAG, they play a lot of their two starting cards and see a lot of flops. When someone says “I have a really good hand,” they are talking about their two hole cards.

But, hold ‘em is a seven card game, not two. What if I define my “starting hand” as the first five cards? Three of the five are common cards, but they are still part of my hand. What if I decide to play a lot of starting hands, with the idea that my starting hand is my first five cards, and not just my first two cards?

My focus shifts to the flop. If I define my starting hand as the first five cards, then the notion of loose or tight does not even begin until I make my decision after I see the first three board cards. Seeing the flop is routine, and I make my first decision after I see my first five cards. I’m playing 5-card hold ‘em rather than 2-card hold ‘em.

What is the cost of this approach? Typically, no more than 3BBs or 4BBs. In a standard cash game in late position, I can usually see the flop for one standard raise.

What hands qualify to see my 5-card starting hand? Just about any playable 2-card starting hand -- all pairs, suited connectors, big cards and suited aces. I’ll tighten these requirements in early position, but proceed to the flop in late or middle position for a standard pre-flop raise. The pre-flop raise is merely the cost to see my 5-card starting hand.

Now, back to tournaments vs. cash games -- I think this 5-card mind-set explains the difference between cash games and tournaments (SNGs included). In a tournament, your stack size often precludes you from seeing lots of flops. Its just too expensive relative to the blinds. This is especially true in on-line short-stack tournaments like the weekly CT tournament. If I have 3500 at the 50/100 level in the weekly CT tournament, I’m in decent shape. But, the cost to see just three flops with a 3500 stack would be over 25% of my stack. That’s just too expensive relative to my stack size. So, in a typical on-line tournament, almost all of the critical decisions are made based on the first two cards alone.

In comparison, in a typical cash game, after about an hour of successful play I might have 130BBs, so seeing as many as five flops for a standard raise is just around 10% of my stack. Therein lies the major difference between cash games and tournaments. Now, once I’ve seen my 5-card starting hand, I’m going to evaluate the strength of my hand. This is where the most critical decisions are made in cash games. But, if I’m seeing more flops and spending more money up front, I have to be even more cautious to not over-play my 5-card starting hand. I think this is the difference between successful and unsuccessful NLHE players.

I believe this is why so many of the most very successful big-time tournament players focus first on the blind structure of any tournament. The blind structure throughout the whole tournament (not just the first few levels) is absolutely critical for them to have enough chips to pay to see lots of their 5-card starting hands. For tight players, this is not so important because they are making most of their decisions based on their first 2 cards. But for players like Negreanu, Goehring and other famous loose players, a shallow blind structure is the most critical element of the tournament.

This is nothing revolutionary – play deep-stack poker and see lots of flops. But, if my focus becomes routinely seeing flops and making the first major decision after I see 5 cards, I’ve adjusted for cash games. If I play the 2-card version of hold ‘em, its usually too tight for cash games.

The Bodog Challenge Update
Starting Bodog Bankroll: $31
Gain/Loss: $85
Current Bodog Bankroll: $117
SNGs played: 9
Cash Game Table-Hours: 1

Surprisingly, I Can Still Play Tournaments

2007-01-14T19:06:00.000-05:00

My cash game results have been crap lately, and I seem to only show a consistent profit in SNGs for the last few weeks. Since I struggle to make a CT Thursday night final table and haven’t played in many other tournaments, I decided to see if I can still play tournaments. So, I made the decision to play the $26 buy-in FullTilt $25,000 guarantee on Saturday night, and really focus and be ready to stay up late to make a strong finish. I also entered two other tournaments that started at the same time – a $75 FT satellite to a FTOPS tournament and a 90-seat $11 SNG.

Results:

$75 Satellite: There were only about 30 entrants, and it paid six $215 seats (and I would unregister and take the cash). Within the first 5 minutes, my AA were all in vs KK and QQ pre-flop. A king hit on the turn and I’m gone. I could have coasted to a cash finish with a triple+ stack in that one.

90-player deep-stack $11 SNG: 1st place, $250 cash. I can still play medium sized tournaments, despite my CT performance. All of the SNG and HU play really paid off here. At the final table, I was about 4th in chips at the start. I just played it like a SNG, with patience early and then aggression when we were down to 4 players. Others seemed to panic too early and dumped chips with moderate hands.

Despite the fact that this was a deep-stack tournament, I suffered a bad beat at the second level and was down to around 900 when everyone else had 3000+. I used all my hard-earned skills from the weekly CT tournaments and nursed a small stack for quite some time through early and mid-levels until I worked back up to a respectable stack size.

$25,000 guarantee, 1614 entrants: 24th place, $166 cash. At three tables, I was 5th in chips. The crippling hand was my 99 vs AK. Early player limped, I raised 4xBB, and button pushed. I was ABSOLUTELY sure button had AK based on my read of his past play. I made the conscious decision to race, knowing that if I won I would have been 2nd in chips, way in front with the chip leader, and would surely have made the final table. I lost the race, but I was actually very satisfied that I read the hand exactly right – it was like I could see everyone’s cards face up. This was actually the most satisfying hand of the tournament because I was so sure of my read, and I was right.

The Bodog Challenge
I deposited $100 in a Bodog account at the start of the football season, for some fun sports bets. I did OK with the sports bets, but played in a few NL cash games and suffered suckouts. So now I have $31 on there. How far can I run that $31? I'm starting with SNGs.

2006

2007-01-14T18:18:00.000-05:00

Short summary of my poker in 2006:

Party Poker

I was crushing the Party NL games to the tune of something like 12BB per table-hour for an extended time, but that shut down when Party closed to US accounts. (I assume. I withdrew all my funds, but I don’t know for a fact that I can’t actually play there anymore...) I really jump-started my Party play when I did the “cash game challenges” on CT, and proceeded to run $200 to nearly $3000. For me, nothing inspires good play like a challenge and setting goals.

After Party shut down, I kept playing NL cash games on FullTilt and Stars. My results there are much less impressive than on Party. I’ve analyzed my play, and I’ve concluded that the competition is much tougher than on Party. Where did all the fish go? As much as I’d like to believe that each avatar on the screen is the same faceless little ATM machine, there are real players at the mouse and some of them are as good as me, or better. Damn it.

SNGs

I took what amounted to an extended break from SNGs while playing Party NL cash games. After the Party ended, I added SNGs back into my online poker diet. I played a mix of $33, $55 and $75 SNGs. Summary of 2006 results

In the money: about 45%
ROI: about 22%
Total SNGs: 275
Total winnings: about $2500

Yeah, 2+2 posters would jump on this – “Small sample size!” I only play at night, and this is a lot of play for me. I’m happy with the results, and I’ve played enough to be confident that this is not just a lucky stretch. And the trend is continuing in 2007.

From what I read on 2+2, this is a wonderful ROI at the middle levels. My longest stretch without a cash was 5 SNGs, and during some stretches I was cashing 8 out of 10. I usually play only 2 at a time -- anything more and I am completely unable to get a read on anyone at any table, and I rely heavily on my reads.

In December, I learned about “Sharkscope,” and discovered that I have the little “shark” icon on FT and PS. Wheeee. Sharkscope is actually somewhat useful in certain situations, especially in heads-up play. I am absolutely amazed at the SNG losses of some players. Some of them have negative ROI and their losses are into the thousands from $50 SNGs! How the hell do they keep playing?

I really like heads-up SNGs, because they don’t take much time and they really the competitive blood to a boil. I played 65 HU SNGs, and my ROI was around 10%. My specialty seems to be limit hold ‘em heads-up SNGs (yes, limit) – I really like these, and nearly everyone seems to overplay one or two key big hands each game. But 9-seat SNGs is where to really make the money.

Weekly CT Tournaments

My CT weekly tournament performance has dropped. The play there is much better overall, and the regulars are getting better. Its pretty much a crap-shoot each week, because everyone plays solid pre-flop poker and you need to get good cards to go anywhere. There are less players to pick on, and some the players that I used to bully have become better at sniffing out my bluffs. Its still good practice, and I still enjoy looking forward to Thursday night play. The side bets and team play has kept things interesting and competitive.

On-Line tournaments

On-line tournaments require significant luck and extended concentration, and I really don’t have the time to devote to large field tournaments. I’d like to tackle more mid-level buy-in medium sized on-line tournaments (300-600 entrants), but I can’t stay up until 2am or later to finish these. I wish I had time to play more of these, but SNGs are ideal for the time that I can devote. Despite this, my ROI for tournaments was over 150% for the year, due to 2 big on-line tournament scores early in the year for $2000+.

“Taking a Shot” in the Bigger Cash Games

The majority of my on-line cash game losses came from three separate sessions where I “took a shot” in higher stakes games and had very bad nights. On two occasions, I lost tons to horrible suckouts, and on one occasion I just played bad. I would consider the suckouts to be just normal variance at my regular stakes, but the impact is amplified when playing way above your bankroll. If I could erase the losses from these three nights, I would have about $3000 more in my accounts. These expeditions into the higher limits has reinforced basic bankroll management points for me:
(1) play within your bankroll,
(2) beats can happen at any time, even when you’re playing your very best poker, and
(3) if you do take a shot at higher limits, you have to live with the fact that you might erase 6 months worth of winnings in a single session.

2007

So, where do I go from here? Goals for 2007 --

Cash games:
(1) I need to find games as good as Party used to be. Do they exist?
(2) Build the bankroll back to its previous heights. I want $3000 in each on-line account.
(3) Keep playing live cash games at the biggest levels offered locally.
(4) In Vegas, take a shot at a bigger NL game, like $10/20 blinds -- I’m ready for that challenge.

SNGs:
(1) Play more SNGs than cash games on-line. Taking all of 2006 into account, I’ve had better success at SNGs than cash games.
(2) Keep ROI above 20%.
(3) Play 300+ SNGs at the mid levels.

Tournaments:
(1) Keep playing the CT weekly, improve overall results. Primary goal is make final tables.
(2) Occasionally play the weekly Ameristar tournament.
(3) Play in the Wynn Classic $500 event in February.
(4) Play in a WSOP event, around $2000 buy-in.
(5) Play in as many Vegas daily tournaments as I can cram in when I’m there.
(6) Play MORE aggressive in tournaments. I’m starting to firmly believe the strategy of “build up a big stack with LAG play.” It saves time in the long run because I build up a stack to be the bully and last longer (and have more fun), or I bail out early and move on to more lucrative tables.

Other games and other stuff:
(1) Get better at Omaha high.
(2) Get better at 7-stud high-low. I played this occasionally, cash games and SNGs, I like it. Oddly, it doesn’t confuse me like Omaha-8 does.
(3) Find out if there’s another game out there that is like the early days of on-line NLHE, where you can make gobs of easy money.
(4) I purchased a 20” plat-panel LCD TV from the poker bankroll in 2006 (which I now watch while playing on-line – is that a good thing?). I’m aiming to pay for a Dell laptop and wireless connection from the poker bankroll in 2007, in addition to the Vegas trips.
(5) Including money withdrawn for rewards and trips, get lifetime poker winnings to $25,000+ in 2007.

Aces

2006-08-30T23:30:00.000-04:00

After several misplayed hands, I am starting to see that the old adage “win a small pot or lose a big pot with aces” is really true. Here is one trouble hand:

Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 5: SpeakEasy_ ( $219.10 )
Seat 4: Villain ( $197.25 )
SpeakEasy_ posts small blind [$1].
Rogue166 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SpeakEasy_ [ Ad As ]
Everyone fold to Button
Villain raises [$6].
SpeakEasy_ raises [$14].
BB folds.
Villain calls [$9].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2h, Qs, 6s ]
SpeakEasy_ bets [$18].
Villain calls [$18].

** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
SpeakEasy_ bets [$65].
Villain calls [$65].

** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
SpeakEasy_ is all-In [$121.10]
Villain is all-In [$99.25]
SpeakEasy_ shows [ Ad, As ] a pair of aces.
Villain shows [ Kc, Qh ] two pairs, kings and queens.
SpeakEasy_ wins $21.85 from side pot #1 with a pair of aces.
Villain wins $393.50 from the main pot with two pairs, kings and queens.

Critical analysis of the way I played this hand:
First, I think my PF raise is OK. I want to build a bigger pot, but I really don’t want to scare him away. He could have a wide range of hands, but if he calls its probably something other than complete junk. I could have raised more, to maybe $20, but I don’t think that would have changes the outcome.

On the flop, I almost certainly have the best hand. I probably bet too small, but he also probably calls a pot-sized bet anyway. So, this is somewhat of a mistake on my part, but it still gives me the information that I need to proceed -- he very likely has a queen. At this point, I’d put him on AQ, KQ, QJ or QT, probably not QQ, but that’s also possible. A heart draw is also likely. He could also have a set or AK, but that’s less likely.

I kind of goof on the turn. I think a smaller bet here gives me all the info that I need. I bet the pot, but if I bet maybe a 2/3 bet and get called this should still signal trouble. A 2/3 bet is enough to correctly price out the heart draw. If I make a slightly smaller bet here and get called, I should be thinking about seeing the cheapest possible showdown from this point forward and cross my fingers. AK becomes a possibility, because I would probably call here with AK also, but KQ is now a serious concern.

My river push is just awful. I should be trying to see the showdown without putting in any more money. He’s only going to call this if he has me beat, or possibly if he has AK. At the time, I was thinking that he was calling the turn with either a draw or AK. I didn’t think this through enough to give KQ enough serious consideration. A smaller bet would induce a bad call with AK, which I want. Just a horrible play on the river.

I’ve stacked players with similar hands. The most recent was my KJ vs AA. I raised in MP PF. Villain re-raised a substantial amount on the button, which I actually liked because I immediately thought AA. I flopped 2 pair, checked the flop, and he pushed.

Focusing on the bigger picture, AA usually just remains a one-pair hand all the way to the river. Most of my profit in NL cash games comes from sneaky sets, straights and flushes. I have learned to avoid big pots with one pair and even two-pair hands. A decent amount of my wins comes from playing the flop aggressively when I whiff, such as raising PF with AK or AQ, getting a raggedy flop, and simply betting big to represent a big PP. Usually this results in a fold unless my isolated opponent flopped a sneaky big hand or also has a decent overpair (TT or better).

But AA leads to frequent overplaying. My mentality is to continue to treat AA the same way as if I flopped a set, which is just assigning too much strength on the flop. The hand above is a perfect example. If I had JJ or TT instead of AA, I would naturally be much more cautious, and absolutely would not put my stack at risk. I think the best plan with AA going forward is to make the price seriously steep PF, and then treat my hand as I would treat TT or JJ on the flop, in terms of relative strength.

This way, I’m much less likely to get stacked in this manner again, and I’m getting my money into the pot when I am the clear favorite rather than when I might be the favorite. In a NL cash game, AA is the only hand where I should move the ‘pressure point’ to PF action, in order to avoid trouble and misplaying later, at the risk of telling the table what I’ve got PF. I’ll win the big money later with bigger hands.

When Not To Push

2006-08-27T00:19:00.000-04:00

Something to remember...

In this hand, my big turn bet looked like I was on a diamond draw, and also had the effect of getting lots of money in when I was the favorite. This then induces his river push (with a pitifully small remaining stack, unfortunately), because he thinks I missed my diamond draw. If I had pushed the turn, its almost 100% that he folds.

Now if I can only make this play work against a bigger stack.

Setting a Solid Player on Tilt

2006-08-24T01:31:00.000-04:00

Here is the hand of the night (not the biggest pot, but the most interesting to analyze) from last Thursday night.

First, the set-up:

Villain is the same guy from this hand. Excellent player, sitting to my immediate left. He moved from another table when two short-handed tables consolidated. He’s clearly stuck, and he’s playing big pots with solid hands in an effort to double up.

On one prior hand, I has Ac-Kc in the SB. 6 limpers around to be. I think about raising, but just call. Villain then raises to $30. All but one other player folds. Villain has about $250 or so behind. I think about just pushing, because I think he’s on a steal. I should have pushed, but I just call. Flop is 8-4-2, and Villain pushes. Other player folds.. I think for a while then fold. I show him my AKs and say, “This could have been a fun hand.”

He looks surprised, and then shows me a deuce. I ask what he would have done if I had just pushed PF after his raise. He says, “Well, if I had pocket deuces I would have definitely called.”

I replied, “Yeah, like you didn’t.” He just smiles, confirming (I believe) that he hit a set of deuces on the flop. But that was an odd push rather then check if he hit his set, so maybe he really had junk, like the Hammer or something...

So, back to the hand in question.

I have about $1100 and have everyone covered. I am UTG with Kd-Qs, and I raise to $20. Four callers, including Villain. Pot is about $85.

Flop is Td-9d-3s. I bet out $40. Villain pushes. Everyone else folds. Pot is now $289, and its $129 more for me to call. I think for a long time, and here’s where I end up:

Villain has either has (1) a diamond flush draw, or (2) a decent but not great hand, like maybe a pair of tens, something like JT or AT. Since he’s stuck, I believe he would push a diamond flush draw. I don’t think he has a great land like a set or two pair because I’m fairly certain that he would have checked to induce a bet, and then pushed. I don’t think he has a big overpair, like AA through JJ -- I think he would have checked either of those hands, also, to induce a bet and then push.

So where does that leave me? I think that I have between 7 and 10 outs -- any J for the straight (maybe less the Jd), any K and any Q (maybe less then Qd). I run some calculations for all of these possibilities in my head and then say, “I’m getting over 2 to 1 on my money, so I think I have to call.”

He replies, “Ace king?”

I say, “No, not that good.” I show my K-Q and he reveals Q-T, no diamonds. Just about exactly one of the two hands that I put him on. So I actually have 7 outs, or runner-runner flush.

The final board is Td-9d-3s-Kc-8h, and I win with a pair of kings.

Villain starts berating me. “What a terrible call! Horrible!” He proceeds to stomp out of the poker room. Very uncharacteristic behavior -- he’s always been Mr. Cool. I guess he’s not used to losing. I wish he would have rebought, but it was late.

So I’ve been wondering ever since whether I calculated correctly and if the math backs up my decision. Was my call right? With calculator and pencil in hand, here’s what I come up with:

First his range of hands. Since I’m torn between flush draw and one pair, I’ll say 50% flush draw and 50% one pair. I think he would push with the nut flush draw or a lower flush draw. To run some calculations for the hands I’m guessing, lets say he has these combinations:

Ad-Xd -- 25% probability
6d-7d -- 25%
Q-T -- 50%

My equities for each hand:

Against Ad-Xd, he is a 75/25 favorite.
75% x -129 = -97
25% x +297 = 74
My total equity = -23

Against 6d-7d, he is a 55/45 favorite.
55% x -129 = -71
45% x +297 = 134
My total equity = 63

Against Q-T, he is a 69/31 favorite.
69% x -129 = -89
31% x +297 = 92
My total equity = 3

-23 x 25% = -6
63 x 25% = 16
3 x 50% = 1
My total equity for the hand is about +11. This is close to a coin flip, but this justifies a call.

If his hands was turned up and I could see his actual hand, its still a call, as my equity vs. Q-T alone is roughly a coin-flip but just positive.

So, I did calculate correctly in the heat of battle and made the right call. However, I don’t think I could ever convince him that I was right...

Thursday Night Live Play

2006-08-18T03:06:00.000-04:00

Had another opportunity to play live tonight. Cash games and the Ameristar tournament.

First I started with some NL, won a few hundred. Then in the tournament, I came out of the gates firing. I played 3 of the first 4 pots. On the fourth hand, I hit a flush on the turn with Qd-7d, we got all the chips in the middle in a very large pot with lots of dead money, and one guy called my all-in bet with 2 pair. He hit a 4-outer for a boat on the river, and I was out in about 5 minutes of play.

The was actually fortunate. Next I sat in the $15/30 limit game, waiting for a NL seat. Won about a hundred. Then moved to a NL table with a bunch of old farts and one younger guy. I stacked the younger guy, then requested to move to the action table with lots of young guns.

I mopped up at that table. I started by played relatively loose pre-flop, tight on the flop, and just punished one guy mercilessly. He's a yappity guy that plays all the time, and acts very cocky. I initially took his stack of about $400, then he rebought out of frustration to come after me. I took some more of that. He eventually crapped out to someone else.

I'm not sure how much I won for the night -- I'll count tomorrow. The funny thing at this last table was that after I built up a stack of about $1400, I got junk for a really long time and didn't play anything. During one stretch, I think I folded for 3 straight orbits, while everyone else kept limping and calling standard raises. I was playing the tightest at the table with the biggest stack. There's just nothing good about playing T-2, J-5, 9-4, etc. There was so much limping with junk and calling that bluffing would have been useless.

When I did play a hand, it was relatively good, but still players kept calling when they were beat. One guy finally called out that I was playing pretty tight, and I was able to use his perception of my image to bluff him out of a good pot on the river. Paying attention to how others perceive you at the table is always important.

Saturday Night Variance

2006-08-13T17:37:00.000-04:00

Before Saturday night, I’d been running good in August in NL cash games. I’ve posted wins in 12 of my 15 prior sessions in August for a total win of 253BBs.

Saturday night, I played in a multi-table SNG on FullTilt. I am at the final table with a 3800 stack. Blinds are a huge 300-600, in relation to the stacks. (The more I play SNG or tournaments on FullTilt, the less I like them – the levels are way too short.) Everyone but 2 or 3 players is in the “push or fold” zone. Folded to me on the button with KhJd. I push as a 60-40 favorite against a random hand, but BB calls with QQ so I am actually a 72-28 dog, and I’m out.

Soon thereafter, in a $1/2NL cash game, I flop a set of 555 in the BB in a 6-handed limped pot. I have less than a full stack. Board is 8-K-5 rainbow. I check, UTG bets the pot. I C/R all-in when it gets back to me after one caller. UTG calls with a set of 888, so I lose a buy in. I hate set over set – there’s just no way to avoid losing a big pot.

PartyPoker $1/2NL, I have AA in the cutoff with more than a full buy-in. Folded to me and I raise to $7. Button raises to $37. Folded around to me, I flat call, thinking he has AA, KK, AK, or maybe QQ with such a large PF raise. Flop is Ks-Qs-8d. Yuck, unless he has AK. I bet 2/3 pot, he raises the pot. I call, then push the turn of (Ks-Qs-8d)-3s. He calls with a set of KKK. I clearly should have folded to any aggression on the flop – my instincts immediately said “SET” on the flop, but I just ignored it in favor of AK, because my flat call could have made him think I had something less, like maybe JJ which would lead to his aggression with AK.

The damage for the night was about $370.

Now as I type this on Sunday, I’m over $600 on one $1/2NL table, so all is right again.

Critical Self-Analysis

2006-08-06T17:24:00.000-04:00

In a rare moment of openly critical self-evaluation, here are leaks and how I can improve my play. What are the causes of most of my losses and losing sessions?

Playing Tired --
On-line, I only play at night, after the kids are in bed. This is usually after 9:30 or 10:00. At this point in the evening, especially after a full day of work, I’m always tired to some degree. I should avoid playing on those nights when I’m really tired. I also have a tendency to play after midnight if the table is really good, or if I’m behind. I should set a mandatory quitting time at midnight and stick to it. If I’m ahead at the midnight hour is approaching, I should just stop and book a win.

For the rare live session, I only play on weekend evenings, and occasionally the Thursday night tournament at Ameristar. Since live sessions are such a rare event, I just play no matter how I’m feeling. To avoid being tired during these sessions, I should focus on getting some extra sleep in the few days before a live session. Maybe this means no on-live play in the night or two before a planned live session.

Play immediately after a bad beat --
This only applies to on-line play. Immediately after a bad beat, I am more prone to loosen up and ramp up my aggression. Its not really ‘tilt’, but it has some of the symptoms of tilting. For example, in my last on-line session, I took a beat with my QQ vs TT. After carefully coaxing his stack into the pot though action on all streets, villain spiked a ten on the river. A few hands later on another table, I overplayed J9 on a jack-high board, and villain called with KJ, beating me with a better kicker. On the river, he checked and I pushed (my remaining stack was about 60% of the pot size) -- my judgment was clouded and my only thought was that he missed a flush draw. I would not have built such a big pot with J9, and I would have checked behind on the river, if I had not just taken a bad beat. My punishment for this leak on this particular hand was nearly a full buy-in. Ouch.

Playing above my bankroll --
On-line, I still have the urge to play at the higher levels, since that’s closer to my play in live games. My July disaster as a result of playing above my on-line bankroll is well-documented in another post. I have to stay at the appropriate level until I build the bankroll back up, no matter how good I think I’m playing on any particular night.

Taking advantage of a problem --
One trend that I’ve noticed in my play is the psychological affect of the magic $1000 mark. If I have $700 in one particular account, for example, I play my very best poker in an effort to get that account up to $1000. This applies to tournaments, SNGs and cash games. Then when I get it up to $1200 or $1300, my play becomes more sloppy, because the next thousand-dollar increment, at $2000, is much farther away. To both combat this problem AND to take advantage of it, after I cross a $1000 increment, I should transfer funds to another site to keep that account a few hundred below the next $1000 mark. This way, I’m always striving to cross the $1000 threshold through better play, which is just within my reach. As I write this now, I realize how silly this is. But, its still true. I can take advantage by turning my problem into a game strategy.

August Goals

2006-08-06T17:23:00.000-04:00

Stay with the Running Back Plan -- 2% bankroll wins per session.

Play about 60 table-hours in August.

Continue playing $.50/1 and recover from the mid-July “Playing Over My Bankroll” debacle until I reach $2000 on Party. Then, move back up to the $1/2NL game on Party. Continue to pound the $1/2NL game for 20+BB/table-hour on Party.

Get Party bankroll to $3000 by the end of August
Get FullTilt and Pstars bankrolls each to $1000+ by the end of August.

When my on-line bankroll reaches $5000, pull some $$ out and buy a Dell laptop and wireless modem. Continue to pound the $1/2NL games from other locations in my home.

Play at least one live Thursday night tournament at Ameristar. [DONE]
Play two live NL cash sessions.
Win at least $600 in live games/tournaments.

Play the CT Thursday night tournaments with more focus.

Don’t move up in levels too fast, and especially don’t move up when I hit a bad beat. Do not chase bad beat losses.

Build up the bankroll to play in bigger live games and tournaments, to pay for trips to Vegas and other fun stuff as rewards for my play.

Worst Fold Ever

2006-08-06T17:02:00.000-04:00

This is easily the worst fold I've ever seen: http://www.pokerhand.org/?443630 . The pot is $366 and its another sixty cents for Villain to call. I'm sure I had him beat, but this is just a silly fold.

I put him on AK with my raise on the flop, but with his call maybe he had a jack. Then he bets the turn, so it could still be either of these hands, but less likely that he has AK with my flop raise. He must have assumed I had the flush on the river, but then why bet? Unless he has complete air, this is just a horrible fold. Even AK is obviously worth a call.

Best Hand So Far

2006-07-24T00:57:00.000-04:00

I played live last Thursday – my single best night ever. About 30 minutes of $3/6 limit to pass the time while waiting for some real tables – down about $75. 1 hour of $2/5 NLHE cash games – won over $500. I absolutely tore that table up, and it was very hard to leave. Then the Ameristar Thursday evening 60 player tournament ($120 buy in), made the final table 2nd in chips, and 10 players chopped up the prize pool, with 1st and 2nd taking $1000.

Total win on the night was $1336. I’ve had bigger wins in a single evening (or during a single day in Vegas), but this was by best evening ever in terms of the quality of my play.

I was in a zone. With the exception of a couple of mistakes, my reads were dead on, and I was very patient. In the tournament, I played the aggressive bully when I was the big stack, which is so fun. I was never all-in for my tournament life. I didn’t get exceptionally lucky, I avoided getting unlucky, and generally I avoided relying on luck to weave my way through the tournament.

During the middle stage of the tournament, with blinds at 50/100, this hand came up:

I am BB. Folded to Villain on the button, who just limps in. I have played with Villain many times, and he is one of the best 3 or 4 players in KC that I have played against. I’ve played against with him at the $2/5 and $5/10 NL games, and I’ve watched him absolutely mop up. I’ve seen him leave with over $8000 in the $5/10 game. Extremely aggressive, very hard to read, calm as Phil Ivey, very observant. (He owns a chain of barbeque restaurants in KC, and the rumor is that he’s very well off.) I have him covered by a bit, but he is 2nd or 3rd in chips at the table behind me.

SB folds, and I check. I have no idea what Villain holds. Flop is Ah-Qs-8h. I check, and Villain bets 300. I call.

Turn is (Ah-Qs-8h)-3h. I lead out for 850 – the size of the pot. Villain thinks for about 10 seconds, and then folds KK face up and says, “That’ll teach me for trying to get cute.”

Looking back, I’m not exactly sure why I called on the flop. Something told me that I could possibly take this pot away later, or maybe that he was scared of the ace. When the turn card came out, I remember looking at him briefly and then making a pot-sized bet based on my read. I had no deep analytical thought about the hand – it was pure instinct. Without this type of strong read, I would have normally checked and probably abandoned ship. This is why I want to get more time at live play – to improve my reads and act at an instinctual level, without having to internally verbalize an analysis of the hand.

This may seem like a routine hand and it was actually a very minor skirmish in the tournament, but after he folded I was extremely proud of acting strongly based on my read. Especially since he is one the best players I’ve played against in KC, and he was easily the best player at my table.

I had 5d-5c.

A Classic Blunder

2006-07-17T01:08:00.000-04:00

So I have been crushing the $1/2NL on Party, and last Thursday night I decide, “You know, I’m kind of bored with vanilla poker. I’m easily as good as the players at $2/4, $3/6, and probably $5/10. The $5/10 game is more the level that I play live. I can hang in those games on-line, easy.”

Well, that may be true, but when you only have several buy-ins and hit a bad stretch, it can be a bankroll crusher. So, in the course of 2 nights, I proceeded to dump back almost all of the profits since the beginning of June. A few bad beats lead to over-aggressive play to “get is back,” and poof, I’m back where I started.

A classic, stupid, bankroll management mistake. And the Running Back Plan has been working perfectly.

“Clearly, much of the stress and anxiety occurring in poker is a short
bankroll. This stems from a kind of paradox: In order for a win to have
meaning, we overplay our bankroll. But this in turn brings the
annoyance/anger factor into play and takes us off our dispassionate, detached
view.”

Zen and the Art of Poker, p.52.

Bingo. This is exactly what I was feeling. I need a bigger challenge. If I can make 23 BB at $1/2, then I can double or triple my net $win that at the next levels, right?. Well, maybe. But, I lost sight of the fact that if I hit a few bad beats it can have a devastating effect on my bankroll, especially if I amp up the aggression to get it back quickly.

So, its back to baby steps on the Running Back Plan. I’m resetting, and I commit to stick to the level that’s appropriate for my bankroll. Crush the level I’m on until I have enough to very comfortably move up and take several bad beats without the slighted affect on my overall bankroll.

The System at Work

2006-07-12T21:33:00.000-04:00

The Running Back Plan results thus far:
10 days of play
30 levels achieved (2% of on-line bankroll per level)
23.5 table-hours
$1460 won at $1/2NL
$46 per table/hour
23 BB won per table hour

Since I started the “Running Back Plan,” my results have been like magic. I started this plan on June 20th, and I took a week vacation in there. I’ve played on 10 different days. On these 10 days, I’ve increased 31 “levels,” with each level being a win of 2% of my total on-line bankroll, rounded to the nearest $10.

At the start, 2% was $40. At the current level I’m working on (level 31), 2% is $70. My total win in these 10 days has been $1460. Most importantly, I’ve had 19 winning sessions out of 21 sessions. The way I’ve been recording things, a session is any time I have at least one cash table open. I’ve recorded more than one session on a single day by playing at more than one time in a day (only on the weekend), or playing one or more cash tables, then playing a SNG or tournament, and then opening up one or more cash tables again.

My complete focus has been simply winning a modest amount to book a win and reach the next level. With the constant focus of reaching the next level, I’ve been more focused than ever before at cash games. Traditionally, playing SNGs or a tournament provides focus – win the table or the tournament – while playing cash games just seems like a never-ending grind.

But, with the Running Back approach, I have a constant goal in cash games. I’m conscious of reaching the next level. These levels are simply a different method of characterizing progressive wins, but the levels provide a focus and a goal that really works for me. I enjoy the focus of winning enough in each session to reach the next “level,” then playing around to UTG and logging out to book a winning session and reach the next level. Then opening 1 or 2 tables and winning the next $60 to reach the next “level,” repeat, repeat.
I haven’t played perfect poker, and I haven’t been running especially good. Overall, I’m making more well-reasoned decisions, and thinking through each decision, because I’m conscious of the fact that each decision affects whether I reach the next level. Its really working.

Big Mother Bad Beat

2006-07-01T02:02:00.000-04:00

Everyone bitches about bad beats. Statistically speaking, what is the worst possible bad beat?

I am proud to say that I have lived through what I believe to be the worst possible bad beat in hold ‘em. In a way, I’m kind of proud that this happened -- its like climbing to the summit of a 14,000-foot mountain. I have reached the pinnacle of bad beats, I have survived, and every other beat I will suffer in my poker career is just a minor irritant that dreams to be this truly horrendous beat, which I shall henceforth call the “Big Mother Bad Beat,” or just the Big Mother.

So, what is this Big Mother that I’m talking about? Let me describe it through this two-part analysis:

First, to set up the Big Mother, you need to flop a monster. Everyone likes to throw out the word “monster.”

“I flopped a monster!”

Oh yeah? What was it? A set? Maybe the nut flush? You call that a monster? I scoff at your puny monster.

The set up for the Big Mother is flopping a truly savage, evil, flesh-eating demon from Hell. A monster that children fear from under their bed, that they believe really exists. The Balrog from the Mines of Moria is close. Only a monster of enormous proportions qualifies for the Big Mother Bad Beat. I shall call this monster the “Sexy Beast,” and it consists of only two very select hands -- flopping quads or a straight flush.

Now, let’s take a moment to ponder the Sexy Beast. On those very rare occasions when we are blessed with a Sexy Beast, it is a bittersweet moment. You have an iron-clad lock on the hand, and your only concern is how to coax your opponent’s chips into the pot. Unfortunately, this is often impossible. When you flop a Sexy Beast, there is a very likely chance that your opponent has zilch, and he will dump the hand like yesterday’s girlfriend unless he feels the urge to run a bluff.

Second, now that we’ve flopped a Sexy Beast, how can this build into the Big Mother? Only one single scenario qualifies: your opponent is drawing dead except for two cards in the deck, which must appear in perfect succession on the turn and the river. Only if he catches perfect with those two cards, can he slay your Sexy Beast. Not a one-outer, which he has two chances to hit, but instead a two-outer that he has to hit in succession.

And, to make matters more difficult, the flop has to be an exact arrangement of cards that actually convinces him to put more chips into the pot on the flop rather than mucking. And, even more chips again on the turn, ideally his whole stack. This is nearly impossible, unless your opponent is just stupid.

What is the probability of the Big Mother occurring? I have no idea, but I know that its really improbable. Someone who’s better at statistics than me can calculate the odds of this happening.

By now you’re thinking, “Holy shit, man, that a lot of rambling for a single hand Can you get to the point?”

Okay, so now, I reveal to you the Big Mother Bad Beat.

Flopped quads beat by runner-runner quads. And I didn’t slow-play, either, so I should get bonus points.

After this hand, I wept tears of joy, for I had survived the Big Mother. And, fortunately, my opponent was on a shortish stack, so it all worked out nicely because I didn’t lose too much.

Twice I have suffered a one-out beat on the river for really big pots, but neither of those hands is as improbable as your opponent hitting two perfect cards on the turn and river.

The Running-Back Attack

2006-07-01T01:47:00.000-04:00

I am implementing a new bankroll growth plan. I thought of a football analogy. Often in poker, no-limit cash game play resembles an aggressive passing attack in football. Players often take higher-risk shots at big money, like a long bomb that has a lower chance of completion but a higher reward in terms of yardage. Most poker players, by their nature, are always striving for the quick, big score. It’s the American way, right?

On the other hand, there is the running attack in football. If you have a rock-solid running back that can pound out an average of 3.5 yards per carry, you can slowly march down the field, wear down the opponent, and punch it in for the score.

It has occurred to me that the best way to build a bankroll in cash games is through a series of slow, steady, lower-risk winning sessions, like a steady ground game in football, rather than shoot-the-moon attempts to double up each session like a long passing attack. The passing attack is more exciting, but a solid running game can be just as effective with lower risk.

I think my play is more suited to a running game. A slow, steady march, built on tight hand selection and aggressive play when I am ahead. I am still very willing to use the passing attack and get all my chips in the pot when I am ahead, if the situation calls for it, but that puts me at higher risk if my opponent outdraws me. I’m otherwise content with solid running game in the form of winning a succession of smaller pots at lower risk.

So, how can I put this “running game” strategy into play? Here’s how: win exactly 1% of my total overall bankroll in each session. One “level” in the progression is however long it takes to win 1% of my bankroll. On-line, this means knowing the next 1% benchmark when I sit down, and leaving the table when I hit that benchmark (actually, play the current orbit until just before the BB hits again), thereby locking in the 1% profit. If I sit at a table with a buy-in that is roughly 5% of my total bankroll, I’ll need to win roughly 1/5 of my starting stack to hit the 1% goal for the session. Not so hard to achieve if I’m playing a solid game. Leaving the table after I hit the next benchmark level locks in the profit and moves me up the ladder. Then I buy in to another table where the players do not have a read on my playing style, and repeat.

I’ve run a spreadsheet that shows the progression of bankroll growth by simply winning 1% each time. Although 1% at $40 and $50 chunks does not seem like much, its amazing how fast the bankroll grows with this progression. If you start with a $1,800 bankroll, for example, after 35 levels you will have doubled to over $3,600. After 50 levels, you will have over $4,800. After 100 sessions, you will have over $13,000.

The approach is that you are playing a lower risk strategy because you take the profit off the table after hitting the benchmark. This is ideally suited for on-line play, because jumping around on the tables is so easy. There’s an argument to be made that leaving after a modest win prevents you from making a big hit and doubling or tripling up. Its always possible to hit a big hand at any time and jump up several levels in the progression. If I’m sitting at a very good table with obvious fish or LAGs just waiting to be picked off, I will keep playing after I hit the next 1% benchmark to take advantage of the situation.

Although this strategy might seem ideally suited for limit games, I think its actually better suited for NL play because there is lower variance in NL. You can control the pot size, price out drawing hands, etc., and I’m much better at NL than limit. But it can work either way.

I’ve already put this strategy into play for 10 days. I’m through 19 levels and up over $800, with 11 winning sessions and 3 losing sessions (some of the “sessions” have been jumps in multiple levels). I’m playing roughly the same game, but I’m playing tighter, more aggressive, and I’m making better laydowns. Sessions of $40 and $50 wins add up nicely – no single session is a huge win (unless I hit a couple successive big hands), but I’m posting a lot more winning sessions.

Unless I’m hitting cold cards or tired and playing poorly, I can complete several levels in the span of a few hours of play (open 2 tables, complete a level, close that table and open another, repeat, repeat). The structure that I’m adding to my game may just be an illusion, but it gives me more focus each time I play, because there is a very specific goal for each session -- hit the next level. Each time I leave a table, I’ve progressed a level, which feels like a small, but important, accomplishment. For me, achieving a series of mini-goals and measuring the progress step-by-step is better than just playing, and its more fun. It’s the cure for those players that lament “Cash games are boring because I’m just playing hand after hand.” The progression in levels breaks up any monotony.

I’m a goal-oriented person, and this may just be what I need to make more steady progress and build up a bankroll to pay for some more trips and buy into some bigger live games and tournaments.

Holding Steady

2006-06-28T02:16:00.000-04:00

We are gearing up for a family vacation. With that plus work, plus birthday celebrations, plus family in town, I haven’t been able to focus much on my game. When I have found time to play, I’ve been tired and fairly unfocused.

Last night I was able to play for a while. It was a session of really cold cards, coupled with my inability to focus very well on my opponents play. So, I found myself just trying to avoid trouble, steal a pot here and there, and float along to keep even. Yuck. Then, on a couple of hands I got nut flush draws on the flop and found myself pushing and gambling.

It’s the type of play that I hope to see my opponents make, so I know that I was making bad plays. Or at least sub-optimal plays, since at least one of my opponents should have folded rather than calling with a relatively weak hand. As I was doing it, I was conscious of the fact that I was making gambling plays, but I couldn’t stop myself. I didn’t hit, so I was suddenly down two buy-ins. I hate playing for an extended period of time, floating along, and then dropping like a stone at the end.

So, I opened one more table to regain some losses, and I redoubled my effort to focus. Usually, a session like this ends with losses compounded on losses. Fortunately, in one big pot, I hit a lucky set on the river with jacks to come from behind and stack one opponent. It made up for a good chunk of the losses for the evening, and this makes up for some of the beats I’ve been through in the past. I’ll just count it as luck evening out. But, when you win though a bad beat, it’s a reminder that you’re making bad decisions and getting your money with the worst of it.

So, with the WSOP approaching, I’m a bit down about where things stand for me in poker, at this point. After my WSOP experience last year, my goal was to improve my game and return to the WSOP again this year. I had planned to play in the same $2000NL event as last year, or possibly a bigger game. I thought that there might be an outside chance that I could build up my bankroll enough to play in the Main Event this year, but I simply haven’t focused enough to work up to that level. I’ve also gone through a super-LAG learning period that took a bite out of my bankroll this winter. At least I’ve tried out several different styles and I have a better sense of what kind of play works the best for me.

But, our weekends are filled with activities through July and August. Its very unlikely that I will be able to make it to Vegas in July during the WSOP. And, even if I were able to make it there, it would be a significant bite in my bankroll to play in a WSOP event. I could swing it, but I would have to devote about 1/5 or 1/4 of my bankroll to one tournament.

I think I would be just as satisfied with playing a few $500 or $1000 events in Vegas, rather than one bigger WSOP event. A couple of noon Wynn tournaments, a Bellagio evening tournament, and a Caesars evening tournament, combined with cash game play would suit me fine. The poker energy in Vegas during the WSOP is electric, no matter where you play.

Do you trust your read?

2006-06-18T19:34:00.000-04:00

Live game Friday night, NL with $2/5 blinds. I’m in seat 1, on the button with QJo. Seat 7 is a 25-year old chatty player. Tight and seemed decent. He raised to $20. Two callers, I call, and button calls.

Flop is J-7-3, rainbow. He checks, others check to me, and I bet $60. BB folds, Seat 7 calls fairly quickly, and the others fold. Now we’re heads up.

My read is that he has AJ, AQ or AK, maybe AT. Why? It was mostly instinct – I just sort of felt it. Thinking back to the hand, I guess the reason was his check on the flop, and quick call thinking that I was making a play on the button since everyone checked, hoping to take the pot from me later. I was leaning against AJ, because he likely would have bet that flop in a multi-way pot with a junky flop.

Turn was a [J-7-3]-4. He checked, and I checked behind. This was my first mistake.

River is [J-7-3-4]-K. He bets $150 into a ~$220 pot. I sat back and studied him for a good long while. This was the first time in a long time (since I’ve been playing mostly on-line), that I’ve “stared someone down.” I just relaxed and watched, trying to get a read.

At this point, I was 50/50 on whether he had AQ or AK. This would require a call, since I was getting more than 2 to 1 from the pot of $370. Based on his past play, it could be either AQ or AK, and if he had AQ I thought that he was betting with the thought that he would push me off a jack, or I simply had a draw on the flop with something like T9. His bet was larger that what I would think he would value-bet on the river if he had AK.

I loaded up $150 for the call, set it in front of me, and watched some more for a reaction. He seemed really nervous, and now he was bouncing in his seat and fidgeting with chips. He normally shuffled and fiddled, but this was clearly nervous fiddling. I read this as weakness, and that he didn’t want a call. So I was leaning toward call, maybe 55/45, still very close. Now the turning point for my decision became calling just to see if my read was correct.

So I called. He had AK.

Reflecting on the hand and his reaction, I think he just got really nervous being watched so intently for so long. I didn’t think of that at the time.

While he was stacking his chips, he looked at me and said "Sorry." He meant it -- he was a nice guy. I think there was a bit of guilt in hitting on the river, and that contributed to the nervousness.

I should have raised the river, or just pushed -- I'm almost positive he would have folded, since we both had over $1000 behind. Damn.

Super Secret Blog

2006-06-18T01:05:00.000-04:00

So far, I'm the only one reading this blog. I know this because I haven't told anyone about it yet.

Is that strange? Sort of. I wonder who will read this, or if I will even tell anyone about it. I've presumed that this could be found through some type of search, but I don't really know.

Isn't the point of writing a blog to have the masses read and participate? I guess so, but that doesn't seem to the reason that I am writing this.

Maybe some day I'll win the WSOP main event, and then this will be the cool thing to read.

Yeah, right.

Volatility and the Challenge

2006-06-18T00:59:00.000-04:00

I played live poker last night, which I don’t get to do nearly often enough. I played just OK. I played well on about 90% of the hands that I played (didn’t fold PF). Playing 10% of your hands badly can be costly errors in NLHE. I misplayed 3 critical hands for a loss of about $225, and I got very unlucky on one hand for about $300, which accounts for the total loss of $525 on the night. The remainder of my hands were a mix of good plays and OK plays, for break even poker.

Tonight, after I had a very long 45-minute reading session with the kids (a whole Berenstein Bears chapter book in one sitting!), I decided to sit for some 6-handed $3/6 NL. After about 10 minutes, I drop a buy-in when I flop a set, we get all the chips in the middle and opponent hits a gutshot straight draw on the river. (All-in on a gut-shot draw – what the hell are these people thinking?!)

So I sit at another table, and after about 5 minutes I’ve cleaned two players out and I’m sitting on about $1400, just like that, more than making up for the initial buy-in that I dropped. Huge swings, and I was only looking to sit for a while and play some easy poker. You’ve got to bring it each and every time. No-limit can produce giant pots in a heartbeat, and when the cards hit you can’t hesitate to put your whole stack at risk. Do not play unless you’re willing to take these risks and can live with the consequences without tilting.

I closed the table where I was the big stack to lock in the profits and get away from two very tricky players, and as I type this I’m up about $130 on another table so I’m going to pack it in for the evening.

Last night, I sat next to a guy who was very chatty. We got to talking about poker in general. At one point, he said “I just love this game. The money is nice if you win, but that’s not why I play. I just enjoy playing. I love the challenge and strategy and competition.”

From time to time, I’ve wondered why I like playing so much. This pretty much sums it up.

Super Screaming Monkey Tilt

2006-06-16T01:16:00.000-04:00

I won’t say that I’m un-tiltable, but its close. The cards are random, bad beats happen, I sometimes make bad decisions, I sometimes get outplayed, and in the end I seem come out ahead. Poker is just a game, and I’m generally winning. Keep it fun.

Well, I’ve been seriously tested in the last week.

In my last several sessions, I’ve suffered the most horrendous stretch of bad beats. I won’t whine much, so indulge me. Aces cracked by kings, jacks, tens, and jacks again, all for large pots. Sets outdrawn by improbable runner-runner flushes. Two- and five-outers hitting on the river for the suckout. Each of these qualified as true bad beats, because my betting on prior streets gave my opponents improper odds to call. So, I was making the correct moves, and getting outdrawn. Repeatedly.

I wasn’t exactly tilting, but its enough to get any player peeved. When this happens, no matter how strong your resolve, you start expecting it. I found myself actually squinting and wincing in anticipatory pain when I’m heads up all-in, and the cards are being dealt out. I’m ahead with an overpair, opponent has one lower pair, and I’m just expecting him to hit a set or two pair. Then, BANG, it happens, and I can stop wincing because the pain has actually arrived.

Reload.

Last night, it all built to a fabulous crescendo. The family was gone for the evening, so I thought I’d settle in for a very rare early on-line session after work. Normally, I only play after the kids are in bed.

Earlier in the day, the phone company dug a trench in my front yard to replace important underground stuff. These are the twenty-something people who barely graduated from high school -- if they were that successful. One kid was wearing overalls and a farmer-style cap from which protruded a massive pile of hair. He looked like a country-bumpkin cartoon character, and he must have been damn hot from the hair alone.

Several days earlier, various colored dashed lines and flags appeared in my yard, marking underground cables, tubes, wires and dungeon corridors. Apparently operating a mini-bobcat with a backhoe is very tricky business. Despite glowing-bright orange, yellow, and red lines on the ground, and flags in case you can’t see the lines, they tore the cable line from the green box sitting on the corner of my lot. TV and internet connection was down for about 30 minutes when I got home, threatening to ruin an otherwise peaceful and entertaining evening.

I wandered outside to watch one guy dig, and another guy watching the guy dig. I had the urge to ask whether they try to avoid the colored marks, or instead they try to hit some of them on purpose, just to piss of the neighborhood. They were able to call upon all of their finely tuned skills and plug the wire back into the box before they left for the evening. Connection restored, evening saved.

I was playing in a Party MTT, a Party cash game, and a Stars SNG at the same time. Smooth sailing. Winning on the cash table, and for once I had no feeling of impending suckout doom. Five players left in the SNG, and I was above average and approaching the money in the MTT.

Suddenly the TV starts sputtering. I look outside, and there’s a guy from the cable company in the trench with a shovel, nosing around. I start to sporadically lose internet connection. No! Not now! I have connection -- don’t fuck with it! Its such a rare occasion that I get to play poker before 10pm, when I’m droopy-eye tired -- please don’t mess this up.

At that precise moment, there was an unbelievable harmonic convergence of good hands on all three tables. In the SNG, I had KK on the button, and I raised. SB, a smaller stack, pushed, and it was BB’s turn to act. In the MTT, the antes had just kicked in, there was a raise in EP, I had KK in the cutoff, and it was folding around to me. On the cash table, I had AKs on the button.

Then, before I could act on any of these hands, the dude in the trench cut off the connection.

I don’t normally react in situations like this, or curse at the top of my lungs. This was different. I was so pissed that I couldn’t see straight. I stomped outside and -- politely, I believe -- asked when connection would be restored.

“The phone guys damaged box.” Yeah, I knew that. “We’ll have ‘er up in about twenty minutes.”

When connection was restored, I was well below average on the MTT. Damn antes. In the SNG, my KK was folded and had lost a bunch to rapidly repeating blinds.. I still haven’t recovered from my fury, and I proceed to donk off my stack in the MTT, and bust out on the bubble in the SNG.

I closed the cash table and bailed out. Operation Peaceful Poker night was in ruins. There was no way that I would be able to play good poker any longer. So, I was way down for the week, and I was as pissed about poker as I can ever get. And, it wasn’t even the poker that got me in such a bad way. Cripes.

I went for a 2-mile jog, in the dark, to clear my head. While jogging, I made the decision that I’m tired of dinking and doinking around with low-stakes on-line poker when I play for higher stakes in live play. My on-line game was starting to feel like a drag at the lower stakes. Playing for relatively small stakes, and getting constantly punched by bad beats, was starting to just suck, and I felt like I was just wasting my time.

So, I made the decision to just put the whole on-line bankroll into action after the jog and either build up a decent bankroll quickly, back to its former status, or flame out in a blaze of glory. This goes against everything that I’ve learned and everything that I’ve taught myself in the last two years. I’ve always played well within my bankroll. I’ve segregated my live bankroll from my cash bankroll. So, while putting my entire on-line bankroll on the line is really only the equivalent of about two live buy-ins for me, its still risking the whole on-line amount. I take personal pride that I’m still building the original $200 deposit from two years ago, but things were sputtering back to start.

After I returned and showered, I sat down and scanned my options. I found a decent $3/6 6-seat NL table that looked about right. This was actually lower than I planned to play, but I gave it a shot.

To my surprise, I played very solid, and won over $400. It felt good. The tilt was completely gone. I was making good decisions, and avoiding trouble. The players in this game were clearly better, and more cautious, than the players in the $1/2 games. It was a bit tighter play, and I was able to get a solid read on each of my opponents and their styles. It may have been because my mind was clear, or because I was proceeding cautiously. I was totally focused on one table.

Whatever the reasons, it was a good end to what could have been an otherwise horrible poker night. I’m ready to continue at these stakes with the plan of building up a real on-line bankroll, so I can play at stakes that feels like it matters. I make better decisions and pay more attention at the higher stakes.

This could be a recipe for disaster, or it could be what my game needs right now. Everyone warns against jumping to higher stakes to make up for bad runs, including me. We’ll see what happens.

Epilogue: I’ve won over $1000 at the $3/6, 6-max tables. I think I’m onto something.

Defending vs. KillPhil

2006-06-09T10:02:00.000-04:00

I play in a regular Thursday night private tournament on PokerStars, with players from www.chiptalk.net. I am also reading the Kill Phil book, primarily to defend against the KillPhil strategy. I was put to the test last night.

Early in the game, I had AA cracked by QQ, and my stack was reduced to about 800. Weak-tight semi-regular player is sitting to my left. With blinds at 25/50, I am in the SB with 560 and get KQs. Solid player in MP opens with a raise to 200. Folded around to me in SB and I push. Weak-tight calls 510 more with a stack of 1522. Original raiser thinks for a long time and just calls. They check it down, and I hit trip queens and triple up to 1680. From the hand history, solid player had JJ, which is about what I put him on (99-JJ, maybe AQ), and Weak-tight player had 97s. Yikes – not Weak-tight, he’s just a Maniac tonight.

On the very next hand, LAG player in late position calls 50 with A4o. Maniac pushes in the BB with T8s, and hits trip tens for the double-up. I comment that someone has been reading the Kill Phil book, and Maniac feigns ignorance, but also makes a comment that leads me to believe he knows the strategy (which he is playing, but badly by calling too much). He also comments that he doesn’t care about the outcome of the game. (He went on to take 3rd, so I don’t buy that he doesn’t care.) He also comments that he would have called with 97s against JJ in the prior hand, which I believe.

On the next hand its folded to me in the CO. I raise to 155 with junk, and Weak-loose pushes on the Button. Blinds fold and I have to fold, also.

This, of course, is all set-up for the confrontation. On the very next hand, with blinds still at 25-50 and a stack of 1525, I get 66. I raise to 300. Maniac again pushes and has me covered. Its folded back around to me. 1370 to win a pot of 1600, giving me about 1.1 to 1 on the call.

Based on his history in this game, do I call? He’s called my short-stack all in with 97, and he’s pushed against a raise with T8. He’s showing that he is probably pushing with just about anything, so his range of possible hands is huge.

I called. He had QQ and I was bounced. Based on some PokerStove calculations, I was probably about 52/48 favorite based on his range of hands. Because these hands happened in quick succession, it was easier to make this call – he was showing all the signs of a raging maniac. If I has a slightly better hand, like 88, it would be a 58/42 advantage. Close decision.

It all worked out for the best, because I was able to focus on a few Party $1/2 NL tables and booked a $130 night – enough to cover the full quarter of entry fees in the private tournament.

A good fold is hard to beat

2006-06-08T01:04:00.000-04:00

PartyPoker $1/2 NL: +$111

More and more, I find myself judging the quality my play both by how much I’m winning, and how I make good laydowns. I hope that’s a good sign, but it feels odd to be happy about giving up a strong hand.

Yesterday I had this hand, which really pissed me off –

I’m BB with Jh6h, 5 limpers around to me, I check. Flop is 8h-9s-3h. I open for half the pot, MP and button call. Turn is [8h-9s-3h]-4h. I bet half the pot with my flush. MP mini-raises, and button calls. There’s three flushes out there that beat mine. One of these dudes must have at least the Kx flush, if not the Ax flush. I’m guessing that button has the best hand based on his flat calls. Even though I’m getting 7 to 1 on my money, I muck. MP and button play to showdown – button has a set, and MP reveals 2-pair.

Fuck. What made it extra aggravating is that I didn’t fold to a big bet, I folded to with fabulous pot odds.

So then there’s this hand today –

Seat 8: SpeakEasy_ ( $337.92 )
Seat 5: R-- ( $155.30 )
Seat 6: m-- ( $47.70 )
R-- posts small blind [$1].
m-- posts big blind [$2].

Dealt to SpeakEasy_ [ Ac Ts ]
SpeakEasy_ raises [$6].
R-- calls [$5].
m-- calls [$4].

** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 4s, Ks ]
R-- checks.
m-- checks.
SpeakEasy_ checks.

** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
R-- bets [$27.72].
m-- is all-In [$41.70]
SpeakEasy_ folds.
R-- calls [$13.98].

** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
R-- shows [ Qc, Qh ] a full house, Queens full of kings.
m-- doesn't show [ 2s, 6s ] a flush, king high.
R-- wins $98.40 from the main pot with a full house, Queens full of kings.

My read was that my straight was beat. I felt the flush, and the river boat was irrelevant to my decision. There was a time when I would never consider folding a straight.

Decent Tuesday

2006-06-07T01:26:00.000-04:00

After a few sessions of bad beats, tight play, and minimizing my losses, I've finally had a decent night.

PartyPoker $1/2 NL: +$222
3 tables, 1 hour = 3 table-hours

One table started short-handed, and there were 3 players with "tex" in their names. Lots of raising, bluffing, macho stuff. Time to sit back, let the bullies have their play, wait for a big hand. Got the stack in with AA vs. QQ against one of the Tex players, and the aces held up. Patience pays off again.

I asked him if queens look like aces in Texas. He left the table.

Poker Career So Far

2006-06-07T01:19:00.000-04:00

When I graduated from law school in 1994, a started playing poker with a group of friends. We would play something like 8 to 10 times per year, rotating from house to house. We still have this home game going today, but we only play about 4 times per year, since nearly everyone in the group has 2.3 kids and careers. Most of us are attorneys. So I’ve been playing poker for about 12 years, but I freely admit that during the first 8 years or so I didn’t really know what I was doing.

During one of our home sessions in 2002, one of the guys proposes that we play “tournament style,” like they do for the World Series of Poker. We gave it a shot, but the blind structure was really messed up and it made for an awkward evening -- three guys sitting around for about 2 hours watching the rest of us play. That was my introduction to tournament poker.

Then the WPT aired. I caught the third show by accident. I was hooked, and became a regular viewer. I had played poker once in a casino prior to 2002, back in maybe 1998. I think it was Omaha (high). After the WPT ramped up and poker started taking off nation-wide, I was in the thick of it.

I started venturing to the local riverboat casino poker room about once every 4 to 6 weeks. At the time, my daughter was 3 and my son was just born, so a night away was a very rare event.

As the 2003 WSOP approached, I learned about on-line poker, and that players could win a seat in the Main Event through satellites. I made my first $200 deposit, strictly with the goal of winning a seat in the Main Event through a satellite. I lost that $200 in the wacky crazy rebuy sats. I made another $200 deposit and gave it another shot. No luck.

My wife and I scheduled a trip to Vegas for July 2003. I bought my first poker book -- Sklansky’s Hold ‘Em for Advanced Players. I read it and re-read it in preparation for my trip. Looking back, I probably understood about 30% of what I was reading, because you really need a lot of time at the tables to understand that book.

I discovered the 2+2 site. After reading many posts about bankroll management and other basic concepts, I decided to get organized about my new hobby. I made another $200 on-line deposit right before the July 2003 Vegas trip, and devoted $1000 of my own money as a live game bankroll. My general goal was to see how far I could take my $1000 live roll and my $200 on-line roll.

The Vegas trip was a success. Tight-aggressive play at the $5/10 and $15/30 tables. I was playing somewhat above my bankroll, but I played very tight and generally avoided trouble. At this point, I was not following the world poker seen, but I heard the results of the WSOP and the Moneymaker win on the day it happened.

I started playing with more focus on-line. I played strictly at night, after the kids went to bed. I would never allow poker to become a distraction from my family. I slowly built-up my bankroll. We went to Vegas again in 2004, and I played some poker, but not as much as I would have liked since it was a trip with my wife and I didn’t want to abandon her for significant periods of time.

I started keeping records on my live play. I continued to play at the local poker rooms about every 4 or 5 weeks, continuing to build the bankroll. In January 2005, I set the goal of winning enough to pay for a July 2005 Vegas trip, and entering one of the lower buy-in WSOP events.

In June 2005, I went to Vegas a few days before my wife flew out. I played in the $2000 NLHE WSOP event. I made it to about 235th place out of over 2000 players, and I got knocked out by Spider-Man. I also played in a Bellagio $500 tournament, and win $4845, my biggest cash to date. I also played some $5/10 NLHE cash games, and won a good amount.

At this point, my combined on-line and live bankroll together was over $10,000. I had increased my starting bankroll ten-fold in about 2 years.

I had been keeping records in an Excel spreadsheet, but our computer hard drive crashed in the fall of 2005, and I lost all of the data. Stupidly, I did not have an electronic back-up or even a paper copy. I tallied the accounts up, and started over with my records.

My total bankroll reached a peak of over $11,000 in August 2005. Then I withdraw money to pay for the July Vegas trip (I balked, but my wife held me to my commitment) and I also purchased a fantastic 1000 set of Paulson Pharaoh chips. This drained a total of about $2,800 from the bankroll. In August 2005 I withdrew about $300 for a flat-panel computer monitor. After these withdrawals, my total bankroll was around $8,500.

In August 2005, the “Family Poker Debacle” occurred. I have a separate post about this occurrence. Though an unfortunate series of events, my niece unintentionally evacuated my PokerStars account to the tune of over $1646.

Christmas Day 2005 was perfect. I had an absolutely wonderful day with my wife and kids from morning ‘till the kids bedtime, playing games and having a great time. That evening, I simultaneously cashed in a PokerStars and a FullTilt tournament for a combined $1900 win. Its hard enough to cash in any tournament, and cashing in both at almost the exact same was a big surprise. I think it had a lot to do with the fact that I was very relaxed and was under no work-related stress during the holiday break.

So, by the end of 2005, I had fully recovered from the Family Poker Debacle, and the total bankroll was at about $7,500. In January 2006, I decided to take a dip into higher on-line stakes. After some bad beats, compounded by some bad plays, I got smacked back down to the lower limits.

I also started taking some hits in the live games. As I got more advanced with my play, I moved into an almost hyper- LAG stage of my poker development. This resulted in bigger swings, with some nights where I’d win $2000, followed by a few $800 losing sessions. Looking back a few months, I think I was just testing out some new techniques.

I was very aware that I was playing more loose and aggressive, but it was like a context with myself to test my live read on my opponents. I wasn’t really playing against my opponents, it was more like I was testing my own read of my opponents. In a hand, if my read was that my opponent had a mediocre hand, I would push the action in an effort to test my read and make him fold.

Unfortunately, as I learned, this style doesn’t work against weaker players. They aren’t skilled enough to see that you are sending the signal “I have a set,” and so they call with middle pair. My read was correct -- yea me -- but I still lose the pot.

So, backing off from the tricky stuff, I’ve decided to regroup on my game and get a plan of attack in May 2006. I’m back on the winning track, and I’m still playing on that original $1000 live and $200 online starting bankroll from 2003.

This blog will be an effort to set some goals and track my play.

June goal:
Build on-line bankroll to $3500

Longer term goals
Play in the Bellagio tournaments in October, if I can arrange it. Can’t make the WSOP this year (unless I win a seat on-line…)

The June $100 Challenge

2006-06-01T22:50:00.000-04:00

I started a challenge on ChipTalk in May. Isolate $100 in an on-line account, see how far you can take it during the month of May. I ran it up to $704 in 65.5 table-hours (usually playing 2 or more at a time).

By popular demand, we are repeating the challenge in June. My ridiculously over-aggressive plan for the month:

Bankroll - - - Stakes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Move up
$100 - - - - - 2 $.25/.5 tables - - - - - - - - - - - - -$300
$300 - - - - - 1 $.25/.5 table, 1 $.5/1 table - - - $400
$400 - - - - - 2 $.5/1 tables - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -$600
$600 - - - - - 2 $1/2 tables - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - $1000
$1000 - - - - 1 $1/2 table, 1 $2/4 table - - - - - - -$1400
$1400 - - - - 2 $2/4 tables

As in May, I will start very tight, avoid going broke, wait for the double-up hands, and then loosen up to my normal game as I move up in stakes.